What are the five scenarios outlined by the WSL study?

The five scenarios include a highly technologized society with renewable energies, a future characterized by state and economic collapse, a strongly divided society where an elite opposes an impoverished majority, a country that continues to rely on fossil fuels, and a society that prioritizes cohesion and well-being over economic success.

How can Ticino cross-border workers prepare for the future?

Cross-border workers can prepare by planning their finances, updating their skills, participating in community life, monitoring policies, and using available tools and resources. Using the [salary calculator](nav:calculator) can be a first step towards effective financial planning.

What are the implications for cross-border workers in each scenario?

In a technologically advanced scenario, there could be new job opportunities. In an economic collapse scenario, they might face difficulties maintaining their standard of living. In a divided society, they might face social tensions. In a scenario relying on fossil fuels, they might face increased living costs. In a scenario prioritizing social cohesion, they might enjoy better living and working conditions.

Switzerland 2100: 5 scenarios for cross-border workers (cross-border guide)

Di Redazione Frontaliere Ticino · Published on 7 May 2026

Lake Lugano with a futuristic skyline in the distance

A study outlines five possible scenarios for Switzerland in 2100, with implications for Ticino cross-border workers.

Context

In brief

Five scenarios for Switzerland in 2100
Implications for Ticino cross-border workers
Possible social and economic changes

Key facts

What: Five future scenarios for Switzerland
When: Study published on May 5, 2026
Where: Switzerland
Who: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL)
Amount: Not specified

A recent study by the WSL has outlined five possible scenarios for the future of Switzerland in 2100. These scenarios explore different trajectories of social and economic development, with significant implications for cross-border workers in Ticino. The scenarios range from a highly technologized society with renewable energies, to a future characterized by state and economic collapse, to a deeply divided society where an elite opposes an impoverished majority.

Implications for cross-border workers

For Ticino cross-border workers, these scenarios could mean significant changes in how they live and work. For example, in an economic collapse scenario, they might face difficulties in maintaining their current standard of living. In another scenario, a technologically advanced society could offer new job opportunities and improvements in quality of life.

Specific scenarios for Switzerland

Two of the scenarios were developed specifically for Switzerland. One describes a country that continues to rely on fossil fuels and only confronts the costs of a heavily damaged environment towards the end of the century. The other scenario outlines a society that prioritizes cohesion and well-being over economic success.

No probability

The WSL geographer Lena Gubler emphasizes that none of the scenarios is more likely than another. The goal is to explore possible future variants, not to comment on the probability that they, or some of their aspects, will materialize.

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Operational details

Practical Analysis

The scenarios outlined by the WSL provide a detailed vision of how Switzerland might evolve over the next century. For cross-border workers in Ticino, it is important to understand these possible trajectories to plan for their future.

Scenario 1: Technologically Advanced Society

In this scenario, Switzerland becomes a highly technologized society with renewable energies. This could mean new job opportunities for cross-border workers, especially in high-tech sectors. However, it could also lead to increased competition for qualified positions.

Scenario 2: State and Economic Collapse

In this scenario, Switzerland faces a state and economic collapse. For cross-border workers, this could mean difficulties in maintaining their current standard of living. They might face challenges in finding work and securing essential services.

Scenario 3: Divided Society

In this scenario, Swiss society is deeply divided, with an elite pitted against an impoverished majority. This could create social tensions and difficulties for cross-border workers in finding jobs and securing their rights.

Scenario 4: Reliance on Fossil Fuels

In this scenario, Switzerland continues to rely on fossil fuels and only confronts the costs of a severely damaged environment towards the end of the century. For cross-border workers, this could mean increased living costs and difficulties in ensuring a healthy environment.

Scenario 5: Priority to Social Cohesion

In this scenario, Swiss society prioritizes cohesion and well-being over economic success. This could offer a more stable and secure environment for cross-border workers, with better living and working conditions.

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Key points

Concrete Actions

For Ticino cross-border workers, it is essential to be prepared for any future scenario. Here are some concrete actions they can take to ensure their stability and well-being.

Financial Planning

Regardless of the scenario, it is fundamental to have solid financial planning. This includes saving for the future, investing in health and pension insurance, and diversifying income sources. Using tools like the salary calculator can help better plan finances.

Professional Training and Development

In a rapidly evolving world, it is crucial to stay updated with the latest skills and knowledge. Participating in training courses and professional development can increase job opportunities and improve professional stability. The SUPSI and the USI offer a wide range of courses and training programs.

Community Engagement

Actively participating in community life can help build a support network and improve quality of life. This includes attending local events, joining associations and interest groups, and building relationships with neighbors and the community.

Monitoring Policies and Regulations

It is important to monitor policies and regulations that could affect the lives of cross-border workers. This includes staying updated on new laws and regulations, and participating in public consultations and debates. The DFE and the SECO provide updated information on policies and regulations.

Utilizing Tools and Resources

There are numerous tools and resources available to help cross-border workers plan for their future. These include financial calculators, practical guides, and consulting services. Using these tools can help make informed decisions and ensure a better quality of life.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the five scenarios outlined by the WSL study?: The five scenarios include a highly technologized society with renewable energies, a future characterized by state and economic collapse, a strongly divided society where an elite opposes an impoverished majority, a country that continues to rely on fossil fuels, and a society that prioritizes cohesion and well-being over economic success.
How can Ticino cross-border workers prepare for the future?: Cross-border workers can prepare by planning their finances, updating their skills, participating in community life, monitoring policies, and using available tools and resources. Using the [salary calculator](nav:calculator) can be a first step towards effective financial planning.
What are the implications for cross-border workers in each scenario?: In a technologically advanced scenario, there could be new job opportunities. In an economic collapse scenario, they might face difficulties maintaining their standard of living. In a divided society, they might face social tensions. In a scenario relying on fossil fuels, they might face increased living costs. In a scenario prioritizing social cohesion, they might enjoy better living and working conditions.