Analysts rein in their outlook for the Swiss economy

Context

In brief

• Index at +2,6 points in September
• 23,1% see an improvement, 20,5% a deterioration
• 53,5% expect the SMI to rise
• 38,7% see unemployment rising

Key facts

• Indicator → +2,6 points in September
• Change from August → -9,5 points
• Organizers → UBS and CFA Society Switzerland
• Sample → 78 analysts
• Survey → 17 and 24 September
• Horizon → next six months
• Stock market → SMI
• Currencies monitored → franc, euro and dollar

In Zurich, the index of Swiss economic prospects stood at +2,6 points in September. The figure, calculated by UBS and CFA Society Switzerland on the basis of a survey of experts from the Swiss financial community, therefore remains in positive territory, but marks a decline of 9,5 points compared with August.

A still-positive balance

The month's picture is nuanced: the balance remains positive, but optimism has receded. 23,1% of respondents forecast an improvement in economic conditions over the next six months. 20,5% instead expect a deterioration, while 56,4% see no changes. The index is derived from the difference between the first two shares: 23,1 minus 20,5 produces +2,6. The majority oriented towards the status quo does not alter the balance, but reflects a cautious stance in the survey.

Compared with August, the share of optimists fell by 7,2 points. That of pessimists rose by 2,3 points, while analysts favouring the status quo increased by 4,9 points.

Prices, rates and markets

Regarding inflation, 48,7% of respondents expect Swiss inflation to increase, compared with 5,1% expecting a decrease and 46,2% indicating stability. For short-term interest rates, 61,3% see stability and 36% an increase. Over the long term, the largest group, at 48%, expects no change; 41,3% instead expect an increase.

For the SMI, 53,5% expect an increase over the next six months, 31% stable levels and 15,5% a contraction. The share favouring an increase rose by 4,0 points compared with August. Regarding exchange rates, 44,6% expect the franc to strengthen against the euro, 18,9% a weakening and 36,5% no change. Against the dollar, the respective shares are 44,6%, 18,9% and 29,7%.

The labour market completes the picture: 38,7% expect an increase in unemployment, 58,7% stagnation and 2,7% a decrease.

The survey was conducted on 17 and 24 September and involved 78 analysts. The survey has been conducted since January 2017. Until 2023, CFA Society Switzerland's partner was Credit Suisse; it is now UBS, the bank that acquired its competitor.

Operational details

The plus sign is not enough

The +2,6 is not a single verdict on the Swiss economy. It is the result of a balance: expectations of improvement exceed those of deterioration, while the group expecting stability remains the largest. For those who live or work in Switzerland, the most accurate reading is therefore twofold: the general outlook remains positive, but confidence has weakened compared with August.

Four signals to keep distinct

For the cost of living, the survey provides an indication of direction but does not quantify the increase in inflation or indicate which expenses would be affected. Those building their budget can complement this reading with the guide on costo della vita in Svizzera, without turning an analysts' forecast into an increase that has already been applied.

The distinction also applies to rates. The largest share expecting stability in the short and long term does not eliminate the group expecting an increase; the message is one of waiting, not of a decision already announced. The same criterion applies to the SMI: the survey provides neither a numerical target nor a guarantee of the result.

As for exchange rates, the euro and dollar should be kept separate. For those who need to monitor the relationship between the franc and the euro, comparatore CHF/EUR helps keep currency analysis distinct from the general reading of the economy. Finally, in employment, the prevalence of stagnation coexists with a significant share expecting unemployment to rise. It is a mixed signal: it does not describe a single person's situation, but suggests not postponing the search for opportunities, while also consulting the annunci di lavoro.

Useful tools to protect your net income

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Key points

From reading to action

The survey does not provide an administrative procedure or a decision to apply. The practical use of the data consists of recording the survey date, separating the different indicators, and checking which scenario is being observed. This avoids confusing a financial expectation with a change that has already occurred.

Five practical steps

1. Set the time horizon. The survey was conducted on 17 and 24 September and looks at the following six months. Note this window before comparing the balance with other data.

2. Separate the balance from the individual variables. Keep economic conditions, inflation, interest rates, SMI, exchange rates and unemployment in separate columns. The positive sign of the index does not mean that all these elements are expected to improve.

3. For the household budget, treat inflation as a scenario. Write down whether the expectation is for an increase, stability or decrease, then compare it with your actual expenses through the guide to costo della vita in Svizzera. Do not attribute an amount to the survey that it does not report.

4. For the exchange rate, indicate the reference currency first. The survey distinguishes expectations for the franc against the euro from those for the franc against the dollar; if you are assessing a conversion into euros, use comparatore CHF/EUR and do not add the two signals.

5. For employment and investments, use two separate checks. You can update your research by consulting annunci di lavoro; for the SMI, instead note the expectation of a rise, stability or contraction without turning it into a promise of returns.

A final check concerns the source of the figures. The 78 analysts belong to the Swiss financial community, the survey has existed since January 2017, and until 2023 the partner of CFA Society Switzerland was Credit Suisse; it is now UBS. These elements describe the survey and help prevent it from being confused with other data.

Among the related content there is also a distinct figure: in Ticino, the increase in health insurance premiums for 2027 is indicated at 3.7%. It is not a component of the index on economic prospects, so it should be kept separate from the reading on inflation, interest rates, the stock market, currencies and unemployment.

To turn these variables into a personal income check, use calcolatore stipendio.

Source: tio.ch