KOF: Swiss GDP 2026 at +1,7%, inflation at 0,6% (cross-border guide)

Context

In brief

• 2026 GDP: +1.7%, compared to +0.9% in June
• 2027 GDP: +1.7%, up from the previous +1.5%
• 2026 Inflation: 0.6%, down from the previous 0.7%
• 2026 Unemployment: 3.1%

Key facts

• Institution → KOF of the Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich)
• Edition → 123rd Consensus Forecast
• Participants → 17 experts
• Interviews → from September 3 to 23
• 2026 GDP → +1.7% net of sports-related effects
• 2027 Inflation → 0.7%
• Unemployment in five years → 2.9%
• SPI in twelve months → 20,633 points

The KOF of the Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich) has detected a clear improvement in Swiss business outlook for the current year. The new survey, conducted among the country’s economists, raises the 2026 gross domestic product growth forecast, net of sports-related effects, to +1.7%. In June, the expectation was +0.9%. 2027 is also viewed more favorably: the estimate rises to +1.7%, from the previously indicated +1.5%.

Prices and labor market

The revision does not only concern growth. Inflation estimates have been revised downward: in 2026, prices are expected to rise by 0.6%, compared to 0.7% in the June survey. For 2027, the forecast is 0.7%, down from the previous 0.8%; in five years, it stands at 0.8%, down from 0.9%. On the labor market, however, prospects remain virtually unchanged. The unemployment rate is seen at 3.1% in 2026, at 3% in the following twelve months, and at 2.9% in five years.

The survey thus compares different time horizons: the current year for GDP and inflation, 2027 for growth and prices, twelve months for certain exchange rates and the stock index, and five years for price and unemployment outlooks.

The euro-swiss franc exchange rate, which has risen in the last two months, is expected to remain substantially stable. The rate is forecast at 0.93 in three months and 0.92 in one year; for the dollar, the indicated average values are 0.81 and 0.80. Those following conversions can compare these two deadlines in the CHF/EUR comparator.

On the stock market, specialists are more cautious than in June. The SPI index is expected at approximately 19,725 points in one quarter, slightly below the current level, and at 20,633 points in twelve months. The estimates are part of the 123rd KOF Consensus Forecast, in which 17 experts participated, interviewed between September 3 and 23. The survey should not be confused with the forecasts of the business cycle center itself nor with its barometer.

Operational details

Practical reading for those who live and work in Switzerland

The comparison with June is the starting point for interpreting the revision. The growth forecast for 2026 rises from +0,9% to +1,7%, while that for 2027 increases from +1,5% to +1,7%. The change describes an improvement in experts’ expectations, not an already recorded result. For this reason, the figure should be read as a reference scenario for the Swiss economy.

Prices, employment and different time horizons

The section on inflation requires a simple distinction. When the estimate falls from 0,7% to 0,6% for 2026, this does not mean that prices are expected to decrease: the source still indicates an increase. Instead, the revision signals a more contained expected increase compared with June. The same interpretation applies to the change from 0,8% to 0,7% in 2027 and from 0,9% to 0,8% in five years. The survey does not break down the figure by individual expenses, so it does not make it possible to derive the trend of a specific item in a personal budget. For those monitoring the cost of living, the costo della vita in Svizzera can be considered alongside the reading, without attributing to it figures that are not in the survey.

The labor market offers a distinct trajectory. The 3,1% forecast for 2026 falls to 3% in the following twelve months and to 2,9% in five years, but the source defines the prospects as virtually unchanged. The figure, therefore, does not describe the outcome for a single profession or a specific area of the country. It only shows the overall direction indicated by experts.

| Indicator | June | New forecast | Horizon | | GDP | +0,9% | +1,7% | 2026 | | GDP | +1,5% | +1,7% | 2027 | | Inflation | 0,7% | 0,6% | 2026 | | Inflation | 0,8% | 0,7% | 2027 | | Inflation | 0,9% | 0,8% | in five years |

The exchange rate and the SPI require yet another reading: they are expected values for specific time horizons, not an indistinct description of the future. Distinguishing between the quarter, twelve months and five years helps avoid putting different indicators on the same footing.

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Key points

How to use the survey

Forecasts can become a personal monitoring sheet if indicators and deadlines are kept separate. The method remains faithful to the source: record the values, compare them with June, and do not transform a collective estimate into an individual data point.

Five-step procedure

1. Set the GDP horizon. Mark 2026 with +1.7% and 2027 with +1.7%; next to it, keep the June references of +0.9% and +1.5% so the comparison remains readable.

2. Create a separate row for prices. For 2026, note 0.6%; for 2027, 0.7%; and for five years, 0.8%. Place the previous values of 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.9% nearby, without confusing them.

3. Treat labor as a separate time series. The sequence indicated by the survey is 3.1% in 2026, 3% in the following twelve months, and 2.9% in five years. Do not merge it with the inflation row: the time horizons only partially coincide.

4. Record exchange rates with their respective deadlines. For the euro against the franc, use 0.93 in three months and 0.92 in one year; for the dollar, keep the average values of 0.81 and 0.80. The CHF/EUR comparator helps keep the exchange rate distinct from price trends.

5. Keep the stock market separate. Write 19,725 points for the SPI in one quarter and 20,633 in twelve months, remembering that the first estimate is slightly below the current level.

Periodic verification

When updating the sheet, always check three elements: the time horizon, the comparison with June, and the nature of the figure, ensuring it is a survey forecast. This is the 123rd KOF Consensus Forecast, conducted with 17 experts surveyed between September 3 and 23. It should not be confused with the forecasts of the business cycle center itself or with its barometer: maintaining this distinction avoids attributing to the source a different data point than the one published.

To transform the general framework into a personal check on income, use the salary calculator.

Source: rsi.ch