Health insurance premiums on the rise: heading toward 1000 francs a month

Context

TL;DR

• Next year, an average of 488 francs per month per adult
• Increase of 5%, i.e. 23 francs more
• 966.20 francs per month in the 14-year projection
• If costs rise by 5%, premiums more than doubled by 2040

Key facts

• Average amount for adults → 488 francs per month
• Increase next year → 5%, equal to 23 francs
• Projection → 966.20 francs after 14 years
• Horizon → 2040
• Expert → Tilman Slembeck, ZHAW
• Factors indicated → demographics, principle of trust, reforms

Next year, adults will pay an average of 488 francs per month for compulsory basic health insurance. The increase will be 5%, equal to 23 francs more than today. The figure is an average, but it captures the pressure that health insurance premiums exert on the monthly budget.

In just over 20 years, spending on compulsory basic health insurance has almost doubled. The new projection starts from this trend: if premiums continue to grow by an average of 5% per year, the current monthly premium would reach double, 966.20 francs, in just 14 years. For those who have to plan the cost of cassa malati, the figure indicates a long-term scenario, not an amount that has already been decided.

The projection and its conditions

The mathematical correctness of the calculation was acknowledged by Tilman Slembeck, a health economist at Zurich University of Applied Sciences, ZHAW. Contacted by 20 Minuten, he nevertheless pointed out that the financing of the healthcare system is undergoing restructuring. For this reason, it is not clear how rising costs will affect the future development of premiums.

“Mathematically, it is correct,” says Slembeck.

Overall, the expert nevertheless expects an annual percentage increase in costs of 5% or more. If this trend were to continue, adult premiums would have more than doubled by 2040 compared with today. The direction indicated by the source is therefore clear: the situation would not become more affordable.

Slembeck attributes the increases to several factors. The baby boom generation is aging; the principle of trust regarding services prescribed by doctors also has an impact. He adds to these factors the lack of any genuine political will to reform the system. In his view, reforms are difficult because the system’s stakeholders are well settled and profit from it, while those who pay the premiums and taxes remain excluded.

Operational details

The value of 488 francs becomes concrete when it enters the monthly budget. The source does not describe the premium as a problem limited to people in financial difficulty: Philipp Frei, director of the umbrella association Consulenza Budget Svizzera, says that the pressure also affects the middle class and weighs especially on families. His point concerns the money that remains available: people already have less money at their disposal each year and experience premiums as a burden.

The bill does not end with the premium

The average increase of 23 francs does not exhaust healthcare spending. On top of the premium come the deductible and everything not covered by health insurance. A budget that records only the monthly amount therefore does not reflect the full burden borne by those who have to pay for care. For a family, the difference between the premium, deductible and excluded services is not an accounting detail: it is the concrete measure of the money that may be lacking for other necessities.

The issue is therefore also connected to costo della vita, and not only to the insurance line item. When resources shrink, the choice is no longer just how much to spend, but also which treatments to postpone. Frei says he knows many people who have not gone to the doctor or dentist for years because they cannot afford the care. Postponement leaves illnesses untreated and can make the situation more costly for the individual and for society as a whole. The source also notes that, already today, some people are excluded from the healthcare system because of high premiums.

A problem that goes beyond income

The practical consequence is that the increase does not affect just one group. People experiencing financial difficulties are affected, but the pressure also concerns the middle class; for families, Frei describes it as a major burden. The 5% used in the projection should therefore be read as potential pressure on household budgets, not as a figure to be applied automatically to every household. The financing system is undergoing restructuring, and the future relationship between costs and premiums remains uncertain: this condition prevents the projection from being treated as an invoice already written.

For the reader, the practical check consists of looking at available money, the premium, deductible, uncovered services and postponed care together. These are the items that show whether the increase remains manageable or leads to foregoing medical care. To learn more about the insurance aspect, one can consult cassa malati.

Recommended tools

For an updated estimate, use the net salary calculator and the CHF-EUR exchange comparator.

Key points

A four-step check

1. Record the monthly premium paid today. The personal figure must be kept distinct from the average indicated for adults: 488 francs per month is the average benchmark for next year, not a figure presented as identical for every policyholder.

2. Isolate the average increase. The 23 francs represent the difference between next year's average and today's average. They help show the order of magnitude of the increase, but do not automatically justify treating the figure as the change in one's own bill.

3. Add the items not included in the premium. The budget sheet must also include the deductible and services not covered by health insurance. These are the two elements that the source indicates together with the premium when describing the overall burden of healthcare.

4. Prepare two time-based scenarios. The first uses the mathematical projection of 966.20 francs per month after 14 years, if average growth remains at 5% per year. The second considers 2040: with costs rising by 5% or more, adult premiums would have more than doubled compared with today. Both scenarios should be marked as hypotheses, because healthcare system financing is being restructured and the effect on premiums is unclear.

Also record what people forgo

The check should not stop at figures already paid. If a person has been putting off seeing a doctor or dentist for years because they cannot afford treatment, that sacrifice is part of the problem described by Philipp Frei. Recording it makes it possible not to confuse an avoided expense with a cost that has disappeared: according to the source, neglected illnesses can become more expensive for the person and for society. It is also the starting point for understanding the exclusion from the healthcare system reported for some people.

The process does not produce a certain forecast: it organizes the available data and separates the average premium from the other expenses. To turn this check into a dedicated assessment, use our tool on cassa malati.

Source: tio.ch