Gasoline price shock in Switzerland: how much does the war cost

Context

TL;DR

• Since February, petrol has risen to 2,11 francs per litre
• 15'000 km per year and 6 l/100 km: 423 francs more
• Kerosene costs twice as much as last year
• Oil at 180 dollars could slow growth

Key facts

• Petrol → from 1,64 to 2,11 francs per litre
• Annual increase → 423 francs for the specified TCS profile
• Swiss flights → flights to Dubai resuming from October 27
• Kerosene → price doubled compared with last year
• Oil → from 100 to 120 dollars: another 10-15 cents per litre
• KOF scenario → oil at 180 dollars and inflation temporarily above 2%

Since February, petrol in Switzerland has risen from 1,64 to 2,11 francs per litre. The Touring Club Suisse figure translates the geopolitical crisis into an immediate expense: with 15'000 kilometres per year, average consumption of six litres per 100 kilometres and the indicated price, the additional outlay reaches 423 francs per year. Diesel and heating oil have recorded significant price increases since the start of the war in Iran, according to Avenergy.

The bill already visible for motorists and travellers

For those considering a trip, the risk mainly concerns routes to Asia. To bypass several Middle Eastern airspaces and comply with the ban on overflying Russia, airlines have fewer alternatives. Longer routes increase consumption and costs, with possible repercussions for passengers. Following the Houthi attacks on Riyadh airport, Swiss has not announced any further changes and confirms the resumption of flights to Dubai from October 27.

The price of kerosene, explains aviation expert Hansjörg Bürgi, has already doubled compared with last year. Fuel accounts for around one third of airlines’ expenses: if carriers were to extend their routes further, fares could increase. The attacks also risk delaying Riyadh’s development as an international hub by years, to the benefit of Istanbul, Addis Ababa, Paris and London.

The risk is also reaching shops. If energy remains expensive for a long time, producing and transporting goods will cost more, potentially leading to price increases on shelves and renewed pressure on inflation. Jan-Egbert Sturm, director of KOF, considers Switzerland relatively well placed: it depends less on heavy industry than other European countries, and the strong franc eases the cost of energy imports. The phenomenon also affects costo della vita in Svizzera.

However, KOF points to a risk for exports: a global slowdown would reduce demand for Swiss products. In a scenario with oil at 180 dollars per barrel, growth could slow in the following year and inflation temporarily exceed 2%, while remaining below 2% on an annual average. For Marcus Schneider, the conflict is now a regional crisis; according to the political scientist, a full-scale escalation is already under way, and it remains to be seen how much worse it could become.

Operational details

Three scenarios for the Swiss portfolio

The most immediate figure is the TCS figure, but it is not a rate that is the same for everyone. The 423 francs are based on a specific profile: 15'000 kilometres per year, six litres per 100 kilometres and the jump from 1,64 to 2,11 francs per litre. The useful comparison for a family is therefore between its own mileage, average consumption and the indicated change, without automatically extending that result to every motorist.

From the observed price increase to the future risk

The practical distinction is between what has already happened and what depends on how the crisis evolves. The source identifies three developments that can also be seen in day-to-day life:

| Scenario | Effect indicated in the source | | Oil from 100 to 120 dollars per barrel | Another 10-15 cents per litre at the pump | | Oil at 180 dollars per barrel | Weaker growth in the following year and inflation temporarily above 2% | | High energy prices for a long time | More expensive production and transport, with possible price increases on store shelves |

The first scenario is linked to new supply disruptions, while commodities expert Bekim Laski points out that, at the moment, a further surge is not the most likely scenario. The figure therefore serves as a stress threshold, not as an automatic forecast for every motorist.

For air tickets, the pressure stems from the combination of two costs: fuel and route distance. Any increase would not necessarily affect every flight, but the risk is more evident on routes to Asia, where avoided airspace and the ban on flying over Russia narrow the alternatives. The planned resumption of Swiss connections to Dubai from October 27 remains the announced reference point.

From an economic standpoint, the strong franc offers partial protection for energy imports, while lower dependence on heavy industry sets Switzerland apart from other European countries. The downside is foreign demand: if the global economy slows, Swiss exports may suffer. The comparatore CHF/EUR helps isolate the role of the exchange rate when assessing this factor.

Duration matters more than an isolated peak, according to Sturm. For this reason, a temporary rise in oil prices does not automatically amount to a recession: the KOF model indicates average annual inflation still below 2% in the scenario described, even if the threshold may be exceeded temporarily.

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Key points

A practical five-step check

Anyone who needs to organize their budget can separate costs already observed from scenarios that are still open. The method does not eliminate uncertainty, but it avoids confusing a TCS figure with an assumption about oil.

From certain expenses to scenarios

1. Start with your consumption profile. List your annual kilometers and average consumption; then compare them with the reference used by TCS, 15'000 kilometers and six liters per 100. The value of 423 francs helps gauge the order of magnitude of the case described, not assign the same expense to every motorist.

2. Keep the price increases already reported separate. Gasoline, diesel and heating oil are the items identified as having already increased. For oil, instead, note separately the scenario of 100 to 120 dollars per barrel and the estimated effect of 10-15 cents per liter. It is a simulation linked to new supply disruptions, not a price announcement.

3. If you are considering a flight to Asia, consider the route in addition to the displayed price. Avoided airspace and the ban on flying over Russia can lengthen the journey. For Swiss, the source reports the planned resumption of connections with Dubai from October 27 and no further changes announced after the Houthi attacks against Riyadh airport.

4. For everyday spending, observe the link between energy, transport and store shelves. If energy prices remain high for a long time, the production and transport of goods may become more expensive. This is the step to follow when assessing costo della vita in Svizzera, without confusing the risk with a price increase already generalized across all products.

5. Finally, use the KOF scenario as an interpretive limit: oil at 180 dollars per barrel, weaker growth in the following year and inflation temporarily above 2%, but below 2% on an annual average. The global slowdown remains the channel that may hit demand for Swiss products and exports. A recession, however, is not automatic according to the reported analysis.

This sequence offers a concrete basis: measure your consumption, distinguish the increase already visible from the risk, check the route of a trip and assess the macroeconomic effect. To translate these items into your personal budget, use calcolatore stipendio/imposte.

Source: tio.ch