AI reform: risk of asset depletion in 2031

Context

TL;DR

• AI risks depleting the assets by 2031
• New benefit for young people aged 18 to 24
• Liquidity and investments: 33% versus the legal 50%
• Consultation deadline: 4 February 2027

Key facts

• Goal → professional integration and disability insurance finances
• New benefit → approximately 1'000 francs per month
• 2025 deficit → more than 200 million francs
• Threshold for a full pension → from 70% to 80%
• 2030 scenario → more than 600 million annual deficit

On Wednesday, the Federal Council put the next reform of disability insurance (DI) out for consultation. The project aims to strengthen professional integration and stabilize the insurance’s finances, with particular attention to new pensions granted to young adults with mental illnesses.

The deadline set for the consultation is 4 February 2027. The reform is not presented as sufficient on its own: the executive considers it necessary to also intervene on payroll contributions in order to permanently put DI on a sound financial footing.

In recent years, the number of people receiving a new DI pension has increased in all age groups. The increase is particularly problematic among 18- to 24-year-olds: many of these people face serious difficulties re-entering professional life or entering the workforce later on. For this reason, according to the Government, they may need a DI pension for a long time. The main reason cited for the increase among young adults is mental illness, a trend also observed in other countries.

A benefit to support young people

The main proposed measure is a new benefit for young people between 18 and 24 who, because of their health conditions, cannot participate in DI professional integration measures but retain integration potential. The Federal Council estimates that this concerns approximately 1'000 people, or about one-third of the new pensions granted in this age group.

The aim is to provide young people with intensive and prolonged counselling and support, helping them better manage difficulties related to their illness and gradually approach the professional integration process. The benefit would include a monthly allowance of approximately 1'000 francs for integration, as well as individual and regular counselling from the DI office, with the involvement of the person’s social environment.

Financially, the situation remains critical. DI has had a structural deficit since the beginning of the 1990s. In 2025, the pay-as-you-go deficit exceeded 200 million francs; in the baseline scenario, the annual deficit could exceed 600 million by 2030. In addition, there is approximately 200 million in annual interest on the debt owed to AVS. Without countermeasures, the executive warns, DI’s assets would be completely depleted in 2031.

Operational details

The relationship between deficits and savings

The figures from the source become easier to read if they are separated by year and by type of amount. The pay-as-you-go deficit measures the imbalance indicated for the insurance scheme; interest, on the other hand, represents the annual cost of the AI's debt to the AVS. The savings cited by the Federal Council are an estimate of the effect of the proposed measures.

The most direct comparison concerns 2030: the estimated savings of 150 million francs are lower than the annual deficit which, in the baseline scenario, could exceed 600 million. This is the relationship indicated by the Government to explain why cuts in expenditure, although rising to approximately 400 million in 2040, would not on their own be sufficient to stabilize the insurance scheme over the long term and guarantee the necessary liquidity.

The gap from the prescribed level

The situation of the AI Compensation Fund also shows a measurable difference. Currently, liquidity and investments amount to 33% of one year's expenditure of the insurance scheme, while the level prescribed by law is 50%. The arithmetic distance between the two values is 17 percentage points. The 33% therefore concerns the fund's financial resources relative to annual expenditure, not the share of new pensions among young people.

The source links this level to the fund's rapid depletion and warns that, without countermeasures, its assets would be exhausted in 2031. This is a time horizon indicated in the scenario described by the Federal Council, not a result that has already occurred.

Two lines for integration

The reform supplements the benefit for young people with measures concerning training and continuing education. Currently, many young people, people with few qualifications or insured persons with low incomes do not meet the requirements for vocational reintegration. The project provides for better support and pathways more geared to the needs of the labor market, aiming to strengthen the prospects for lasting integration into the primary labor market.

The monthly benefit and regular counselling, by contrast, address the situation of those who cannot yet participate in the AI's vocational measures, despite having integration potential. Comparing the two measures shows that the proposal is not limited to modifying pensions: it combines prolonged support for a specific group with broader access to training.

Key points

The measures envisaged and outstanding issues

In February 2026, the Federal Council tasked the Federal Department of Home Affairs with examining every possible measure to avert additional financing for Disability Insurance. The reform submitted for consultation therefore contains both expenditure-side measures and new revenues, some time-limited and others permanent.

The DI offices would be expected to contribute to easing the financial burden through organizational measures. To qualify for a full DI pension, the required degree of disability would rise from 70% to 80%; in addition, the daily allowance for people without maintenance obligations would be reduced, following a model similar to that of unemployment insurance.

Savings and contributions

Overall, the Government estimates that these measures would reduce DI expenditure by 150 million francs in 2030. Thereafter, the savings would increase to approximately 400 million in 2040. The same source warns, however, that these amounts would not be sufficient to stabilize DI over the long term and ensure the necessary liquidity.

For this reason, the Federal Council considers it necessary to act on the revenue side as well. The government note indicates that, to put the insurance on a sustainable financial footing, payroll contributions would need to be increased by 0,2 percentage points. For the period from 2030 to 2039, it also proposes increasing the DI contribution rate by 0,05 percentage points. At the same time, the income compensation contribution rate would fall by the same amount.

The two figures serve different purposes in the text: 0,2% is presented as the increase needed for long-term financial stabilization, while 0,05% concerns a proposal limited to the period 2030-2039, offset by the reduction in the income compensation rate. The available passage ends after the reference to the OASI rates and does not provide enough information to describe other components of the financing.

Training and wording of the law

The reform also affects the wording of the Federal Disability Insurance Act, referred to by the acronym LAI. The Federal Council proposes replacing individual terms that the people directly affected consider demeaning and outdated. The examples cited include German-language formulations containing the term «Invalide» to refer to certain people.

This part complements the measures on vocational integration: on the one hand, extended counselling for young people with integration potential; on the other, better access to training and continuing education. The source presents both measures as elements of the reform submitted for consultation, alongside the financial measures.

For the official reference on OASI and income compensation contributions, see the OASI 2026 synoptic table. To learn more about pensions, consult rendite AVS/AI.

Source: rsi.ch