Labor market outlook: slight weakening in the fourth quarter of 2026

Context

TL;DR

• KOF indicator at 2,0 points in the fourth quarter of 2026
• It stood at 2,3 points in the previous quarter
• Approximately 4'500 companies surveyed in October
• Construction positive; food service and retail declining

Key facts

• KOF indicator → 2,0 points
• Period → fourth quarter of 2026
• Previous period → 2,3 points
• Multi-year average → 1,7 points
• Companies surveyed → approximately 4'500
• Current staff → 0,8 points
• Next three months → 3,2 points
• Other services → 4,4 points

The national figure

The score of 2,0 points recorded for the fourth quarter of 2026 signals a slight weakening in employment prospects in Switzerland. However, the number of companies expecting to increase jobs remains higher than the number of companies anticipating a reduction.

The quarterly employment survey conducted by the KOF Institute of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH) showed a decline compared with the 2,3 points recorded in the previous quarter, according to a statement published today. In October, approximately 4'500 companies were surveyed.

The overall result remains above the multi-year average of 1,7 points. According to KOF, this level points to solid employment growth in the coming months. The national picture therefore remains positive, although the comparison with the previous quarter shows a limited deterioration.

The indicator combines two assessments by companies. The first concerns current staff: companies indicate whether they employ too many or too few employees. The second concerns the following three months and measures the intention to hire or reduce staff.

The result is mainly affected by the less favourable assessment of current staff, whose specific indicator fell from 1,3 to 0,8 points. Companies that consider staffing insufficient nevertheless remain more numerous than those that consider it excessive. Expectations for the following three months remained almost stable: the indicator fell from 3,3 to 3,2 points.

Operational details

How the change is distributed

The comparison between the components

The KOF indicator is not based on a single question. It combines the assessment of the current workforce with companies' intentions for the following three months. This structure makes it possible to distinguish the assessment of staff already employed from short-term expectations.

The differences are calculated by subtracting the current value from the previous one: the overall indicator falls by 0,3 points, the current-workforce component by 0,5 and the future-intentions component by only 0,1. The comparison shows why KOF refers to a slight deterioration: the largest change concerns the current situation of companies, while plans for the short term change little.

Even after the decline, both components remain positive: 0,8 points for the workforce assessment and 3,2 points for expectations. The overall figure of 2,0 points is also 0,3 points above the multi-year average of 1,7. According to KOF, this gap remains compatible with a solid employment trend in the following months.

The survey therefore does not describe a single signal. On the one hand, companies are less positive when assessing the current number of employees. On the other hand, the component focused on the following three months remains almost stable. The source also specifies that companies whose workforce is considered insufficient are still more numerous than those that consider it excessive. The picture that emerges is therefore less favorable than in the previous quarter, but still positive overall.

Key points

Sectors with opposing signals

From construction to services

The trend varies from one sector to another. In construction, companies expecting more jobs clearly outnumber the others; in the hotel and restaurant sector, as in retail, those anticipating a reduction prevail.

The so-called “other services” continue to represent an important pillar of Swiss employment. Their indicator stands at 4,4 points, therefore still clearly positive, but the picture has deteriorated: at the end of 2025 it reached 9,6 points and now stands at levels last observed at the beginning of 2021.

Wholesale and manufacturing, on the other hand, show signs of recovery compared with the end of 2025, when their indicators were still clearly below zero. Today, the former stands at -1,0 points and the latter at -3,4 points. Employment prospects therefore remain negative in both sectors, despite the improvement.

The combination of the data describes a labour market that is not uniform across sectors: construction and other services show positive signals, hotels, restaurants and retail show a prevalence of expectations of reduction, while wholesale and manufacturing are improving but remain below zero.

The source does not indicate the reasons for the sectoral differences and does not provide a breakdown by individual companies, geographical areas or Cantons. Nor does it quantify wages, unemployment or jobs actually created or lost. The available data concern companies’ assessments and expectations, not an already measured development in employment.

Source: swissinfo.ch