Schengen Dublin Report: Impacts on GDP and Border

Context

In brief

• The Federal Council adopted the Schengen/Dublin report on September 18, 2026
• Abandonment could reduce Swiss GDP by up to 3.9% in 2035
• Estimated annual income loss of up to 1,300 francs per capita
• Significant benefits for the economy, tourism, asylum, and internal security

Key facts

Report date: September 18, 2026 Relevance: Swiss Federal Council GDP impact in 2035: Up to 3.9 percent Per capita income loss: Up to 1,300 francs per year Reference postulate: Postulate 24.3946 of the FDP.The Liberals group

On September 18, 2026, the Swiss Federal Council adopted an important report analyzing the economic, financial, and security effects of a possible withdrawal from the Schengen and Dublin agreements with the European Union. Switzerland currently derives considerable benefits from these bilateral agreements, which ensure a smooth cross-border flow of goods and people, fundamental elements for preserving well‑being and the attractiveness of the national economic hub. According to the external study that underlies the official document prepared on behalf of the National Council through the motion of the Radical Liberal Group (RL), exiting Schengen and Dublin would have extremely severe consequences for the country by the 2035 horizon.

The report highlights that Swiss gross domestic product could contract by up to 3.9 percent in 2035, while the annual income loss per capita could reach as much as 1,300 francs. Without the current agreements, European law would indeed require neighboring countries to subject all entries and exits to strict controls, turning the Swiss border into a genuine external frontier of the Schengen area. Consequently, the Confederation would also be forced to significantly strengthen its customs infrastructure and the personnel responsible for border controls, causing a heavy disruption in the logistics and cross‑border mobility chain.

Economic Scenarios for 2035

The economic projections contained in the document clearly indicate that the lack of a free‑movement agreement would negatively affect multiple key sectors of the national economy. These include not only industry and trade in goods, but also strategic sectors such as tourism and services linked to catering and care, which heavily depend on the speed of movement and the regular inflow of international personnel and visitors. The savings resulting from the termination of cooperation would in no way cover the additional costs needed for autonomous border management and for maintaining adequate security standards, confirming that the overall benefits far outweigh the purely financial aspects.

Operational details

Analysis of impacts on key sectors and the labor market

A potential breakdown of the Schengen and Dublin agreements would cause profound disruptions and critical issues in the Swiss labor market, directly hitting the cross-border workforce and companies operating in Switzerland. Without effective cross-border free movement, estimates for 2035 indicate that cross-border workers could lose a total of 422,000 hours on working days due to massive traffic congestion generated by the new and inevitable customs controls at the border crossings. This slowdown in daily mobility would generate annual costs estimated between 1.08 and 2.27 billion francs for the Swiss economy. The reintroduction of controls would also result in a drop in the number of cross-border workers of up to 60 percent, triggering severe staff shortages especially in the economic sectors of catering and care, where foreign labor plays a structural and irreplaceable role.

Demographic and migratory dynamics

Repercussions on the labor market would not stop at the decrease in commuting workers. Due to daily transit difficulties and bureaucratic barriers at the border, the probability that up to 170,000 people will decide to permanently transfer their residence to Switzerland would increase drastically, significantly altering the demographic fabric and pressure on the residential real estate market of the border cantons. To learn more about labor market trends and current professional opportunities, you can consult the dedicated page job offers available on the portal.

Effects on tourism and the asylum sector

The tourism sector would suffer a heavy blow, since membership in Schengen currently allows travelers from third countries subject to visa requirements to move without barriers throughout the integrated area. In the absence of the agreement, tourists would face a considerable financial and administrative burden to obtain a separate Swiss visa. The study predicts a drop in demand and revenue in the Swiss tourism sector quantifiable between 320 and 810 million francs in 2035. Similarly, in the asylum sector, Switzerland would lose the procedural advantages of the Dublin system, finding itself obliged to examine applications from applicants who have already filed a claim in another participating State. The inability to carry out transfers to such States would prolong the stay of asylum seekers on Swiss territory, resulting in an increase in costs estimated between 166 and 824 million francs.

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Key points

Internal security and judicial cooperation

Beyond purely economic and financial implications, the Federal Council report highlights the invaluable value of the Schengen and Dublin databases for safeguarding Switzerland's internal security. During 2025, solely thanks to the use of the Schengen Information System known as SIS, Swiss security authorities obtained nearly 40,000 relevant and targeted hits, especially regarding individuals flagged as dangerous or wanted for criminal activities. Switzerland would not have any autonomous or national measure capable of compensating for the loss of these shared databases and international police cooperation tools. The direct consequence would be the inability to timely or fully identify threats to public security, severely hindering the effectiveness of criminal prosecution and leaving the country exposed to high criminal risks.

Operational dependence and financial sustainability

Maintaining external borders and managing autonomous national databases would require colossal financial investments that could never be offset by savings resulting from a hypothetical withdrawal from the agreements. Furthermore, the effectiveness of border controls would depend to a large extent on the cooperation and human resources provided by neighboring countries and the European Union, effectively making Switzerland dependent on foreign decisions for the management of its territory and traffic flows. Customs queues would become all the longer and more paralyzing the fewer personnel were employed by neighboring countries at checkpoints.

How to check your finances and cost of living

Faced with complex macroeconomic scenarios that can directly influence purchasing power, net salary, and the financial stability of families living in Switzerland, it is essential to carefully monitor one's economic situation and the evolution of taxes and contributions. To accurately assess your payslip, understand the impact of social deductions, and better plan your financial and tax resources, you can use our official tool available on the salary calculator page salary calculator.

Source: admin.ch