Asylum applications: SEM lowers estimates for 2026 (cross-border guide)

Context

In a nutshell

• First semester 2026: <10,000 asylum applications (first time since 2022)
• SEM expects 22,000 applications for the entire year (vs. 26,000 initial)
• Decline due to fewer Mediterranean and Balkan route crossings
• Statute S (Ukrainians): 12,000 requests expected by the end of the year

Key facts

• What: Asylum applications in Switzerland, revision of annual estimates
• When: First semester 2026; forecasts for the end of 2026
• Where: Switzerland (federal), Mediterranean and Balkan routes (foreign)
• Who: State Secretariat for Migration (SEM)
• 1H 2026 requests: Less than 10,000 (official SEM data)
• 2026 estimates: 22,000 (vs. 26,000 initial)
• Nationality declining: Afghans, Turks, Eritreans

In the first half of 2026, for the first time since 2022, Switzerland registered fewer than 10,000 asylum applications. This is reported by the State Secretariat for Migration (SEM), the federal body responsible for migration policy.

The data suggests a trend reversal: in the previous four years (2022-2025), the number of applications had remained stable or growing. Now the decline is marked.

The SEM has simultaneously revised downwards the projections for the whole of 2026: the Confederation expects 22 thousand requests by the end of the year, against the 26 thousand estimated in the initial plan. This is a reduction of about 4,000 applications, almost 15% less than the previous forecast.

What has changed in the migration to Switzerland

The most striking decline has affected the

Operational details

Practical implications for Swiss cantons and municipalities

The decline in asylum applications has concrete repercussions at the local level. Although the responsibility for migration and asylum lies with the federal government (and specifically the SEM), the operational management — housing, assistance, integration, medical care — falls on the cantons and municipalities.

Fewer requests mean:

• Reduced pressure on local social and housing services: municipalities and cantons will need fewer temporary reception facilities. Some reception centres may be downsized or converted.
• Less impact on cantonal funds: integration charges (language courses, starting work, legal assistance) for asylum seekers are borne or co-financed by the cantons. Fewer people to accommodate means fewer expenses.
• Regional variability: the decline is not uniform. Cantons such as Geneva, Zurich and Bern, which have historically hired more asylum seekers, will experience more marked differences than cantons with smaller flows.

By contrast, some industries and manufacturing sectors rely on foreign labor to make up for skill shortages. A structural decline in migrants could, in the long term, create further pressures on wages and availability of workers in certain sectors (agriculture, construction, health, services). However, the source does not provide data on the sectors specifically concerned.

Comparison with forecasts

Recommended tools

For an updated estimate, use the net salary calculator and the CHF-EUR exchange comparator.

Key points

How the SEM Handles Asylum Applications: Procedures and Timelines

Those arriving in Switzerland who wish to request international protection must file an asylum application. The procedure follows well-defined steps:

1. Initial Registration: The applicant presents to the authorities (often at the border or at a SEM office) and is registered in the system. 2. Assignment to a Canton: The SEM distributes applicants among the cantons according to quotas established by law. 3. Reception and Interview: The competent canton provides temporary accommodation and the SEM conducts a thorough interview with the applicant to assess the validity of the application. 4. Decision: The SEM issues an asylum decree (approval), rejected asylum, or assisted repatriation. Average decision times range from a few months to over a year, depending on the complexity of the case and the SEM's workload. 5. Appeal: Those who receive a rejection may file an administrative appeal within specified timeframes (timelines vary by canton).

The decline in applications facilitates this procedure: fewer applications in the queue mean potentially faster processing times, reducing the period of uncertainty for the applicant and easing the administrative burden on the SEM.

Official Resources and Contacts

For information on the asylum procedure, applicants and employers wishing to hire people with a migration background can consult the SEM's official website (admin.ch), which offers FAQs, forms, and procedural guides in multiple languages.

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