What are the effects of a possible exit from Schengen according to the study?

The study carried out by Ecoplan on behalf of the Federal Office of Justice and adopted by the Federal Council shows that the abandonment of the Schengen and Dublin agreements would result in a contraction of Swiss GDP by up to 3.9%, a loss of annual income of up to 1,293 or 1,300 francs per inhabitant, a drop in tourism with losses of between 320 and 810 million francs per year, and a collapse in border workers estimated at up to 60% due to systematic checks and traffic jams.

How many hours would be lost daily due to traffic at the crossings?

According to the Federal Council report published on 18 September 2026, without the Schengen agreement, commuters would lose as many as 422,000 hours a day queuing at border crossings such as Chiasso, Stabio or Ponte Tresa, with annual travel costs estimated at between 1.08 and 2.27 billion francs.

What impact is expected on the real estate market and residence?

Due to controls and endless daily queues at border crossings, it is estimated that up to 170,000 people could decide to move their residence directly to Swiss territory to avoid complex cross-border movements, changing the demand for accommodation and generating price tensions.

Swiss Border Study: Border Costs and Collapse (cross-border guide)

Di Redazione Frontaliere Ticino · Published on 19 September 2026

Car traffic queue at the border between Switzerland and Italy

Federal Council report and Ecoplan study: traffic jams for 422,000 hours a day, billion-dollar costs and the collapse of border workers by up to 60% without Schengen.

Context

In brief

Federal Council report published on September 18, 2026.
Swiss GDP contraction of up to 3.9% in the event of leaving Schengen.
Annual income loss of up to 1,293 / 1,300 francs per inhabitant.
Collapse of cross-border workers estimated at up to 60%.

Key facts

Report date: September 18, 2026
Study conducted by: Ecoplan
Study commissioner: Federal Office of Justice
Expected GDP contraction: Up to 3.9%
Per capita income loss: Up to 1,293 / 1,300 francs per year
Hours lost per day in traffic queues: 422,000 hours
Annual commuting costs: Between 1.08 and 2.27 billion francs

…

Operational details

Without the Schengen Agreement, the border crossings between Switzerland and neighboring countries, including Italy, France, Germany, and Austria, would effectively become external borders of the European Union. This would impose systematic checks on people both entering and exiting, radically altering the daily mobility of workers and citizens. For highly integrated territories such as the Canton of Ticino, Geneva, and Basel, the daily consequences would be immediate and disruptive. The report estimates as many as 422,000 hours lost per day: this is the time commuters would spend stuck in traffic jams at border crossings such as Chiasso, Stabio, or Ponte Tresa on every single working day. In addition to this, travel costs related to delays and traffic would amount to between 1.08 and 2.27 billion Swiss francs per year.

…

Key points

Beyond strictly financial and mobility aspects, the Federal Council's report emphasizes the invaluable importance of police cooperation and the management of migratory flows through the European system. In 2025 alone, thanks to the Schengen Information System, Swiss law enforcement recorded approximately 40,000 relevant hits, promptly identifying criminals and dangerous individuals. Without access to this shared database, Switzerland would not be able to guarantee the same security standards, not even by increasing its domestic investments. On the asylum front, exiting the Dublin system would prevent Switzerland from transferring asylum seekers to the first EU entry country. The obligation to examine all applications on its own territory would prolong stay durations, leading to an estimated cost increase between 166 and 824 million francs.

Why hypothetical savings are not enough

The report clarifies a fundamental misunderstanding regarding the alleged financial benefits of a potential exit: any savings resulting from the cessation of contributions paid to the EU for the management of Schengen and Dublin would by no means cover the costs necessary to reintroduce and manage comprehensive border controls, hire new border personnel, upgrade road and customs infrastructure, as well as create and maintain proprietary security databases. To explore the overall economic impact on your paycheck and deductions resulting from cross-border work, you can consult the tax calculator right away.

Source: comozero.it

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the effects of a possible exit from Schengen according to the study?: The study carried out by Ecoplan on behalf of the Federal Office of Justice and adopted by the Federal Council shows that the abandonment of the Schengen and Dublin agreements would result in a contraction of Swiss GDP by up to 3.9%, a loss of annual income of up to 1,293 or 1,300 francs per inhabitant, a drop in tourism with losses of between 320 and 810 million francs per year, and a collapse in border workers estimated at up to 60% due to systematic checks and traffic jams.
How many hours would be lost daily due to traffic at the crossings?: According to the Federal Council report published on 18 September 2026, without the Schengen agreement, commuters would lose as many as 422,000 hours a day queuing at border crossings such as Chiasso, Stabio or Ponte Tresa, with annual travel costs estimated at between 1.08 and 2.27 billion francs.
What impact is expected on the real estate market and residence?: Due to controls and endless daily queues at border crossings, it is estimated that up to 170,000 people could decide to move their residence directly to Swiss territory to avoid complex cross-border movements, changing the demand for accommodation and generating price tensions.