SNB leaves rate at 0%, GDP 2026 at 1.5-2% (cross-border guide)

Context

In brief

• The SNB confirms the reference rate at 0%
• Inflation remains between 0% and 2%
• 2026 GDP revised to between 1,5% and 2,0%
• 2026 inflation at 0,7%, 2027 at 0,8%

Key facts

• Decision → maintaining the reference rate
• Level → 0%
• 2026 GDP growth → between 1,5% and 2,0%
• 2027 GDP growth → more or less 1,5%
• 2026 inflation → 0,7%
• 2027 inflation → 0,8%
• Objective → inflation between 0% and 2%
• Uncertainties → trade policy and exchange rates

On Thursday 24 September 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to keep the reference rate at 0%, the level at which it has stood since June 2025. The choice is linked to the fact that inflation in the Confederation remains under control.

The central bank nevertheless left the door open to intervention in the foreign exchange market, if necessary, to ensure appropriate monetary conditions.

“If necessary, the National Bank is (...) prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions,” it added in a statement.

The Swiss decision differs from that of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), which recently increased their reference rates. The Swiss issuing institution therefore chose the monetary status quo.

Prices, oil and stability

Price dynamics have not remained completely still. The source reports a slight acceleration in inflation, due to the surge in oil prices. Despite this movement, the SNB considers its monetary policy appropriate for keeping inflation within the price stability range and supporting economic activity.

The stated objective is to keep inflation between 0% and 2%. However, the central bank warned that the context surrounding trade policy and exchange-rate developments remain factors of uncertainty.

The same day brought a significant revision of the growth forecasts for gross domestic product. For 2026, the SNB now indicates a range between 1,5% and 2,0%, compared with approximately 1% estimated in mid-June during the previous quarterly analysis of the country’s economic and monetary situation. For 2027, the growth of the Swiss economy is expected to stand at more or less 1,5%.

Inflation projections were also revised upwards by around ten basis points: 0,7% for the current year and 0,8% for the following year. The SNB attributes the update to the increase in petroleum product prices, which was stronger than expected. Inflation is expected to stabilize at this level in 2028; the estimates remain conditional on maintaining a reference rate of zero throughout the period under consideration.

Operational details

For those who live or work in Switzerland, the practical value of the decision lies in the combination of continuity and caution. The SNB did not announce a new rate level: it confirmed the one already in force. At the same time, it signaled that oil, trade policy, and exchange rates may alter the observed framework in upcoming updates.

The source thus provides a basis for reading the cost of living in Switzerland, but not a personalized calculation for every household or business. It does not indicate individual amounts, a precise exchange rate trend, or a variation for a single budget item. The most prudent reading consists in distinguishing the data communicated by the central bank from the consequences that each person will have to assess on their own budget.

Three signals to monitor

The comparison with the Fed and ECB adds a second level of reading. The main central banks cited in the source are not following the same line: the Fed and the ECB have raised rates, while the SNB has maintained the status quo. For those who operate with income or expenses in different currencies, this divergence makes it even more useful to observe the exchange rate without attributing a predetermined outcome to it. The CHF/EUR comparator can serve to track the ratio, but does not replace the caution required by the SNB itself.

Even the revision of growth must be interpreted with measure. The shift from a lower forecast to a higher one improves the macroeconomic framework described by the institute, but does not equate to a guarantee on the performance of every activity, income, or expense. The decision thus delivers a stable national reference and, at the same time, a clear list of variables to monitor. To follow the impact on the cost of living in Switzerland, it is advisable to update one's scenario when oil prices, exchange rates, or trade conditions change.

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Source: rsi.ch