Vote 27 September: 63% no to neutrality

Context

In brief

• Over 60% of voters intend to reject both federal initiatives.
• Sharp drop in support for neutrality and food security in early September.
• Popular vote scheduled for September 27 in all Cantons.

Key facts

• Survey: according to the gfs.bern survey for SSR (SBC)
• Referendum date: September 27
• Neutrality initiative: promoted by the Pro Suisse committee
• Neutrality result: 63% opposed, 34% in favor
• Food security result: 64% opposed, 33% in favor

A clear majority of the Swiss electorate is preparing to reject both texts submitted to the federal vote on September 27, according to the second survey conducted by the gfs.bern institute for the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation SBC. Indeed, over 60% of those interviewed declare their intention to vote no on both the neutrality proposal and the food security proposal. Support for both projects has visibly declined compared to the first survey conducted in early August. Had the consultation taken place in early September, 63% would have rejected the initiative titled 'Safeguarding Swiss neutrality', with a nine-point percentage jump in opposition. At the same time, the front of supporters has dropped by eight points, settling at 34%.

The rejection of the Pro Suisse initiative

The neutrality initiative, launched by the Pro Suisse committee, aims to directly enshrine the principle of a 'permanent and armed' Swiss neutrality in the Federal Constitution. However, the text faces strong cross-cutting opposition from almost all major Swiss political parties, from the Greens to the Liberals. Voters faithfully follow party lines: more than three-quarters of the supporters of these political forces declare a vote against. The rejection is particularly clear among Liberal Green voters, who reach 96% opposition. The Swiss People's Party (SVP) remains the only major party to formally support the proposal. Among its ranks, 77% of voters support the initiative, although the figure shows a nine-point percentage drop compared to the first survey. Independent voters have also changed their minds: 59% now reject the text, whereas a month earlier, more than half were in favor. Even among voters with a lower level of education, who were initially more inclined to vote yes, 54% now declare themselves opposed.

Operational details

The opposition to the initiative «For safe food» has developed with even greater rapidity on a federal scale. The text calls for incentives for plant-based food production to increase the country's food self-sufficiency rate, but it has been met with almost unanimous rejection. Currently, 64% of citizens oppose the measure, marking a 15-point increase in opponents, while support has dropped by 14 points to 33%. The Federal Parliament has rejected the proposal unanimously. Despite attempts by left-wing parties and the Liberal Greens to propose a counterproject, no alternative has found approval, leaving the text without institutional support.

On a geographical level, data collected by gfs.bern highlights a convergence between the different linguistic realities of the Confederation, an element closely monitored by federal offices such as UST/BFS and SECO in the analysis of civic sentiment. Regarding the neutrality initiative, in German-speaking Switzerland, 64% of respondents declare they want to vote no. In Romandy, opposition increases by 14 percentage points and reaches 63%. Italian-speaking Switzerland, on the other hand, shows a more balanced fracture: 48% supports the initiative promoted by Pro Suisse, compared to 47% opposed. For the food initiative, the no front dominates everywhere: opposition peaks at 66% in German-speaking Switzerland. Initially, Latin cantons had shown sympathy for the food text, but support has collapsed by 19 points in Romandy and by 16 points in Italian-speaking Switzerland. Rejection also crosses age groups: 58% of voters between 18 and 39 years old reject the food proposal, as do 59% of women. Among parties, while three-quarters of the Greens still vote in favor, support among socialists has slipped below 50%. Furthermore, the Liberal Greens have reversed their orientation: 52% now explicitly oppose the food measure.

Recommended tools

For an updated estimate, use the net salary calculator and the CHF-EUR exchange comparator.

Key points

For residents called to the polls on September 27, the decisions on the two objects up for vote will have indirect repercussions on the overall framework of the Confederation, ranging from the debate on international relations led by the Federal Council to supply policies that may impact the cost of living. According to analyses by the gfs.bern institute, a reversal of the trend on the Pro Suisse initiative would require a massive mobilization of the SVP (UDC) electorate combined with a radical shift in the rest of the population, a scenario for which the institute detects no signs. Even on the food front, urban and suburban areas have aligned with rural zones, which have historically been skeptical of production constraints aimed at the plant sector.

Voting methods and civic tools

Those entitled to vote in Switzerland receive the official postal voting material directly at their home in the various Cantons several weeks before the set date. The procedure for participating in the democratic consultation follows precise steps:

• Receipt of the official envelope containing the Federal Chancellery’s information sheets, voting certificates, and ballot papers.
• Manual completion of the ballot, expressing ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ for each of the two federal questions.
• Signing the voting certificate in the designated space to validate the vote.
• Sending the stamped envelope by post before the deadline indicated by your municipality, or direct delivery to the municipal chancery of residence by the closing time of the polling stations on September 27.

To accurately plan your personal budget and assess the economic impact of federal political and fiscal decisions on your disposable income, it is always useful to use our free calculator.

Source: lenews.ch