University growth and school decline: UST 2026-2035

Context

TL;DR

• University students will increase by more than 20% over the next nine years
• Primary schools: peak between 2027 and 2028, then -8% by 2035
• Upper secondary level II: +10% vocational, +12% general education
• Recent graduates: unemployment rising between 2023 and 2025

Key facts

• Source → FSO; scenarios for the education system 2026-2035
• Primary school → peak between 2027 and 2028; -8% by 2035
• Upper secondary → +10% basic vocational education; +12% general education
• Higher vocational education → +17%; 41'300 students at higher technical schools
• Bachelor's and master's degrees → 305'000 students by 2035; +21% compared with 2026

More than 20% more university students over the next nine years: this is the central trajectory in the Confederation's estimates for education in Switzerland. The picture comes from the scenarios for the education system 2026-2035 published today by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). According to Keystone-ATS, the FSO warns that the results are subject to uncertainty because data on births and immigration remain unclear.

From primary school to universities

Trends vary considerably by level. In primary school, the number of pupils has increased significantly in recent years. Since 2022, however, births have been declining: for this reason, the number of pupils is expected to peak between 2027 and 2028, then fall by 8% by 2035. In the initial summary, the Confederation places the decline in primary school between 2029 and 2035, after the expected peak phase.

The decline in lower secondary, i.e. middle school, is expected to begin in 2033. For upper secondary, by contrast, the FSO estimates moderate increases: +10% in basic vocational education and +12% in general education pathways. Higher vocational education is expected to increase by 17%, bringing the number of students at higher technical schools to 41'300.

At universities and universities of applied sciences, there will be 305'000 students in bachelor's and master's programs by 2035. Compared with 2026, this represents growth of 21%. The Confederation cites demographic growth and an increase in the number of foreign students as the main reasons. The direction is therefore opposite to that expected for primary school, but it concerns a different level of education.

The growth in university enrolments coincides with a more difficult period for young graduates entering the workforce. The UUG graduate survey, conducted by the FSO in August, indicates that between 2023 and 2025 unemployment among recent graduates increased significantly. The only exception is universities of teacher education.

Operational details

The practical reading of the projections

The UST figures do not describe a single cycle for the entire education system. For anyone who needs to interpret the national trend, the first key is the timeline: 2026 is the reference point for the growth of bachelor's and master's programs, primary school reaches its peak between 2027 and 2028, lower secondary level I changes direction from 2033, and the picture is measured through 2035. These are therefore different time horizons, not a single increase or a single decrease.

Pathways at different speeds

The second key is the level. The expected decline in primary school cannot automatically be transferred to upper secondary level II, where the UST still forecasts increases in both basic vocational education and general education. Higher vocational education also has a positive trend. In practical terms, the word decline therefore refers to a specific phase and level; it does not summarize the system as a whole.

For universities, the projected growth should be read together with the reasons indicated by the Confederation: demographics and foreign students. For the reader, this means keeping the number of enrolled students separate from entry into the workforce. The same source in fact points out that the increase in enrollment coincides with worsening unemployment among recent graduates in the period 2023-2025. This distinction prevents turning university growth into a guarantee of entry into employment.

For those choosing a pathway, the most useful comparison starts from the level attended and the time horizon, then separates vocational education, general education, higher vocational schools and universities. For those who have already completed their studies, the UUG data suggest observing access to employment as an indicator distinct from the number of students. The source notes the exception of universities of teacher education, so the picture is not identical for all pathways.

Operationally, the analysis can be supplemented with the opportunities available by consulting annunci di lavoro and aziende che assumono. They do not replace the UST projections, but help keep two aspects separate: the evolution of enrollment and the difficulties of entering employment reported by the survey.

Recommended tools

For an updated estimate, use the net salary calculator and the CHF-EUR exchange comparator.

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Key points

How to use scenarios for guidance

To turn the estimates into a way of reading them, it is best to proceed in a simple sequence. The aim is not to predict the individual case, but to place each choice at the correct level and in the correct year. The dates indicated by the UST are sufficient to build a structured check, without adding assumptions about births, immigration, or employment.

Five steps

1. Establish the baseline. Use 2026 as a point of comparison for bachelor’s and master’s students and always check whether the subsequent figure is expressed relative to that year. 2. Choose the level. Separate primary school, lower secondary, upper secondary, higher vocational education, universities, and universities of applied sciences. Do not put pupils and students in the same column. 3. Mark the dates. For primary school, note the peak between 2027 and 2028 and the decline phase through 2035; for lower secondary, consider the beginning of the decline from 2033. 4. Compare the pathways. In upper secondary, distinguish basic vocational education and general education; then keep higher vocational education separate, as it has its own forecast. 5. Read the employment data separately. For graduates, use the UUG survey as a reference for the period 2023-2025 and retain the exception for universities of teacher education, without extending it to the other pathways.

This framework makes it possible not to confuse the point at which the number of pupils changes with the point at which the number of university students grows. It also makes it possible to read the relationship between studies and employment cautiously: the source points to both an increase in enrolments and higher unemployment among recent graduates, but does not present them as the same measure.

The UST also warns that the estimates are subject to uncertainties linked to data on births and immigration. For this reason, the result should be used as a reference scenario, not as a guaranteed count. After separating levels and years, those seeking career guidance can move on to the site’s tools. To complete the check with an individual calculation, use the calcolatore stipendio/imposte

Source: swissinfo.ch