What do the negative 7-month data (-7.4%) mean if June and July are growing?

The overall seven-month trend is negative (-7.4%) because in the previous months (January-May 2026) there were significant declines. Growth in June and July is positive, but still not enough to offset previous losses. The president of the FH invites not to draw hasty conclusions: just two months of growth do not determine a robust trend in a still uncertain context.

Why does China remain the most problematic market despite the new agreement?

The Chinese market has shrunk by a third in two years. June and July 2026 recorded decreases of -16.5% and -18.5% respectively, with a balance of -7.1% over the first seven months. The free trade agreement signed last week will reduce customs duties gradually, not immediately. In addition, Bugmann points out that at the moment there are no prospects of significant recovery in the Chinese market, despite the first months of 2026 giving hope of having reached the lowest point.

France +70%: does it mean that Swiss watches do well in France?

No. The increase of +70% in the first seven months does not correspond to a boom in French final consumption of watches. According to the FH, France functions primarily as a logistics hub and global redistribution platform. This evolution concerns only intra-EU trade, not the demand for French end-use watches. Bugmann admits that the hypothesis of a change in logistics flows cannot yet be clearly validated.

When will the reduction of customs duties with China come into effect?

The modernised free trade agreement was signed last week between Bern and Beijing. It provides for the gradual elimination of residual customs duties on watchmaking tariff positions. The specific implementation times and precise time schedules remain in the definition phase: Bugmann has not communicated concrete dates of entry into force.

Are the US and UK really solid despite the overall decline at 7 months?

Yes. The United States recorded growth of +14.9% compared to the level at the end of July 2026 to the end of July 2024. The overall seven-month decline (-7.4%) is mainly due to the base effect of April 2025 (+150% in anticipation of US customs duties), not the weakness of the US market. The UK also shows solidity: together with the US, they represent the backbone of Western resilience.

Export Watches Rises: Cautious Growth, China Difficult (cross-border guide)

Di Redazione Frontaliere Ticino · Published on 25 August 2026

Swiss watchmaker at workbench assembling luxury watch with precision tools and components

After two months of increase, the president of the FH calls for caution. USA +14.9% vs July 2024; China -16.5% June, -18.5% July. New Bern-Beijing agreement will reduce tariffs gradually.

Context

In a nutshell

Export watches growing June-July 2026, but 7-month trend at -7.4%
Solid US with +14.9% vs July 2024; China in net decline: -16.5% and -18.5%
Bern-Beijing Free Trade Agreement will reduce customs duties on watches
France +70% record, but functions as a European logistics hub

Key facts

What: Export of Swiss watches increases for two consecutive months
When: June and July 2026 (last 7 months: -7.4%)
Where: Western markets (USA, UK, France); Asia (China, Japan)
Who: Federation of the watch industry (FH), President Yves Bugmann
Amount: USA +14.9% vs July 2024; China -16.5% June, -18.5% July; France +70%
Trend: Seven months: -7.4%; April 2025 base effect: +150%
China balance: First seven months 2026: -7.1%

Geneva — Despite two consecutive months of increasing watch exports, the president of the Federation of the Watch Industry (FH) Yves Bugmann calls for caution for the rest of the year, due to a still too uncertain global context. “It's premature to draw optimistic conclusions,” he says in an interview with the AWP agency. “We remain cautious in interpreting the monthly results individually,” he says.

The growth recorded in June is mainly due to the number of working days — two more than in 2025 — and a favourable base effect. In July, the increase was driven mainly by the United States, despite a comparative base

Operational details

Deal with China: a moderate hope

Bugmann welcomed the modernisation of the free trade agreement with China, signed last week between Bern and Beijing. "This is good news for our industry, as the agreement will gradually eliminate the residual customs duties that still exist on most watchmaking tariff positions." The agreement represents a federal intervention aimed at supporting the Swiss watch sector in one of its historically strategic markets.

However, as evidenced by Bugmann's statements, the phasing out of duties means that the positive effect will be timed and not immediate. The text of the agreement and the precise customs reduction schedules remain in the definition phase. This agreement is part of a broader federal trade policy strategy, aimed at protecting and relaunching Switzerland's excellent manufacturing sectors in a context of growing global trade tensions.

France: logistics platform instead of end market

A phenomenon that has attracted attention is the explosion of exports to France, which with an increase of +70% in the first seven months of 2026 has become the second outlet market. However, according to FH, the surge does not reflect a boom in French watch consumption, but rather the fact that France is acting as a logistics hub and redistribution platform

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Key points

Implications for the Swiss economy and employment

Watch exports account for a significant component of Switzerland's GDP and manufacturing employment. When Western markets resist but Asia shrinks, the implications affect employment, wages and regional economic stability. Switzerland is crucially dependent on exports of luxury and precision goods: watches, along with pharmaceuticals, chemicals, machinery and medical instruments, form the pillars of the national economy.

Prolonged Chinese difficulties will also potentially affect the unemployment rate and wages in the central and western regions where precision micro-mechanics is concentrated. Valais, Jura and French Bern have historically depended on the watch sector: a prolonged decline in exports to Asia could have localized employment effects.

How to monitor Swiss economic developments

If you live or work in Switzerland, it is advisable to regularly follow the official reports of the Federation of the Watch Industry and the data of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO/BFS) to understand sectoral trends and the impact on employment. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) also publishes economic analyses that allow the general economic situation to be put into context.

The free trade agreement with China, while positive in perspective, provides for "gradual" tariff reductions: this means that the Italian and Swiss competitive advantage in the Chinese market will slowly unfold. Meanwhile, markets such as the USA and the United Kingdom maintain robust demand, supported by consumers who appreciate the technical and symbolic value of Swiss made watches.

…

Frequently Asked Questions

What do the negative 7-month data (-7.4%) mean if June and July are growing?: The overall seven-month trend is negative (-7.4%) because in the previous months (January-May 2026) there were significant declines. Growth in June and July is positive, but still not enough to offset previous losses. The president of the FH invites not to draw hasty conclusions: just two months of growth do not determine a robust trend in a still uncertain context.
Why does China remain the most problematic market despite the new agreement?: The Chinese market has shrunk by a third in two years. June and July 2026 recorded decreases of -16.5% and -18.5% respectively, with a balance of -7.1% over the first seven months. The free trade agreement signed last week will reduce customs duties gradually, not immediately. In addition, Bugmann points out that at the moment there are no prospects of significant recovery in the Chinese market, despite the first months of 2026 giving hope of having reached the lowest point.
France +70%: does it mean that Swiss watches do well in France?: No. The increase of +70% in the first seven months does not correspond to a boom in French final consumption of watches. According to the FH, France functions primarily as a logistics hub and global redistribution platform. This evolution concerns only intra-EU trade, not the demand for French end-use watches. Bugmann admits that the hypothesis of a change in logistics flows cannot yet be clearly validated.
When will the reduction of customs duties with China come into effect?: The modernised free trade agreement was signed last week between Bern and Beijing. It provides for the gradual elimination of residual customs duties on watchmaking tariff positions. The specific implementation times and precise time schedules remain in the definition phase: Bugmann has not communicated concrete dates of entry into force.
Are the US and UK really solid despite the overall decline at 7 months?: Yes. The United States recorded growth of +14.9% compared to the level at the end of July 2026 to the end of July 2024. The overall seven-month decline (-7.4%) is mainly due to the base effect of April 2025 (+150% in anticipation of US customs duties), not the weakness of the US market. The UK also shows solidity: together with the US, they represent the backbone of Western resilience.