GLP-1 anti-obesity drugs: impact on the food industry

Context

TL;DR

• In Switzerland, less than 2% are undergoing GLP-1 therapy
• In the US, food budgets fall by up to 5%
• Emmi, Danone and Nestlé adapt their product ranges
• Givaudan estimates annual growth of 9%

Key facts

• GLP-1 therapy in Switzerland → below 2% last year
• Food budget in the USA → reduction of up to 5%
• Growth estimated by Givaudan → around 9% annually over the next five years
• Overweight Swiss population → 43% in 2022
• Swiss population meeting obesity criteria → 12% in 2022
• Data on Swiss therapy → analysis by Helsana for AWP

Last year, in Switzerland, the share of the population undergoing treatment with GLP-1 drugs stood below 2%. The figure comes from an analysis conducted by Helsana, the country’s largest health insurer, on behalf of AWP. According to ATS, the percentage remains modest, but over the same number of years it has increased nearly tenfold.

The Keystone-ATS service places this development within a broader transformation of the food industry. The motto Eat less, eat better accompanies new treatments for obesity and overweight and puts pressure on a sector traditionally geared toward immediate gratification.

Théodore Duval-Segard, head of the food sector at AlphaValue, notes that the majority of publicly listed companies in Europe active in the food and beverage sector focus their activities on alcohol, sugar, chocolate and fats. Certified dietitian Natalie Bez, who conducts research at the Bern University of Applied Sciences, likewise believes that these products are ill-advised for the general population and even less suitable for those who want to lose weight.

According to Duval-Segard, what initially might have seemed like a fad is becoming a structural phenomenon: the spread of GLP-1 therapies and the decline in their prices are prompting food group executives to rethink their product ranges.

The analyst estimates that the share of the stock-market capitalization of the food and beverage industry compatible with GLP-1 does not exceed 10%. Three companies are exceptions, however: Danone, the French giant active in the water and yogurt sectors; Emmi, a dairy company based in Lucerne; and Ebro Foods, a Spanish company specializing in rice and pasta.

For the Swiss companies mentioned, the change concerns not only the volume of food consumed. The source describes a review of product ranges, portions and nutritional profiles, with proteins assigned a central role. The market remains in a different phase from the North American one, where the use of these treatments is already much more widespread.

Operational details

The comparison of data and strategies

Percentages do not measure the same thing

The first comparison requires caution because the available data refer to different measures. In the United States, recent studies have found that households affected by the treatments may reduce their food budget by up to 5%. In Switzerland, by contrast, the figure below 2% indicates the share of the population undergoing GLP-1 therapy last year. The first figure concerns a household's spending; the second measures the prevalence of the treatment in the population.

The 5% is therefore not an estimate of the cost of living in Switzerland and cannot be used to calculate how much Swiss households spend. The source does not provide a national equivalent for the food budget. It does, however, show the direction observed in the United States: fewer snacks and sugary products, more fresh food, smaller portions and protein-rich products.

The composition of the product offering explains why companies start from different positions. Danone and Emmi are identified as the best positioned because of their activities related to milk processing. Emmi's portfolio is already rich in protein and also includes high-end desserts. Duval-Segard attributes a particular positioning to the Lucerne-based company precisely because desserts can preserve moments of pleasure in the diet of patients undergoing GLP-1 therapy.

Nestlé follows a different path. Faced with an issue considered essentially incompatible with its business model, the Vaud-based multinational developed a completely new offering for patients undergoing GLP-1 therapy and introduced it in the United States in 2024. The company is also betting on protein-enriched beverages.

The comparison also concerns ingredient technology. The addition of protein strongly alters the taste and requires reformulation to mask the effect. For this reason, Givaudan, the Geneva-based group known above all for fragrances, identifies an opportunity in the Flavors division. Ebro Foods completes the group of exceptions cited by the analyst, with its specialization in rice and pasta.

Key points

The scope of Swiss data

Still concentrated in North America

For the time being, the GLP-1 phenomenon is most widespread in North America. Recent observations indicate that these treatments have been prescribed to more than one in ten adults to combat diabetes or overweight. In Switzerland, by contrast, the therapy concerned less than 2% of the population last year, although the share was nearly ten times that of ten years earlier.

The article links the possibility of further growth to the prevalence of overweight among the Swiss population. In 2022, the Federal Statistical Office, FSO, estimated that 43% of people were overweight and 12% met the criteria for obesity. These figures describe the condition of the population, not the number of patients taking GLP-1 drugs. They therefore do not allow a direct forecast of future sales or treatments.

The figure compiled by Helsana also has a precise scope: it measures the population undergoing treatment and does not describe premiums, reimbursements or the rules of LAMal/KVG. The source also does not indicate how many treatments were prescribed for diabetes and how many for overweight in Switzerland. This distinction makes it impossible to turn the growth recorded over ten years into a detailed estimate of the national market.

Protein, taste and reformulation

From a nutritional perspective, Natalie Bez considers it a priority to ensure sufficient protein intake alongside a balanced diet that includes minerals, vitamins, whole grains, fruit and vegetables. For the industry, increasing protein content is problematic because it can significantly alter the taste of food. According to Duval-Segard, producers must modify product formulations to mitigate this consequence.

Givaudan is trying to turn this difficulty into an opportunity for its Flavours division. This summer, director Antoine Khalil estimated annual growth of around 9% over the next five years for the market he was referring to, adding that the group intends to benefit from it more than proportionally.

Nestlé provides another documented element: the range intended for GLP-1 patients was launched in 2024 in the United States, not in Switzerland. The source provides no data on the Swiss sales of the companies mentioned, market shares, the impact on consumer prices or any new products intended for the national market. The available picture therefore concerns announced strategies, prevalence data and an industry estimate, not a comprehensive forecast for the Swiss economy.

Source: swissinfo.ch