Lindt revises downwards its sales forecasts for 2026

Context

In brief

• Lindt expects turnover growth of between 0% and 2%
• The previous estimate was 4-6%
• The BP fell 8% in the morning
• Seasonal orders are below expectations

Key facts

• Expected growth → 0%-2% of turnover
• Previous estimate → 4-6%
• Morning BP decline → 8%
• Performance since the beginning of January → -30%
• Performance over twelve months → -35%
• Performance over five years → -24%
• Headquarters → Kilchberg (ZH)
• Workforce → 15'500 employees

The revision of estimates

For the second time this year, Lindt & Sprüngli has revised its sales forecasts downward. The group now expects turnover growth of between 0% and 2%, compared with the 4-6% previously forecast. The revision comes after price increases initially caused by the surge in cocoa costs: consumer reaction was stronger than expected.

Keystone-ATS reports that price sensitivity and moderate consumer confidence have reduced order volumes, especially in the seasonal segment. The statement cites Germany, Switzerland and Austria.

«Rather moderate consumer confidence and greater price sensitivity have resulted in order volumes below expectations, especially in the seasonal sector, particularly in Germany, Switzerland and Austria,» the statement reads.

Lindt also points to the wave of extreme heat that affected Europe during the summer: according to the company, it had a negative impact on revenues across the entire sector. Growth is instead described as solid in North America and Asia.

CEO Adalbert Lechner maintains that the decline in the price of cocoa from historic highs should gradually bring cost pressures back to normal. The company expects a recovery in demand and identifies 2027 as the year in which positive volume growth will be achieved, supported by pricing strategy, investments in brands, innovation and cost discipline.

On the stock market, the participation certificate, the BP, fell as much as 8% in the morning, while the market was generally oriented toward a fractional rise. The BP entitles holders to a dividend but not to voting rights and is the reference security for analysts. The indicated price is around 7970 francs; the security belongs to the SLI, which comprises the 30 most important stocks.

Performance is negative by 30% since the beginning of January, by 35% over twelve months and by 24% over five years. Lindt, backed by a 180-year tradition, has twelve of its own plants in Europe and the United States and 620 stores. In 2025 it generated turnover of 5,9 billion francs, up 8% thanks to strong price increases.

Operational details

How to read the signal in Switzerland

Prices, volumes and markets

For those living in Switzerland, the most concrete indicator is the relationship between price and quantity sold. Lindt recorded revenue growth in 2025 thanks to strong price increases, but now reports orders below expectations for seasonal products. This alone does not prove that every price increase reduces demand, but it shows that price sensitivity has become an explicit variable in the group's estimates. Those tracking the cost of living in Switzerland can use this case as a company-specific indicator, without turning it into a general measure of prices.

The geography of demand changes the interpretation. Germany, Switzerland and Austria are the markets cited for the slowdown in seasonal orders; North America and Asia, by contrast, show solid growth. Extreme heat in Europe is a second factor identified by the company and concerns the revenues of the entire sector. The signal, therefore, is not uniform: it contains one component linked to prices and another connected to summer conditions.

The point for those watching the stock

For investors, the revision also matters for the credibility of forecasts. Jean-Philippe Bertschy, an analyst at Vontobel, warns that the second cut of the year weakens confidence in Lindt's ability to formulate accurate estimates. According to the comment, that ability had contributed to the stock's high valuation.

The question to follow is the one indicated by the analyst himself: does consumers' reaction to the increases reflect a structural problem of price elasticity or an isolated episode? In the first scenario, pricing power, long considered a strength of Lindt, remains under pressure. In the second, the normalization of cocoa costs and a recovery in demand may support the trajectory announced for 2027. These are interpretations anchored in the statements reported, not a new forecast.

The nature of the BP should also be kept distinct. The instrument recognizes the dividend, but not the vote; this is why it is the reference followed by analysts in the source. Its price movement should therefore be read together with the company's operating indications, not as a direct measure of households' chocolate purchases. To explore the impact of prices on the balance sheet, consult costo della vita in Svizzera.

Useful tools to protect your net income

To reduce FX leakage, compare CHF-EUR exchange options and banks for cross-border workers.

Key points

Procedure for the reader

Five checks before drawing a conclusion

To use the press release as a reading tool, it is not enough to stop at the stock market movement. Follow these five steps, all based on the data provided by the company and the analyst's note.

1. Set the comparison. Put the new range 0%-2% next to the previous 4-6%. The first figure describes the current expectation for revenue growth; the second shows how much the forecast has been reduced.

2. Separate the factors. Keep distinct the spike in cocoa that had driven price increases, consumer sensitivity, seasonal orders and extreme heat in Europe. The source presents them as different elements of the revision.

3. Check the geographical area. Germany, Switzerland and Austria are associated with orders below expectations; North America and Asia with solid growth. This step avoids interpreting the slowdown as uniform across all markets.

4. Read the right security. The BP is entitled to the dividend but not to voting rights and is the reference for analysts. Therefore, compare its change in the morning with the periods since the beginning of January, twelve months and five years, without confusing the share price with sales volume.

5. Keep the two horizons separate. On the one hand, there is the CEO's expectation of positive volume growth in 2027; on the other, Vontobel's question about price elasticity, whether structural or isolated. Those looking at the scale of employment can pair the data on 15'500 employees and 620 stores with the search for aziende che assumono.

The result is a concrete reading guide: forecast, causes, geographies, financial instrument and time horizon remain separate. To link price movements to your monthly budget, use the calcolatore stipendio

Source: swissinfo.ch