Uzbekistan: gas and gold at the heart of the world

Context

In brief

• Uzbekistan opens up to new investors with Mirziyoyev
• Gold and gas at the heart of economic growth
• Karimova trial in Switzerland with financial implications

Key facts

• What: Economic and political opening in Uzbekistan
• When: Since 2016 with Mirziyoyev
• Where: Uzbekistan, with impacts in Ticino
• Who: President Shavkat Mirziyoyev
• Amount: 2025 GDP at $137 billion, growth 6.8%

Uzbekistan, located in the heart of Central Asia, represents one of the most strategic yet least known countries on the international scene. A former Soviet republic, independent since 1991, it lived for decades under the presidency of Islam Karimov, until 2016, a highly centralized and authoritarian system. However, in recent years, with the transition to Shavkat Mirziyoyev, there has been a gradual process of political and economic opening, accompanied by growing interest from the international community, especially due to its strategic position and underground wealth.

Between modernization, attempts at reform, and persistent challenges, Uzbekistan finds itself at the center of the new Great Game, in Kipling's memory, among neighboring powers, Russia and China, with new and interested external actors, from the United States to the European Union. Gulnara Karimova, daughter of the former Uzbek president, has been on trial since Monday in Bellinzona. She is accused of money laundering, corruption, and heading a criminal organization. Also indicted is a former manager of Lombard Odier and the bank itself. The disputed funds amount to hundreds of millions. The verdict is expected by the end of May.

Complex Transition

After Karimov's death ten years ago, power passed to Mirziyoyev, a man of the system, who had held the role of prime minister since 2003. His leadership has marked more than anything a change in tone from the past, with the initiation of reforms aimed at improving the country's international image and making the state apparatus more efficient. Political power has remained highly centralized, with elections that, while formally competitive, still do not offer real pluralism, and opposition is limited. Human rights organizations continue to report restrictions on freedom of expression and political participation.

Uzbekistan is therefore in an intermediate phase: no longer rigidly authoritarian as in the past, but not yet fully democratic. Economically, Tashkent represents one of the most dynamic economies in Central Asia, supported by constant growth and a significant endowment of natural resources. According to the International Monetary Fund, GDP reached approximately $137 billion in 2025, with a growth rate around 6.8%, among the highest in the region. In recent years, economic expansion has remained steadily above 6%, accompanied by an increase in per capita GDP to approximately $3,600.

Underground Wealth

The true strength of the country lies in its subsoil: Uzbekistan is one of the world's leading producers of mineral and energy resources. It is the seventh-largest global producer of gold, with around 80 tonnes extracted each year, and possesses one of the world's largest gold reserves. Gold constitutes about 85% of the central bank's reserves, which total approximately $75 billion. The country also has enormous reserves of natural gas: annual production is around 50-60 billion cubic meters, making Uzbekistan one of the region's largest producers. There are approximately 200 hydrocarbon deposits, including both gas and oil. Additionally, there are strategic minerals: Tashkent is among the world's top producers of uranium (fifth place), as well as having significant reserves of copper, tungsten, zinc, and molybdenum.

Balancing East and West

Traditionally, Uzbekistan maintains strategic relations with Russia and China, fundamental partners both economically and militarily, and is part of both the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States, successor to the USSR) and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), led by Moscow and Beijing. However, Tashkent has intensified its relations with the European Union and the United States, seeking to attract investments and support for reforms, aiming to balance the pressures from its imposing neighbors. This multilateral policy, initiated by Karimov and expanded by Mirziyoyev, essentially reflects the country's desire to assert itself as an autonomous actor and avoid excessive dependence on a single power.

Uzbekistan now finds itself at a decisive crossroads in its history: the reforms initiated in recent years have certainly opened new prospects, but the path to full democratization and balanced economic development is still long. Strengthening international relations is key to this transition, although maintaining this balance is undoubtedly difficult.

Operational details

Implications for Ticino and Cross-Border Workers

The economic opening of Uzbekistan and the ongoing trial in Bellinzona against Gulnara Karimova and other defendants, including the Lombard Odier bank, have significant implications for Ticino and cross-border workers. The presence of disputed funds amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars, along with allegations of money laundering and corruption, raise important questions about transparency and financial security in the region.

Impact on Financial Stability

The ongoing legal proceedings could influence investor confidence and the stability of the Ticino financial system. Lombard Odier, involved in the trial, is one of Switzerland's most prestigious financial institutions and a reference point for many cross-border workers operating in the canton. The transparency and security of the Swiss banking system are fundamental to attracting and maintaining foreign investments, and any disruption could have repercussions on investor confidence.

Investment Opportunities

On the other hand, the economic opening of Uzbekistan represents an opportunity for Ticino companies and cross-border workers operating in the financial and natural resources sectors. Uzbekistan, with its mineral and energy wealth, could offer new investment and collaboration opportunities, especially for Swiss companies looking to diversify their portfolios.

Challenges and Considerations

However, it is important to consider the challenges related to this opening. Uzbekistan, despite its progress, remains a country with a still highly centralized political system and limitations on freedom of expression and political participation. This could pose a risk for investors seeking stability and transparency.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the economic opening of Uzbekistan and the ongoing trial in Bellinzona represent both opportunities and challenges for Ticino and cross-border workers. It is crucial to closely monitor the developments of these events to fully understand the implications for the financial system and investment opportunities in the region.

Useful tools to protect your net income

To reduce FX leakage, compare CHF-EUR exchange options and banks for cross-border workers.

Key points

What cross-border workers should do

For cross-border workers operating in the Canton of Ticino, it is important to stay informed about the developments in the case against Gulnara Karimova and the implications for the Swiss financial system. Here are some concrete steps that can be useful:

1. Monitor the news: Closely follow the news related to the trial and the decisions of the Federal Criminal Court. This will help better understand the implications for the financial system and investment opportunities. 2. Consult financial experts: Speak with a financial advisor to evaluate investment opportunities in Uzbekistan and understand the associated risks. 3. Maintain transparency: Ensure that all financial transactions are transparent and compliant with Swiss regulations to avoid potential legal issues. 4. Diversify investments: Consider diversifying investments to reduce risks related to a single market or sector.

Useful tools

To further explore the financial implications and investment opportunities, you can use tools such as the salary calculator and the pension comparator available on Frontaliere Ticino. These tools can help evaluate investment options and plan your financial future in a more secure and informed manner.

Conclusion

In a context of economic opening and financial challenges, it is crucial for cross-border workers to stay informed and make conscious decisions. Using available tools and resources can make a difference in managing opportunities and risks associated with these changes.

Source: rsi.ch