Swiss consumer confidence: decline in September

Context

TL;DR

• In September, confidence falls to -35,8 points.
• The figure decreases by 3,0 points compared with August.
• Job security moves to -60,6.
• The past prices sub-index rises to 129,3.

Key facts

• Period → September
• General indicator → -35,8 points
• Change compared with August → -3,0 points
• 2023-2026 average → -37,3
• Expected economic development → from -36,4 to -42,5
• Job security → from -54,3 to -60,6
• Prices expected over the next twelve months → from 113,3 to 115,6
• Sample → larger in Ticino

The September figure

In September, the general indicator of Swiss consumer confidence reached -35,8 points. Compiled on the basis of a survey by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the figure records a decrease of 3,0 points compared with August's value of -32,8 points, the first since last March.

Year on year, the index records a contraction of 0,7 points, but remains slightly above the 2023-2026 average, at -37,3. The monthly decline therefore does not erase the comparison with that average benchmark.

The signals accompanying the average

The sub-index relating to expectations for the country's economic development fell from -36,4 to -42,5, placing it well below the multi-year average of -34,3. Personal financial situation also deteriorated: the reference to recent months fell from -38,8 to -42,3, while the one for the coming months moved from -29,6 to -31,0.

The time for major purchases is considered less favourable, with the corresponding value moving from -26,3 to -27,3. The sharpest change concerns job security, which fell from -54,3 to -60,6. This figure remains much lower than the average of the last three years, at -34,7.

The survey thus shows a monthly deterioration in expected economic conditions, personal finances, purchases and job security. Price indicators, on the other hand, remain positive and at high levels.

The indicator for past price developments rose from 122,5 to 129,3; the one for expectations over the next twelve months from 113,3 to 115,6. For the next five years, the figure instead fell from 109,2 to 105,8, while remaining very high.

Operational details

How to read the deterioration

The overall value is a summary. To understand which areas are changing in consumers' perception, it is necessary to separate the personal financial situation, propensity for major purchases, employment and prices.

The comparison between the two financial horizons shows that the assessment of recent months remains lower than that of the coming months, but both decline compared with August. It is therefore not only an assessment of the past: expectations for the following months also become more cautious. The same applies to major purchases, whose sub-index falls in the monthly comparison.

Prices and time horizons

The section on prices requires a separate reading. The indicator on past developments rises from 122,5 to 129,3, while the one on expectations for the next twelve months rises from 113,3 to 115,6. The value referring to the next five years instead moves in the opposite direction, from 109,2 to 105,8, while remaining at very high levels.

The source specifies that the price scale produces positive balances when the majority of consumers perceive a price increase. The values should therefore be read as a measure of the perception captured by the survey, without isolating a single time horizon. To complement the price picture with a practical reading of costo della vita in Svizzera, it is advisable to keep the past figure, the expectation for twelve months and that for five years separate.

This distinction also helps explain why a single index does not exhaust the result of the survey: the assessment of personal finances, that of purchases and price expectations can move with different intensity in the same month.

Recommended tools

For an updated estimate, use the net salary calculator and the CHF-EUR exchange comparator.

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Key points

How to use the data month after month

The survey now has a monthly frequency. To follow it in an orderly manner, readers can apply the same procedure each time and compare the new values with those from the previous month and with the averages indicated in the survey.

The reading procedure

1. Identify the reference month and note the general confidence climate index. The survey has been conducted since 1972: in the past it was quarterly, whereas more recently it has been monthly.

2. Distinguish the four subindices of the general indicator: the economic prospects for the coming months, the financial situation over the past months, expectations regarding the financial situation in the coming months, and whether the current moment is favorable for major purchases.

3. Consider the response scale for the fourteen questions. The options range from «much better» (+2 points) to «much worse» (-2), passing through «better» (+1), «no change» (0), and «worse» (-1).

4. Remember how each subindex is created: for each question, the simple arithmetic mean of the responses is calculated and then multiplied by 100. The general index is the mean of the four subindices indicated in the previous point.

5. Read the other signals separately, including job security and prices, without confusing them with the four values used to calculate the general indicator. The sample is deliberately larger in Ticino to ensure fair regional representation.

This sequence makes it possible to follow the direction of the data without turning a single value into an independent conclusion. The monthly comparison shows the most recent movement; the multi-year averages, on the other hand, serve to place it in relation to the benchmarks reported by the source.

To complement the general observation with your own situation, also consult the guide to busta paga svizzera. To estimate the effect on personal income, use calcolatore stipendio.

Source: swissinfo.ch