Cross-border workers’ salaries in 2027: 1% nominal increase according to UBS

Context

TL;DR

• Nominal wages 2027: 1%; this year they were at 1,1%
• Inflation 2027: 0,8%; real wage increase: 0,2%
• Energy, supply and recycling: 1,5%
• Hotels and restaurants: 0,6%; summer from May 1, 2027

Key facts

• Source → Ubs
• Sample → 400 companies
• Nominal estimate 2027 → 1%
• Forecast inflation 2027 → 0,8%
• Seasonal contracts → 30 April 2027 and 1 May 2027

2027 wages: the national estimate

In 2027, the wages of cross-border workers in Switzerland are expected to grow by 1% in nominal terms. This is indicated by Ubs's periodic survey, conducted on a representative sample of 400 companies. For the current year, the reported figure is 1,1%: the comparison therefore shows a reduction of 0,1 percentage points in the expected rate.

From the nominal percentage to the real percentage

The definition used in the source helps interpret the figure: 1% is a nominal increase, that is, calculated before the impact of depreciation. Ubs forecasts inflation of 0,8% for 2027. Subtracting the two values, real wage growth amounts to 0,2%, as indicated by the same estimate. The result remains below the long-term average and below the estimated purchasing-power gain for the current year, equal to 0,4%.

The inflation estimates have been updated. For this year, inflation is expected to average 0,7%, following an upward revision from 0,6% due to higher oil prices. In 2027, the forecast reaches 0,8%, that is, 0,2 percentage points higher than the September estimate. This helps explain why, in Ubs's projections, nominal growth of 1% corresponds to a more limited real increase.

For those working across the border, the distinction between nominal and real is the central point of the update: the first figure concerns the gross increase in remuneration, while the second reflects the result after forecast inflation. However, this is not the same amount for every payslip. The source provides an average for Swiss companies and, as the sectoral distribution shows, does not assign the same percentage to all activities. A breakdown by sector is therefore necessary to interpret the estimate relating to cross-border workers.

Operational details

Sectors and minimum wages in tourism

The national average of 1% is only the general reference. Ubs sees a nominal adjustment of 1% in the majority of productive sectors, but points to deviations in some activities. Comparing the percentages reported by the source makes the distance from the average easier to see.

Among the sectors with a specified percentage, the difference between the highest and lowest values is therefore 0,9 percentage points. Energy, supply and recycling exceed the average by 0,5 points; watchmaking and jewelry, and retail trade, remain below the national benchmark. These are arithmetic comparisons between estimates, not amounts automatically applicable to every worker.

The case of Category II

In the tourism sector, and particularly among hotels and restaurants, the increase expected for next year is limited to 0,6%. The source identifies this sector as the one employing a substantial share of Italian cross-border workers. Here, the increase in minimum wages had already been formalized by the social partners and was calibrated to expected inflation.

The joint note cited by the source had been issued by the employers' associations GastroSuisse, HotellerieSuisse and Swiss Catering Association and by the workers' organizations Hotel & Gastro Union, Syna and Unia. For an employee or cross-border worker holding a federal certificate of practical training or an equivalent qualification (Cat. II), the gross monthly salary will rise from 4.070 to 4.094 francs. The increase is therefore 24 gross francs per month.

The agreement allowed the parties to focus on negotiating the new collective labor agreement. The amount indicated is gross and concerns the category described by the source; it does not automatically correspond to the net amount received by every cross-border worker.

Key points

Seasons, health insurance premiums and limits of the forecast

In the case of seasonal contracts, the updated minimum wages will enter into force with the opening of the summer season. The winter period will end no later than April 30, 2027; the summer period will begin the following day, May 1, 2027. The two dates mark the seasonal transition indicated by the source and accompany the application of minimum increases in the sector.

Health insurance premiums

Ubs analysts link the limited growth in real wages to consumers' spending capacity and also point to the increase in health insurance premiums.

Ubs analysts explain that modest growth in real wages should support consumers' purchasing power only marginally; meanwhile, the average increase in health insurance premiums, estimated at 5% in 2027, reduces disposable income.

The reference to 5% concerns the expected average increase in premiums in 2027. The source does not provide the individual premium of a worker or a specific item on their payslip. The analysts' assessment therefore remains distinct from the estimate of 1% for salaries and the actual calculation of 0.2%.

What is not included in the estimate

Ubs's survey is not a simulation of net pay and does not provide a local breakdown of the 400 companies. Nor does it indicate how many companies in the sample are located in Canton Ticino. These elements therefore cannot be used to convert the average salary into an individual's net pay or to attribute a specific result to a single cross-border commuter.

For the tax framework that the source does not develop, the FTA information sheet is the official reference listed among the verified data; the document remains separate from the wage survey. For a numerical comparison of the gross change in one's own situation, payslip simulator is available.

Source: comozero.it