Real estate investments: Ticino bucks the trend

Context

In brief

• SRESI at 47,5 points in 2026
• It was at 69,5 points in 2025
• Lugano expects prices to fall
• Ticino is in negative territory

Key facts

• Index: Swiss Real Estate Sentiment Index (SRESI)
• Published by: KPMG
• Survey: approximately 370 specialists
• 2026 value: 47,5 points
• 2025 value: 69,5 points
• 2024 value: 29,9 points
• 2023 value: -77,4 points
• Sharpest increases: Zurich, Central Switzerland and Lake Geneva

In 2026, the Swiss Real Estate Sentiment Index (SRESI) stood at 47,5 points. The indicator published annually by KPMG measures experts' expectations regarding the performance of the real estate sector over the following twelve months.

The survey is based on responses from approximately 370 specialists. The 2026 result is lower than the 69,5 points recorded in 2025, the highest value since 2012, when calculation of the indicator began. The series also shows an improvement compared with the 29,9 points recorded in 2024 and the -77,4 points in 2023, described as a negative record.

A correction after the strongest year

KPMG describes the real estate investment market as solid, despite moderate economic expectations. Beat Seger, an expert at the consulting firm, argues that the decline in the index does not represent a reversal of trend, but rather a normalization after an exceptionally strong previous year.

«The real estate investment market remains solid, despite moderate economic expectations».

The distinction is the interpretive point offered by the survey. The 47,5 for 2026 signals a more restrained level of confidence than in 2025, while comparison with previous years places the figure above the 2024 level and far from the 2023 negative record. The index therefore does not describe a single property or a single transaction: it collects the assessment of the specialists surveyed by KPMG regarding the expected development of the sector.

Ticino outside the prevailing picture

The geographic component introduces a clear difference. The sharpest price increases are once again expected in Zurich, Central Switzerland and the Lake Geneva region. Lugano, on the other hand, is the only economic center where experts expect prices to fall. Ticino is also in negative territory.

For interpreting the news, this is the specific figure for Ticino: the decline in the index in Switzerland coexists with different regional expectations. The source does not present a uniform trend for the whole of Switzerland and explicitly separates the signal from Lugano and Ticino from that of the other areas mentioned.

Operational details

The national figure and the map of expectations should be read together. A 47,5 in 2026 does not convey the same signal for every area: the source associates expectations of more pronounced increases with three areas and identifies Lugano as the only economic center where prices are expected to fall. For those observing the Swiss market, the first practical consequence is to avoid treating the national figure as an identical snapshot from Zurich to Ticino.

The comparison between areas

The table reorganizes the expectations described by the source and shows where sentiment is more favorable or weaker. It does not replace a specific price for a property. The time horizon remains the twelve months following the survey: the parameter therefore concerns the expected development of the sector, not the result already recorded for a property.

For a reader living in Switzerland, the usefulness lies in separating three questions. The first concerns the general level of confidence, which has fallen compared with 2025. The second concerns the geographical direction, with the group made up of Zurich, Central Switzerland and Lake Geneva on one side and Lugano-Ticino on the other. The third concerns the period observed, limited to the following twelve months. Confusing these aspects would lead to reading 47,5 as a single forecast for every city, whereas the same survey signals a countertrend in Ticino.

The figure can be considered alongside costo della vita in Svizzera only as a separate reading tool: SRESI concerns expectations about real estate investments, whereas the cost-of-living comparison addresses a different question. Keeping the two indicators separate makes it clearer that the source does not directly measure everyday spending.

Recommended tools

For an updated estimate, use the net salary calculator and the CHF-EUR exchange comparator.

Key points

Anyone who wants to use the survey as a starting point can turn it into a small reading sheet, without adding numbers that the index does not provide.

Four steps for reading the data

1. Fix the time horizon. The SRESI published by KPMG looks at the following twelve months. Each assessment should therefore refer to that period, not to a different time span. 2. Record the annual comparison. Put the 2026 figure next to the 2025 figure: 47,5 versus 69,5 points. To expand the series, add the 2024 and 2023 values, respectively 29,9 and -77,4 points. 3. Separate the areas. In one column, mark the three areas where the sharpest increases are expected and in another Lugano, the only economic centre with expectations of falling prices. List Ticino separately, shown as being in negative territory. 4. Classify the source. Remember that this is an index based on a survey of approximately 370 specialists and that it describes expectations regarding the development of the sector. Do not replace this indication with a price referring to a specific property, because that data is not contained in the survey.

How to use the comparison

The sheet allows you to look first at the Swiss picture and then at the area of interest, without flattening the difference between the regions. It can be updated when KPMG publishes the next annual edition, keeping values, places and reference period separate. In this way, the reader retains the comparison between 2026 and 2025, but does not lose the previous series or the distinctive nature of the Ticino signal.

To complement the reading with tools on the site, you can open the dichiarazione delle imposte. To complete the verification of your own financial picture, use the calcolatore stipendio.

Source: swissinfo.ch