October inflation rises to 1,5%, driven by energy

Context

TL;DR

• Annual inflation in October rose by 1,5%
• In September, the annual increase was 1%
• The monthly CPI grew by 0,2%
• Energy: heating oil, gasoline and diesel drove prices

Key facts

• Period → October
• Annual inflation → 1,5% (September: 1%)
• Monthly CPI → 0,2%
• Economists' forecasts → between 1,1% and 1,4%
• Main drivers → heating oil, petrol and diesel
• Petroleum products → 2,1% of the basket; almost 85% of the monthly increase
• Heating oil → +81,4% year on year
• Imported products → +1,2% compared with September; +3,7% compared with October 2025

The October figure

In October, inflation in Switzerland accelerated. According to the Federal Statistical Office (UST/BFS), the year-on-year change rose to 1,5%, while in September it was +1%. The consumer price index, or CPI, recorded an increase of 0,2% compared with the previous month. The two percentages therefore describe two different comparisons reported for the same month: the first year on year, the second with the previous month. The source explicitly presents the two results, distinguishing the annual change from the monthly one.

Economists' estimates for October inflation were between 1,1% and 1,4%; the actual figure, at 1,5%, exceeded the upper end of the range.

The movement in prices was mainly linked to increases in heating oil, petrol and diesel. For the cost of living, the figure provides an initial picture of the CPI, but the source points out that the weight in the basket and the contribution to the increase do not coincide. Petroleum products account for 2,1% of the consumption basket and explain almost 85% of the monthly increase in the index.

The figures should be read as changes in the index, not as an identical increase in every good: the same source in fact reports more moderate rises and declines in some categories, as well as different dynamics between imported and domestic products. The available snapshot is that of the October CPI, not an estimate of the price of every individual purchase.

Operational details

The weight of energy items

The relationship between the weight of petroleum products in the basket and their contribution to the monthly increase clarifies the structure of the October figure. The share indicated in the source is 2,1% of the consumer basket, while the contribution attributed to the rise in the index is almost 85%.

Arthur Jurus, of financial group ODDO BHF, notes: “Petroleum products, which account for only 2,1% of the consumer basket, alone explain almost 85% of the monthly increase in the index”.

The comparison must be made over the correct periods: 2,1% describes the weight of the products in the basket, while 85% concerns the monthly increase in the index. The reported relationship does not say that every item followed the same trend; rather, it shows how concentrated the monthly movement was in these products.

Heating oil therefore increased by 81,4% year on year. For gasoline, annual growth was 26,5%, while for diesel it reached 36,9%. These are the three values reported by the source for the main energy items, without turning them into a forecast of how prices will evolve.

The economist emphasizes that this winter households that heat with heating oil, as well as those that depend on a car daily, could find themselves facing a particularly costly energy bill. This is a possibility, not a cost already quantified for each household.

According to Jurus, price acceleration is linked above all to energy, not to an overheating of the Swiss economy. Consequently, the country is not experiencing generalized inflation, but rather a concentrated energy shock, with very unequal effects among households. The same national figure can therefore affect citizens’ wallets differently.

Key points

Increases and decreases in the other categories

The monthly movement in the CPI also includes non-energy items. The source reports that women's footwear prices increased by 10,5% and men's footwear prices by 8,6%. In the same comparison, outpatient medical services at hospitals recorded an increase of 1,1%. The source describes these increases as more moderate than those in the items that drove the index.

By contrast, prices for medical services at doctors' offices (−3%), international package tours (−2,5%) and the hotel sector (−2,9%) decreased. The sign of the change is essential: these three figures describe month-on-month declines, not increases.

The year-on-year comparison also shows changes in different sectors. Car rental and car sharing recorded an increase of 11,5%, while personal computers rose by 11%. The source does not present these items as the main explanation for the surge; instead, it indicates that heating oil, petrol and diesel in particular drove prices higher.

The picture varies depending on the origin of the products: imported products increased by 1,2% compared with September and by 3,7% compared with October 2025, while domestic products recorded changes of −0,1% month on month and −0,8% year on year. For imported products, the monthly comparison is therefore with September, and the annual comparison with October 2025.

The text adds that the strong franc helps to cushion the shock, while rising prices are mainly those of products from abroad. No breakdown by cantons or individual households is provided: the available figure therefore remains that of the Swiss CPI and does not make it possible to measure the spending of each household. For more details, see cost of living in Switzerland.

Source: rsi.ch