Is the export of Swiss watches really increasing?

Yes, June and July 2026 marked two consecutive months of increase. However, FH President Yves Bugmann calls for caution, as June has been favoured by two more working days compared to 2025 and a positive base effect. The overall seven-month trend remains mixed, with the US market growing 14.9% compared to July 2024, but China still struggling with -7.1% over seven months.

Which market is currently the most important for Swiss watches?

The United States remains the priority market, with a growth of 14.9% compared to July 2024. France became the second market with a 70% increase in the first seven months of 2026, however according to the FH this reflects its role as a logistics hub and global redistribution platform, rather than an authentic French consumption boom.

How is the Chinese market for Swiss watches and what will change?

The Chinese market is in deep crisis, with declines of 16.5% in June and 18.5% in July, bringing the seven-month balance to -7.1%. The market has shrunk by a third in two years and shows no significant recovery prospects in the near term. However, the modernisation of the free trade agreement between Bern and Beijing, signed recently, will gradually eliminate residual customs duties on watch tariff positions, potentially improving competitiveness in the medium to long term.

Why is Yves Bugmann urging caution despite a two-month increase?

The global context remains uncertain. Although the June and July data are positive, the performance of other crucial markets (China, Germany) and the global economic uncertainty affecting consumer confidence suggest caution. Bugmann points out that it is premature to draw optimistic conclusions by interpreting the monthly results individually.

What is the impact of the China trade agreement for Swiss watches?

The modernised agreement will phase out residual customs duties on most watchmaking tariff positions, reducing export costs to China. Bugmann welcomed the agreement, describing it as' good news for the industry '. However, the concrete effect will be visible in the medium to long term, not immediately.

Swiss watch exports: FH urges caution (cross-border guide)

Di Redazione Frontaliere Ticino · Published on 25 August 2026

Swiss watchmaker workshop with precision components and luxury watch, traditional work bench with detailed movements.

June and July on the rise, but global uncertainty curbs optimism. US stable (+14.9%), China crisis (-7.1%), France anomalous boom (+70%). China Agreement will reduce customs duties.

Context

In a nutshell

Two months of increase in watch exports, but President FH Bugmann warns caution for the rest of the year
USA remains solid: growth 14.9% compared to July 2024; China in deep crisis with -7.1% over 7 months
France anomalous boom (+70%) due to logistics center role, not local consumption
China agreement recently signed: it will gradually eliminate residual duties on watchmaking tariff positions

Key facts

Who: Yves Bugmann, President Federation of the watch industry (FH)
What: Be cautious when interpreting monthly exports; global markets show heterogeneous trends
When: June-July 2026 (aggregated data January-July 2026)
Where: Switzerland; destination markets USA, China, France, United Kingdom, Germany
Amount: -7.4% (7 months USA), +14.9% (USA vs July 2024), -7.1% (China 7 months), -16.5% and -18.5% (June-July China)
Trade agreement: China free trade modernization recently signed Bern-Beijing

Despite two consecutive months of increase in watch exports, the president of the Federation of the Watch Industry (FH) Yves Bugmann calls to remain cautious for the rest of the year due to a still uncertain global context. "It is premature to draw optimistic conclusions," he says in an interview with the ATS agency. June and July 2026 marked encouraging increases, but the FH president reiterates caution. "We remain cautious in the interpretation of the monthly results considered individually," he says.

The

Operational details

Trade agreement and prospects for relaunch

Bugmann nevertheless welcomed the modernisation of the free trade agreement with China, signed last week between Bern and Beijing. "It is good news for our industry," he said, "insofar as the agreement will gradually eliminate the residual customs duties that still exist on most watchmaking tariff positions." This modernisation of the agreement represents a concrete tool to support the Swiss manufacturing sector in the context of the protracted Chinese crisis. When tariffs decrease, export costs to the Chinese market will fall, potentially improving Switzerland's competitiveness compared to other international producers.

France: logistical anomaly or opportunities?

A phenomenon that has attracted attention is the explosion of exports to France, which with a +70% in the first seven months of 2026 has become the second outlet market for Swiss watches. However, according to the FH, the surge is not due to a boom in French consumption, but to the fact that the hexagon is acting as a logistics centre and a platform for global redistribution. "This evolution concerns only the European Union," says Bugmann. "Our first hypothesis was indeed that of a change in logistics flows, but at the moment it cannot be clearly validated". This means that exports to France do not

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Key points

How Global Situation Influences Swiss Economy

The Swiss watchmaking industry employs thousands of workers spread across the Canton of Geneva, the Vallée de Joux, and other specialized districts. It represents a strategic sector of national manufacturing exports and significantly contributes to Switzerland's trade balance. The current situation highlights how the sector remains heavily dependent on a few key markets: the USA offers stability, China represents a short to medium-term challenge, while Europe is going through a period of uncertainty.

For those working in the sector – craftspeople, specialized workers, engineers, merchants and entrepreneurs – the message from the FH is clear: orders from the United States remain reliable and demand from American consumers continues to be sustained by the perceived value of 'Swiss made'. However, pay attention to short-term fluctuations and risks related to trade tariffs, as demonstrated by the base effect of April 2025.

Step-by-step: What to Monitor in the Coming Months

1. USA Market: monitor the CHF/USD exchange rate fluctuations and announcements on American tariff policy. Tariffs marginally affect the profitability of Swiss producers in the short term.

2. China Agreement: track the implementation timeline of the modernization of the free trade agreement. Once tariffs decrease, companies will be able to reposition themselves in the Chinese market.

3. European Diversification: while France serves as a logistics hub (not a true direct consumer outlet), strategy for Germany requires attention. Explore secondary EU markets where data is less negative.

4. Consumer Confidence: monitor European consumer confidence indices published by statistical authorities (UST/BFS). A European recovery would bring benefits to Swiss outlet markets.

…

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the export of Swiss watches really increasing?: Yes, June and July 2026 marked two consecutive months of increase. However, FH President Yves Bugmann calls for caution, as June has been favoured by two more working days compared to 2025 and a positive base effect. The overall seven-month trend remains mixed, with the US market growing 14.9% compared to July 2024, but China still struggling with -7.1% over seven months.
Which market is currently the most important for Swiss watches?: The United States remains the priority market, with a growth of 14.9% compared to July 2024. France became the second market with a 70% increase in the first seven months of 2026, however according to the FH this reflects its role as a logistics hub and global redistribution platform, rather than an authentic French consumption boom.
How is the Chinese market for Swiss watches and what will change?: The Chinese market is in deep crisis, with declines of 16.5% in June and 18.5% in July, bringing the seven-month balance to -7.1%. The market has shrunk by a third in two years and shows no significant recovery prospects in the near term. However, the modernisation of the free trade agreement between Bern and Beijing, signed recently, will gradually eliminate residual customs duties on watch tariff positions, potentially improving competitiveness in the medium to long term.
Why is Yves Bugmann urging caution despite a two-month increase?: The global context remains uncertain. Although the June and July data are positive, the performance of other crucial markets (China, Germany) and the global economic uncertainty affecting consumer confidence suggest caution. Bugmann points out that it is premature to draw optimistic conclusions by interpreting the monthly results individually.
What is the impact of the China trade agreement for Swiss watches?: The modernised agreement will phase out residual customs duties on most watchmaking tariff positions, reducing export costs to China. Bugmann welcomed the agreement, describing it as' good news for the industry '. However, the concrete effect will be visible in the medium to long term, not immediately.