What exactly does “dependency relationship” mean?

The dependency ratio is the number of inactive people (seniors over 65 and young people under 20) who economically burden 100 people of working age (20-64 years). In 2025, the elderly weigh in with an index of 32.8, the young with 32.7: for the first time, the elderly outnumber. It means that more wage contributions are needed to fund pensions and services for the elderly.

Ticino grows demographically less than the national average. What does it imply?

Yes, Ticino recorded 0.2% growth in 2025, the lowest in Switzerland along with Glarus. This reflects a relative aging: fewer net arrivals, more generational outputs. In the medium term, a smaller tax base could put pressure on Ticino's cantonal tax authorities and the ability to finance local services.

Births are down. How serious is the problem?

In 2025, 77,900 births vs 78,300 in 2024 (down 0.5%). The rate of decline is easing: in 2024 it was -2.2%, in 2023 -2.8%. The fertility rate is stable at 1.28 children per woman. It is a long-term structural trend that requires consistent family policies, but it does not accelerate quickly.

Does immigration make up for the generational deficit?

Partially. In 2025, positive migration balance of +70'400 (204'300 immigration - 133'800 emigration), but the flow drops by 14.9% compared to 2024. The foreign population grew by 1.9%, twice as much as Switzerland (+0.4%), also thanks to 41,500 naturalizations. Immigration remains crucial but does not eliminate the structural problem of ageing.

Will the sick pay fund (LAMal) cost more in the future?

Most likely. With 1.811 million residents over 65 growing, the aggregate healthcare costs for this band will increase. The elderly have a demand for benefits 3-4 times higher than the young. Although per capita premiums remain stable, the number of older people paying them grows, amplifying the pressure on cantonal premium subsidy budgets.

Over 65s outnumber under 20s: the Swiss demographic turnaround (cross-border guide)

Di Redazione Frontaliere Ticino · Published on 20 August 2026

Aerial view of Lake Lugano surrounded by Alpine mountains and Swiss towns, peaceful alpine scenery

Over 65s (1.811 million) exceed the under 20s (1.804 million) in Switzerland for the first time. Population grows by 0.8%, with strong implications on AVS, LPP and sick pay.

Context

In a nutshell

For the first time over 65 are over 20 in Switzerland
Population grows by 0.8% in 2025, slower than 2024 (1.0%)
Births falling but at a slower rate than in 2024 and 2023
Net immigration remains positive at +70,400 people

Key facts

When: 2025 (final UST data, just published)
Where: Switzerland (9,127,100 permanent residents)
Who: Federal Statistical Office (FSO)
Demographic inversion: 1.811 million over 65 vs 1.804 million under 20
Population growth: 0.8% per year (slowdown vs 1.0% in 2024)
Migration balance: +70,400 people (-14.9% vs 2024)

For the first time in Swiss demographic history, the number of residents over the age of 65 has surpassed that of young people under the age of 20. This is confirmed by the final data of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), just released, relating to the demographic trend of 2025. A historical scan that shows the progressive ageing of the Swiss population, with significant consequences for the social security system, the labour market and the national public finances.

The over-65s reached 1.811 million people, while the under-20s stood at 1.804 million. The difference is marginal — only 7,000 people — but symbolic: for the first time, the elderly outnumber the young. The economic dependency ratio (number of inactive people per 100 active people between the ages of 20 and 64) also reflects this historic change: the elderly now weigh with

Operational details

Implications for social security and Swiss taxation

The demographic reversal is not just a statistic: it represents a structural challenge for the financing of Swiss social security. With more older and fewer young people active in the labour market, the pressure on AVS (old-age insurance) and LPP (occupational pension) contributions will increase significantly.

Currently, every active resident between the ages of 20 and 64 supports an increasing number of retirees through salary contributions. In 2025, the dependency ratio for the elderly stood at 32.8 inactive per 100 people of working age — for the first time higher than the youth dependency ratio (32.7). It means that the financial burden of the elderly pension has surpassed that of the generational pension. If in 2024 the relationship was still favourable to young people, the gap was cancelled out within a year. By projecting this trend, the burden of the elderly will grow further in the coming decades.

Tax pressure: direct federal tax and LAMal

The direct federal tax, which funds a significant portion of federal social spending (including offsetting AVS across regions), will feel the pressures of this transition. With a 2025 population growth rate of 0.8%, personal income tax revenue could increase less than health and social security expenditures.

The sickness fund (LAMal), in particular,

Useful planning tools

To estimate your pension strategy, use the pension planner and the pillar 3 simulator.

Key points

What to do today to prepare for an ageing population

UST data does not invite panic, but requires awareness and planning. If the elderly dependency ratio has exceeded the youth one, it means that the resources allocated to public pension (AVS) will have to be more rationed in the future, or that wage contributions could increase. In this context, individuals have a responsibility to strengthen their pension security through complementary instruments.

Step 1: Assess your AVS/LPP POSITION

Occupational pension (LPP) in Switzerland is not optional for employees: it is mandatory from a cantonal minimum wage (varies by canton). The contribution is divided by age group: 7% of the coordinated salary for 25-34-year-olds, 10% for 35-44-year-olds, 15% for 45-54-year-olds, and 18% for those close to retirement (55+ up to the reference age). If you've never checked your LPP statement, now is the time. Check the contributions paid so far and the income projection.

For the AVS, the relevant data is the number of years of contribution. As life expectancy increases and the population ages, the AVS system could undergo future adjustments. It is not a given that the AVS pension fully covers the needs of an average pensioner.

Step 2: Strengthen the third pillar

The third pillar 3a (voluntary deposit) is the main tool for supplementing social security

Source: tio.ch

Frequently Asked Questions

What exactly does “dependency relationship” mean?: The dependency ratio is the number of inactive people (seniors over 65 and young people under 20) who economically burden 100 people of working age (20-64 years). In 2025, the elderly weigh in with an index of 32.8, the young with 32.7: for the first time, the elderly outnumber. It means that more wage contributions are needed to fund pensions and services for the elderly.
Ticino grows demographically less than the national average. What does it imply?: Yes, Ticino recorded 0.2% growth in 2025, the lowest in Switzerland along with Glarus. This reflects a relative aging: fewer net arrivals, more generational outputs. In the medium term, a smaller tax base could put pressure on Ticino's cantonal tax authorities and the ability to finance local services.
Births are down. How serious is the problem?: In 2025, 77,900 births vs 78,300 in 2024 (down 0.5%). The rate of decline is easing: in 2024 it was -2.2%, in 2023 -2.8%. The fertility rate is stable at 1.28 children per woman. It is a long-term structural trend that requires consistent family policies, but it does not accelerate quickly.
Does immigration make up for the generational deficit?: Partially. In 2025, positive migration balance of +70'400 (204'300 immigration - 133'800 emigration), but the flow drops by 14.9% compared to 2024. The foreign population grew by 1.9%, twice as much as Switzerland (+0.4%), also thanks to 41,500 naturalizations. Immigration remains crucial but does not eliminate the structural problem of ageing.
Will the sick pay fund (LAMal) cost more in the future?: Most likely. With 1.811 million residents over 65 growing, the aggregate healthcare costs for this band will increase. The elderly have a demand for benefits 3-4 times higher than the young. Although per capita premiums remain stable, the number of older people paying them grows, amplifying the pressure on cantonal premium subsidy budgets.