Raiffeisen: GDP at 1.7% in 2026, inflation at 0.7%

Context

TL;DR

• Raiffeisen raises its 2026 GDP estimate to 1,7%
• For 2027, it confirms growth of 1,3%
• 2026 inflation at 0,7%, versus the previously estimated 0,5%
• The SNB could raise interest rates on 10 December

Key facts

• Location → St. Gallen
• Institution → Raiffeisen
• GDP 2026 → 1,7%, excluding the effects of major sporting events
• Previous 2026 GDP estimate → 0,8%
• GDP 2027 → 1,3%
• Inflation 2026 → 0,7%, versus the previous 0,5%
• Inflation 2027 → 1,1%, versus the previous 0,8%
• Next SNB review → December 10

ST. GALLEN – Raiffeisen economists have significantly revised upward their forecasts for the Swiss economy and expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to soon end its zero-interest-rate policy.

In an analysis published today, the cooperative estimates that in 2026 gross domestic product (GDP), excluding the effects of major sporting events, will increase by 1,7%, compared with the 0,8% previously forecast. For 2027, however, Raiffeisen maintains its forecast of growth of 1,3%.

The signals behind the revision

In the institution's view, the Swiss economy continues to recover and, so far, has been little affected by the war in the Middle East. Even the latest escalation of the conflict in September did not dent business confidence.

The picture was supported above all by second-quarter growth data, which came in stronger than expected thanks to the dynamism of the pharmaceutical sector. The upward revision therefore follows economic indicators considered more solid than previously expected.

Raiffeisen has also revised its inflation forecasts upward. For 2026, it forecasts a price increase of 0,7%, compared with the 0,5% previously indicated. For 2027, the expectation is 1,1%, compared with the previous 0,8%.

Specialists explain that the impact of high energy prices should last longer than hoped. Core inflation, on the other hand, is expected to rise as a result of the franc's weakening and greater pressure from abroad.

Hence the possibility that the SNB could raise rates as early as its next assessment of the economic and monetary situation, scheduled for December 10. Raiffeisen notes that the economy is operating close to its potential and that inflation remains within the bank's target range, between 0 and 2%. According to its analysts, keeping rates at zero, so far a measure supporting the economy, is therefore becoming less and less appropriate. The institution is headed by Martin Schlegel.

Operational details

The Raiffeisen report offers two perspectives for those who live or work in Switzerland. On the one hand, expected growth for 2026 is revised sharply upward. On the other, the price trajectory is also revised upward. costo della vita in Svizzera is therefore the practical topic to monitor alongside economic conditions.

The twofold signal for the reader

The figures do not describe the same thing and should not be considered on the same footing. GDP measures the pace of economic growth, while inflation estimates show how Raiffeisen sees price developments. Comparing the previous and new forecasts makes the change in scenario visible:

The practical takeaway is that the bank sees more momentum in growth, but also more persistent price increases than previously estimated. The source links this second revision to the persistence of high energy prices, the weaker franc and pressure from abroad. It is therefore not a single indicator, but two developments to monitor separately.

For the SNB, the point of intersection is the target range between 0 and 2%. Raiffeisen's projected inflation remains within it, while the economy moves closer to its potential. Analysts base the prospect of a forthcoming rate hike on this combination. This does not mean, however, that the decision has already been made: the report speaks of the possibility of action at the next review on 10 December.

The weaker franc is one of the factors cited for underlying price increases. Those who want to keep this factor separate from price developments can read the report alongside a comparatore CHF/EUR. What should not be anticipated remains the SNB's decision: until the review mentioned, this is a Raiffeisen forecast and not the announcement of a measure already adopted.

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Key points

To follow any potential shift in the direction of monetary policy without confusing forecasts and decisions, it is advisable to create a simple monitoring sheet. The source already provides all the necessary elements: reference years, previous estimates, new guidance, causes of rising prices and the date of the SNB review.

A four-step procedure

1. Separate the indicators. Create two separate rows: one for GDP growth and one for inflation. Do not mix the gross domestic product figure with the one for the increase in prices.

2. Place the before and after side by side. For 2026, record the change from 0,8% to 1,7% for GDP and from 0,5% to 0,7% for inflation. For 2027, note the confirmed growth of 1,3% and the expected price increase of 1,1%, compared with the previous 0,8%.

3. Mark December 10. This is the date of the next review of the economic and monetary situation. It should be treated as a date to watch: Raiffeisen indicates that the SNB could intervene, not that a rate hike has already been decided.

4. Check the reasons. In the next update, verify whether energy prices, the weaker franc and pressure from abroad remain central. These are the factors Raiffeisen links to the development of underlying inflation.

This sequence makes it possible to read any updates without turning a forecast into a certainty. It also helps distinguish what concerns growth from what concerns prices, while keeping the reference to the target range between 0 and 2%.

For anyone living or working in Switzerland, the next step is to put their personal budget in order while following economic updates. Use the calcolatore stipendio.

Source: tio.ch