Production and import prices rise in September

Context

TL;DR

• In September, the index rises by 0,3% compared with August
• The annual decline remains at 0,2%
• Imports: +0,9% in the month and +2,1% year-on-year
• September inflation at 1,0%, compared with 0,8% in August

Key facts

• Period → September, monthly comparison with August
• Total index → +0.3% monthly; annual decline of 0.2%
• Producer prices → +0.1% monthly; annual contraction of 2.1%
• Import prices → +0.9% monthly; +2.1% per year
• Inflation → 1.0% in September; 0.8% in August; 0.4% in July
• Forecast 2026 → between 0.6% and 0.9%
• Forecast 2027 → between 0.6% and 1.1%
• Diffusion → UST, with Keystone-ATS indication

In September, producer and import prices in Switzerland rose by 0.3% compared to August. The change was interpreted as a sign of greater pressure on business costs, fueled by the rise in prices of oil and other energy carriers following the wars.

The information was released this morning by the FSO, with the indication Keystone-ATS. On an annual basis, the index still recorded a decline of 0.2%, the 41st consecutive decline. The data thus compares a positive monthly movement with a still negative trend.

The detail of the sub-indexes

The sub-index of producer prices, referring to indigenous products, marked a monthly increase of 0.1% and an annual contraction of 2.1%. Compared to August, oil products were the most expensive. The source distinguishes the variation of goods produced in Switzerland from that of imported goods.

The import price sub-index instead shows a progression on both horizons: +0.9% in the month and +2.1% on the year. In the monthly comparison, the increase mainly concerned petroleum products, crude oil and natural gas. The statement also mentions computers, vehicles and related spare parts among the goods that have become more expensive.

The FSO defines the producer and import price index as a cyclical indicator of supply and demand on the goods markets. The September photograph therefore combines the summary of the general index with the separate reading of the two sub-indexes.

The same update recalls that inflation stood at 1.0% in September, equal to 1% in non-decimal form, after 0.8% in August and 0.4% in July. The figure belongs to the different scope of consumer prices, but is reported together with the trend in company prices.

For the record of the data, the result is therefore not a single indistinct increase: the push of the month is more marked on imports, while the production component maintains a negative annual balance. It is the distinction used by the FSO to describe the situation.

Operational details

From statistics to consumer prices

For those who follow the cost of living, the index should be read as an upstream signal and not as the immediate measure of every expense. The FSO explains that production costs are normally passed on to final products; for this reason, the figure provides a useful reference for assessing the trend in consumer prices, that is, inflation. The transmission, however, is not linear: the index's fluctuations are significantly more pronounced, and it is more volatile because of its dependence on raw materials.

The comparison that households and businesses need

A practical way to read it is to separate three questions: how much the total moved during the month, what direction domestic production took, and what pressure comes from imported goods. The source's figures can be set out as follows:

The picture shows why the import figure deserves attention when oil and other energy carriers become more expensive: during the month, its change is positive both compared with production and with the total. This does not mean that every consumer price changes at the same time or to the same extent; the source warns that the business-goods index is more volatile.

The comparison with inflation reinforces the need not to confuse the indicators. In September, the consumer-price figure reached 1,0%, that is, 1%, after 0,8% in August and 0,4% in July. The source points to geopolitical developments to understand what follows, while the strong franc acts as a brake on imported price increases.

Scenarios indicated by estimates

The cited forecasts do not offer a single figure. The economic actors listed by the source, including SECO, OECD, KOF, Economiesuisse, UBS and the International Monetary Fund, place the average increase between 0,6% and 0,9% in 2026 and between 0,6% and 1,1% in 2027. These are ranges, not results already observed.

Historical comparison helps measure the scale of the scenarios: average annual inflation was 1,1% in 2024 and 2,8% in 2022, the highest in 30 years. The last negative figure cited dates back to 2020, with a decline of 0,7%, shown as -0,7%. The sequence shows that the figure can move from a phase of rising prices to one of decline, while dependence on raw materials keeps volatility high.

Key points

How to turn data into an operational reading

A prudent procedure can start with the UST update and always use the same sheet. The goal is to distinguish what the release measures from what it may indicate about the cost of living. There are four steps.

Four steps

1. Set the comparison period. Note the month observed and the reference month: for the data considered, September should be read in relation to August. Separate the monthly movement from the year-on-year change, so the two time horizons remain distinct.

2. Separate the two subindices. Record producer prices and import prices in different columns. In the first case, look at domestic products; in the second, the imported categories indicated in the release, from energy to computers, through to motor vehicles and spare parts.

3. Add consumer prices alongside them. Place the inflation figure and the two previous months available in the source next to the business index: 1,0% in September, 0,8% in August and 0,4% in July. The comparison prevents the producer and import price index from being used as an automatic substitute for inflation.

4. Read the estimates as ranges. For 2026, the indicated range is between 0,6% and 0,9%; for 2027, between 0,6% and 1,1%. Note separately the possible effect of the strong franc and geopolitical developments, identified by the source among the factors to monitor.

To make monitoring repeatable, the sheet can contain five fixed rows: overall index, production, imports, inflation and the factors cited to explain the movement. With each new UST update, only the period is changed and the previous comparison is retained. The years 2026 and 2027 should be kept in the forecasts column, not in the column for results already verified.

This grid connects national data to everyday decisions about the cost of living without attributing a certain effect to a single change. For a tool dedicated to monitoring, see costo della vita in Svizzera.

Source: swissinfo.ch