Schools and universities: FSO projections to 2035

Context

TL;DR

• The peak of primary is expected between 2027 and 2028.
• From 2029, primary school enrolments will begin to decrease.
• In 2035, universities could reach 305,000 students.
• University growth is expected to be 21% over 2026.

Key facts

• Source → UST
• Primary school → 8% drop after peak
• Secondary II → 10% more in basic vocational training; 12% in general culture training
• Higher specialized schools → 17% more, 41,300 in 2035
• University → 305,000 enrolled in 2035; 21% more than in 2026

After the expected peak between 2027 and 2028, primary school pupils in Switzerland will decrease by 8% by 2035. The new projections of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), published on Monday, separate two movements: primary school education retreats, while post-compulsory education and university education advance.

The signal is demographic. The decline in births recorded from 2022 is the main cause indicated by the FSO. Elementary school enrollment will begin to decline in 2029; in lower secondary schools the reversal is expected from 2033.

The stages indicated by the FSO

In secondary school II the Confederation provides for 10% more in basic professional training and 12% in general culture training. In higher vocational education, specialized high schools are expected to grow by 17%, up to 41,300 enrolled in 2035.

The largest increase is expected in the university sector: considering universities, universities of applied sciences and pedagogical universities, the number of students enrolled in bachelor's and master's courses should reach 305,000 in 2035, with a growth of 21% compared to 2026. According to the FSO, demographic growth and the arrival of a greater number of foreign students will be driving the increase.

A FSO survey of university graduates, published in August, reports a significant increase in unemployment between 2023 and 2025, with the sole exception of graduates of university teaching colleges. The FSO urges caution: projections up to 2035 remain uncertain, especially due to the evolution of births and immigration.

Operational details

Two rhythms for the Swiss team

The FSO projections do not describe a single movement of the Swiss formation. The practical fact is succession: school levels change direction in different years, while post-compulsory education and university maintain a growth trajectory.

From a practical point of view, the calendar matters as much as the percentage. A decline in elementary schools from 2029 and a decline in lower secondary schools from 2033 do not indicate a simultaneous change in all pathways. The correct reading is therefore by level and by year, not through a single overall figure.

Comparison between levels

The comparison shows a double direction. In professional paths and general culture training, the forecast remains positive, with varying intensities; in specialized high schools the expected increase reaches 17%. The progression up to university schools leads to 305,000 students enrolled in 2035. For a reader, this means that the reduction of students in one school phase cannot describe the entire system.

Registrations and jobs are not the same data

However, the university passage must be separated from the result at work. The graduate survey cited by the FSO shows a significant growth in unemployment between 2023 and 2025, except for graduates of university teaching colleges. The increase in enrolments, therefore, does not in itself constitute a guarantee of employment outcomes.

A concrete evaluation can keep three elements distinct: the year in which the audience changes, the chosen path and the available employment data. For the last point you can consult the annunci di lavoro; for personal economic impact, the costo della vita in Svizzera. They are separate tools from the UST projections and do not replace caution on births and immigration.

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Key points

A procedure for reading 2035

Projections can be used as a time grid, not as an already acquired result. The most solid procedure consists in fixing the reference year, isolating the educational level and only then reading the employment signal.

Five operational steps

1. Set the reference. Start from 2026, the year used to compare the 305,000 enrollments expected in 2035 and the 21% growth of universities.

2. Mark school milestones. Enter the peak in primary between 2027 and 2028, the start of the decline in elementary in 2029, and the reversal in lower secondary schools from 2033.

3. Compare the post-mandatory routes. Read separately 10% of basic professional training, 12% of general culture training and 17% of specialized high schools. They are not the same training segment.

4. Separate memberships and work. Alongside university growth, the UST survey on graduates: unemployment increased between 2023 and 2025, with the exception of graduates from pedagogical university schools.

5. Keep the final warning. Consider 2035 as a projection horizon. The FSO reports uncertainties especially regarding the evolution of births and immigration.

This sequence avoids turning a national prediction into an individual certainty. First the year is identified, then the level of training and finally the work data. The result is an orderly reading of the available information, without confusing the decrease in primary school students with the expected increase in university schools.

To link the economic assessment to a personal calculation, use calcolatore stipendio.

Source: tio.ch