UST: 2035 training scenarios, +21% university

Context

TL;DR

• UST: university schools at +21% between 2026 and 2035
• Elementary: 8% reduction over the same period
• 305,000 bachelor and master students in 2035
• Three scenarios for the main uncertainties

Key facts

• Date → October 12, 2026
• Institution → UST
• Horizon → 2026-2035
• University schools → 305,000 students in 2035
• Elementary level 3-8 → 527,000 students in 2035
• Higher specialized schools → 41,300 diplomas in 2035
• Historical period → +79% between 2005 and 2025
• Foreign bachelor's students → +19% of new students

Growth is concentrated at the upper levels

On 12 October 2026, from Neuchâtel, the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) published the main results of the 2026-2035 scenarios for the education system. The reference scenario indicates that the number of Swiss university students is expected to increase by 21% between 2026 and 2035, exceeding 300,000 at bachelor's and master's level. The growth is attributed in particular to population growth and students coming from abroad.

The number of students at universities and polytechnics (UNI), universities of applied sciences (SUP) and higher pedagogical schools (ASP) rose from 137,000 in 2005 to 246,000 in 2025, an increase of 79%. According to FSO estimates, it will reach 305,000 in 2035, 21% more than in 2026. Population growth is estimated at 6%; among new students coming from abroad, the expected increase is 19% for the bachelor's degree and 37% for the master's degree. By type of institution, the expected variations are equal to 21% for UNI, 19% for UAS and 23% for ASP.

Higher vocational education is expected to follow a positive trajectory: in specialized higher schools the student body would increase by 17% between 2026 and 2035, up to 41 300 students graduating in 2035. Degrees awarded would grow by 16%, federal diplomas by 15%, while federal professional certificates would remain almost stable, with an increase of 1%.

At secondary level the increase by 2035 should be 10% in basic vocational education and 12% in general education. The first includes the practical training certificate and the federal certificate of ability, the second the high school diploma and specialized schools. In secondary school the number of students would grow until 2031, remain stable until 2033, at +5% compared to 2026, and then rapidly decrease by 2% between 2033 and 2035.

For primary 3-8, the number of students was estimated at 566,900 in 2025. The peak is expected in 2027-2028 and the marked decline should begin in 2029, due to the decrease in births from 2022: in 2035 there would be 527,000 students, 8% less than in 2026. After 2032 the trend will be more uncertain. The share of foreign bachelor students has also changed, from 14% ten years ago to 18% currently. For this reason, the FSO considers three scenarios, also considering structural changes, the economic situation and future births.

Operational details

Four rhythms for training

Demographics come at different times

The most useful data for reading the scenario is the distance between the calendars. Demography does not produce the same effect in the same year for all age groups: elementary school reaches its maximum in 2027-2028, secondary school I continues to grow until 2031, while secondary school II continues to increase at least until 2035. University schools follow a distinct trajectory, also linked to admissions from abroad.

This scan offers a practical key to not confusing a national forecast with a uniform trend. For a family, the reference changes based on school age; for those evaluating a path, it is necessary to distinguish between basic professional training, general training, specialized high schools and university schools. They are different levels, with different times and different indicators.

The internal indicators of higher professional training must also be read separately. The press release includes the number of students, the qualifications awarded, the federal diplomas and the federal professional certificates. An increase in the student body and an increase in qualifications do not describe exactly the same thing: the first is about group size, the others about leaving with a qualification. This distinction avoids automatically transforming one percentage into another.

The international component is the second point of attention. The share of foreign bachelor's students has gone from 14% to 18% in ten years, while the FSO estimates increases in new foreign students enrolling between bachelor's and master's degrees. The reference, therefore, remains exposed to variables that do not depend only on births: structural changes, economic situation and flows from abroad.

After 2032 the same source defines the trend of the elementary school as more uncertain and invites us to consider three scenarios. Anyone who wants to support this reading with a separate table can consult the costo della vita in Svizzera and the annunci di lavoro, without attributing results contained in the UST scenario to these instruments.

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Key points

From data to decision

The communiqué provides a national scenario, not an individual choice. To use it without overlapping levels or dates, a simple sequence can be followed.

Five operational steps

1. Identify the level. Distinguish between elementary 3-8, secondary I, secondary II, higher vocational education and university schools. The first check avoids directly comparing pupils, students and qualifications.

2. Set the year of comparison. The main changes in the scenario are calculated between 2026 and 2035. Exceptions are the historical comparison between 2005 and 2025 and the share of foreign students increased from 14% to 18%.

3. Mark the time steps. For elementary school, the reference is the peak of 2027-2028 and the marked decline since 2029. For secondary I, growth until 2031, stabilization until 2033 and the subsequent decrease count. For secondary II, the increase is expected at least until 2035.

4. Separate the reference scenario from the uncertainty. The UST indicates that structural changes, future births and the economic situation are difficult variables for students from abroad to predict. The correct reading therefore includes all three scenarios.

5. Check for updates. The press release and more information on the topic can be found on the UST's website. This is the point to check when you want to follow the evolution of the hypotheses.

This method allows you to read the numbers as a time path. The peak of the elementary, the stabilization of the secondary I and the growth of the secondary II are not simultaneous steps. Even for the university, it is necessary to distinguish the demographic effect from admissions from abroad.

Those who use this data to guide a path should record the starting level, turning point, and degree of uncertainty, instead of using the final value alone. It is a way to distinguish what the FSO estimates from what the individual must evaluate.

To complete personal verification with a dedicated tool, use the calcolatore stipendio.

Source: admin.ch