What is the significance of the decline in the Reri INDEX?

MoneyPark's RERI index fell to 3.5 points in Q2 2026, the first time in three years. This drop signals that the risk of a housing bubble is decreasing. The index is now in a medium risk zone (grade 2 out of 5), which implies that the Swiss real estate market, while remaining solid, is less exposed to violent price corrections. The decline is mainly due to a less marked increase in real estate prices, although the demand for owned homes remains supported by low interest rates.

Why are prices growing less, but demand remains high?

The low interest rates of the Swiss National Bank continue to make the purchase of real estate attractive, because they lower the cost of mortgages. However, after years of rapid revaluations, the market is entering a phase of equilibrium: supply is improving thanks to increased construction activity in some regions, and demand, although stable, is no longer able to generate upward pressures as in the past. This means that prices will grow more slowly than in recent years.

What factors could change this trend in the coming quarters?

According to MoneyPark experts, two variables are crucial: the level of immigration and regional construction activity. If immigration falls, demand for housing could decline, putting downward pressure on prices. On the contrary, if construction increases and creates a greater supply of real estate, the market remains balanced. The Reri INDEX is expected to remain at current levels or fall slightly, as long as the economic climate remains stable and rates remain low.

What are the key factors now for those who want to buy a home?

In a more selective market, the location of the property, its construction quality and the structure of the financing become even more important. Buyers will have to rigorously evaluate the sustainability of their investment, verifying the accessibility of services, the quality of the energy and the structure, and the proximity to economic centers. Not all properties will appreciate at the same rate; those in strong, quality positions will remain competitive in the medium term.

Property bubble risk declining, first time in three years (cross-border guide)

Di Redazione Frontaliere Ticino · Published on 26 August 2026

Swiss construction site with modern residential buildings against Alpine mountain backdrop at golden hour

MoneyPark's RERI index drops to 3.5 points in Q2 2026 - the first time in three years. Market becomes more selective, prices grow less, rates remain low.

Context

In a nutshell

RERI MoneyPark drops to 3.5 points in Q2 2026, first time in three years
Real estate risk passes to medium level (grade 2 out of 5), bubble in retreat
Property prices grow less, low rates maintain solid demand
Market becomes more selective: quality and location of the property are crucial

Key facts

What: Real ESTATE risk index drops to 3.5 points in Q2 2026
When: Second quarter 2026, first decline in three years
Where: Switzerland (national level)
Who: MoneyPark, a mortgage brokerage and advisory firm
Previous value: 3.7 points in Q1 2026; identical to Q2 2025
Current risk: Medium, grade 2 on a 5-level scale
Main factor: Less marked growth in real estate prices
Interest rates: They remain low, they support the demand for property

The Swiss real estate risk barometer recorded its first decline in three years. The Reri (Real Estate Risk Index) of MoneyPark, a company specializing in mortgage consulting and brokerage, fell to 3.5 points in the second quarter of 2026, compared to 3.7 points in the previous quarter. Although the value is identical to the same period last year, it is the first time since the beginning of the observation period that the indicator decreases, signaling a reversal in the trend of real estate bubble risk.

The index is placed in a medium-grade 2 risk zone on a scale that counts five-a ranking that reflects

Operational details

What will change in the Swiss market

MoneyPark experts expect the RERI index to remain at current levels or register a slight further decline in the coming quarters. This forecast is based on three main factors: the improvement in the overall economic climate, the slowdown in upward pressure on real estate prices, and the persistence of low interest rates. However, two variables remain critical in determining the future evolution of the market.

The first concerns immigration. If the migratory flow to Switzerland were to decrease significantly, the demand for housing could suffer a contraction. Housing demand has been one of the engines of real estate growth in recent years: more people looking for residences means more buyers and renters. A slowdown in immigration would take pressure off the demand side, with possible price implications, especially in urban areas where competition for living space is already high.

The second variable concerns construction activity at the regional level. If the cantons and municipalities actually increase their construction capacity, creating a greater supply of new homes, this would help to further balance the market. More housing units available would mean less pressure on prices and more choice for buyers or renters.

More selective market: what it means for those

Recommended tools

For an updated estimate, use the net salary calculator and the CHF-EUR exchange comparator.

Key points

How to Navigate the New Real Estate Scenario

Anyone evaluating the purchase of a property in Switzerland must take into account the new context: a more selective and less frantic market compared to previous years. This offers both opportunities and requires strategic awareness.

A first step involves reviewing your purchase budget and financing structure. With low interest rates that still maintain their advantage in reducing mortgage costs, the market nevertheless requires more rigorous assessments of actual payment capacity. Many buyers who had factored in rapid price increases to recover their investment over time will need to reconsider their projections. The market no longer supports automatic and rapid appreciation as it did in the past.

A second step is a conscious search for location. Rather than looking for any available property, buyers should focus on areas with strong fundamentals: accessibility to public transportation, proximity to economic centers, quality of local community, educational and healthcare services. These characteristics will remain competitive over time.

A third step concerns due diligence on construction quality. Energy efficiency, thermal insulation, structural durability: in a less speculative market, these factors carry more weight in potential buyers' assessments. If a property is not in good technical condition, it will require costly interventions that will reduce its attractiveness.

Tools and Support for Real Estate Decisions

Those who wish to explore their financing options can use specific mortgage calculators that simulate different rate and loan term scenarios. It is also important to verify your personal situation through a cost of living analysis tool, which provides an overview of housing expenses in the chosen canton.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the decline in the Reri INDEX?: MoneyPark's RERI index fell to 3.5 points in Q2 2026, the first time in three years. This drop signals that the risk of a housing bubble is decreasing. The index is now in a medium risk zone (grade 2 out of 5), which implies that the Swiss real estate market, while remaining solid, is less exposed to violent price corrections. The decline is mainly due to a less marked increase in real estate prices, although the demand for owned homes remains supported by low interest rates.
Why are prices growing less, but demand remains high?: The low interest rates of the Swiss National Bank continue to make the purchase of real estate attractive, because they lower the cost of mortgages. However, after years of rapid revaluations, the market is entering a phase of equilibrium: supply is improving thanks to increased construction activity in some regions, and demand, although stable, is no longer able to generate upward pressures as in the past. This means that prices will grow more slowly than in recent years.
What factors could change this trend in the coming quarters?: According to MoneyPark experts, two variables are crucial: the level of immigration and regional construction activity. If immigration falls, demand for housing could decline, putting downward pressure on prices. On the contrary, if construction increases and creates a greater supply of real estate, the market remains balanced. The Reri INDEX is expected to remain at current levels or fall slightly, as long as the economic climate remains stable and rates remain low.
What are the key factors now for those who want to buy a home?: In a more selective market, the location of the property, its construction quality and the structure of the financing become even more important. Buyers will have to rigorously evaluate the sustainability of their investment, verifying the accessibility of services, the quality of the energy and the structure, and the proximity to economic centers. Not all properties will appreciate at the same rate; those in strong, quality positions will remain competitive in the medium term.