Real estate investments: good confidence, Ticino negative

Context

In brief

• SRESI 2026: 47,5 points, compared with 69,5 in 2025
• Moderate price growth expected in Switzerland
• Ticino and Lugano are in negative territory
• Zurich, Central Switzerland and Lake Geneva lead

• Index → SRESI
• Publication → annual, KPMG
• Survey → approximately 370 specialists
• Horizon → following twelve months
• 2024 → 29,9 points
• 2023 → -77,4 points, negative record
• Highest value since 2012 → 69,5 points in 2025
• Economic center trending downward → Lugano

In 2026, the Swiss Real Estate Sentiment Index (SRESI) stood at 47,5 points, after 69,5 in 2025. Confidence in real estate investments remains good in Switzerland, but the figure is lower than the previous year and Ticino is moving in a different direction from the areas with the most favorable expectations.

The SRESI is published annually by KPMG and gathers experts' expectations regarding the sector's development over the following twelve months. The 2026 edition is based on a survey conducted among approximately 370 specialists. The series shows 29,9 points in 2024 and -77,4 in 2023, a negative record; 2025, on the other hand, was the highest value since 2012, the year from which the indicator has been calculated.

A declining index, but not a turning point

“The real estate investment market remains solid, despite moderate economic expectations,” comments Beat Seger, a KPMG expert, quoted in a press release.

According to Seger, the decline in the index does not signal a reversal in trend, but rather a normalization after the previous year, which had proved exceptionally strong. This interpretation explains why the 2026 result is lower than that of 2025 without being presented as a change in the market's direction.

Differences on the Swiss map

The forecasts for the most marked price increases still concern Zurich, Central Switzerland and the Lake Geneva region. Lugano is instead the only economic center for which experts expect prices to decline, while Ticino as a whole is in negative territory.

The distance between these areas and Ticino is the clearest territorial feature of the survey. On the one hand, the national picture maintains a forecast of moderate price growth; on the other, the survey indicates a more cautious direction for the canton and a negative one for Lugano. The result is therefore not a ranking of current prices, but a map of specialists' expectations for the following twelve months. KPMG describes a real estate investment market that is still solid, despite moderate economic expectations.

Operational details

For those who live or work in Switzerland, the practical value of the index lies in the comparison between the national and local scales. The forecast of moderate price growth does not produce the same signal in every area: Ticino is indicated to be in negative territory, and Lugano is the only economic center with downward expectations. The correct reading therefore starts with the place to which the question refers.

The first step is to define the scope. National data describes Switzerland's overall outlook, but it does not replace the reading referring to Ticino. For those observing Zurich, Central Switzerland or the Lake Geneva region, the reference is the expectation of more pronounced increases indicated by experts; for Ticino, the reported signal is more cautious.

The second step is to separate forecast from result. SRESI illustrates experts' expectations for the following twelve months: the score should therefore be treated as an indication of the expected direction, not as the price already achieved by a property. It should not automatically be turned into an individual certainty.

The third step is to read 2026 together with the previous year. The decline compared with 2025, according to Beat Seger's explanation, is a normalization after an exceptionally strong year and not a reversal of the trend. For the reader, this avoids confusing a lower index with a judgment that the market is in crisis.

This results in a simple grid: area, twelve-month horizon, expected direction and caution in decision-making. The grid does not add data to the survey; it serves to avoid flattening the difference between the moderate growth forecast at national level and Ticino's negative territory. Those wishing to place the real-estate topic alongside a broader picture can consult costo della vita in Svizzera, keeping the two instruments and their respective purposes distinct.

Recommended tools

For an updated estimate, use the net salary calculator and the CHF-EUR exchange comparator.

Key points

To turn the survey into concrete support for your own assessment, it is advisable to follow a fixed sequence. The objective is not to produce a new forecast, but to correctly record the one published by KPMG and apply it only to the scope of interest.

A four-step worksheet

1. Note the horizon. The SRESI looks at the following twelve months; the reference date of the survey is 2026. Therefore, always write the year and horizon next to the score.

2. Record the series. List in a column 47,5 points for 2026, 69,5 for 2025, 29,9 for 2024 and -77,4 for 2023. Next to the series, note that 2023 is the record low and that 2025 is the highest value since 2012.

3. Indicate the area. If the assessment concerns Ticino, mark negative territory; if it concerns Lugano, mark expectations of falling prices; for Zurich, Central Switzerland and Lake Geneva, note the most pronounced expected increases.

4. Separate data and decision. State that these are the expectations of approximately 370 specialists, not a guaranteed result. Use Seger's interpretation of normalization to support the comparison, without replacing it with broader conclusions.

At the end of the worksheet, formulate the question precisely: are you looking at the Swiss overview or Ticino? Are you interested in the twelve-month horizon or the historical comparison? The answers do not change the data, but they prevent using a national indication to automatically describe Lugano. The same method makes it possible to compare future annual editions without confusing the new survey with the previous one.

If the overview examined is national, retain the phrase moderate growth; if it is cantonal, retain the specification about Ticino. If it concerns Lugano, note the specific signal for the economic center. This discipline prevents presenting as homogeneous a snapshot that is differentiated in the text.

To organize the rest of your personal overview, you can consult the guide to conti bancari in Svizzera. To connect this reading to your personal overview, use calcolatore stipendio/imposte.

Source: tio.ch