Fertilizers up 40% in Ticino: the Hormuz crisis hits the fields too

Context

TL;DR

• Hormuz Strait closure causes 40% nitrogen fertilizer price hike in Ticino.
• Potassium, phosphorus, calcium, magnesium prices up 10-12%.
• Small farmers hit hardest by supply chain disruptions and margin losses.
• Local solutions like biogas-derived fertilizers are being explored.

Key facts

• Strait of Hormuz: Closed for over a month and a half due to geopolitical tensions.
• Fertilizer price hike: Nitrogen up 40%, other fertilizers up 10-12%.
• Global fertilizer production: About a quarter passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Impact on farmers: Risk losing up to 10% on margins due to price increases.
• Local solutions: Fertilizers derived from biogas plants or manure are being explored.
• Canton of Ticino: Monitoring the situation but no direct support measures announced yet.
• Cross-border workers: Indirect repercussions possible due to increased prices of local produce.
• Price volatility: A box of nitrogen fertilizer costing 50 CHF in March 2024 now exceeds 70 CHF.

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for over a month and a half, and Ticino is feeling the effects even in its fields. The biggest losers are the fertilizers essential for local agriculture. According to Christian Bassi, director of Orticola Bassi SA, nitrogen, potassium, phosphorus, calcium, and magnesium have seen significant price hikes. 'We’ve recorded a sharp increase in costs compared to the pre-war period,' Bassi stated. The data speaks for itself: nitrogen has risen by up to 40%, while potassium, phosphorus, calcium, and magnesium have increased by between 10% and 12%.

The blocked route weighing on Ticino

The Strait of Hormuz is not just a strategic passage for oil. It also carries about a quarter of the world’s fertilizer production. The blockage of this route, due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has disrupted supply chains. 'About a quarter of global fertilizer production passes through the Middle Eastern strait,' Bassi confirms. Orticola Bassi, a Ticinese company that sources directly from Swiss importers, is less affected by the crisis thanks to its structure. However, the situation is hitting small producers the hardest, who struggle to plan purchases and have reduced margins.

An agricultural season under pressure

The first planting season is already over, but the harvest is imminent, and the second sowing is at risk. Bassi explains: 'The first planting is complete and the harvest is just around the corner, but the second is under severe pressure due to the price increases.' Unlike other sectors, such as fuel, farmers cannot easily pass on the cost increases to final prices. 'We can’t halt production, but without adjustments, we risk losing up to 10% on our margins,' he warns.

'It’s difficult for us to pass on the price hikes to the final product' — Christian Bassi, director of Orticola Bassi SA

A long road back to normal

Even if geopolitical tensions stabilize, a return to pre-crisis prices won’t happen overnight. 'Even with peace, a return to normality won’t be immediate,' Bassi emphasizes. The crisis is accelerating trends already in motion: the search for local solutions is becoming increasingly widespread. 'Focusing on fertilizers derived from biogas plants or manure means working with zero-kilometer supply chains and keeping costs down,' the director concludes. A choice that could reshape the future of Ticinese agriculture.

Operational details

The surge in fertilizer prices isn’t just a problem for those who till the land. For Ticino cross-border workers employed in Lombardy or Piedmont, the situation could have indirect repercussions. If local producers raise their prices, the cost of Ticino’s fruit and vegetables will also climb. A domino effect that could influence the daily spending of families living along the Italian-Swiss border.

Before vs. after: what changes for families

Before the Hormuz crisis, fertilizer prices were more stable and predictable. Now, however, volatility has become the norm. A box of nitrogen fertilizer that cost 50 CHF in March 2024 could now exceed 70 CHF, with peaks up to 40% higher. For full-time growers, this means shrinking profit margins. For those buying small quantities for their home garden, the price hike translates into direct cost increases.

The resilience of local supply chains

Not all growers are equally exposed to the crisis. Those who can stock up on fertilizers during periods of market calm, like Orticola Bassi, manage to mitigate the impact. Conversely, those who must purchase on a weekly or monthly basis are struggling. «We have less room for maneuver and reduced planning capacity,» explains Bassi. The solution? Shifting production toward local fertilizers, such as those derived from biogas or manure. A choice that, in addition to containing costs, reduces dependence on fragile global supply chains.

Scenario 1: Geopolitical stabilization

If tensions in Hormuz ease, fertilizer prices could return to pre-crisis levels within 6–12 months. However, Bassi warns: «The return to normal won’t be immediate.» Stockpiles accumulated before the crisis could help buffer the situation, but volatility will remain high for months.

Scenario 2: Prolonged crisis

If the Strait blockade persists, prices could climb even further. Bassi estimates a possible +15–20% increase in nitrogen costs in the coming months, pushing total expenses to record levels. In this case, small producers risk having to reduce cultivated land or even shut down entirely.

📊 The most affected sectors

• Leafy green vegetables: Spinach, lettuce, and cabbage are among the products most sensitive to fertilizer price hikes.
• Fruit plants: Strawberries and small berries could see significant increases in production costs.
• Organic crops: Even those adopting sustainable practices are feeling the pinch, as many organic fertilizers rely on raw materials affected by the blockade.

The role of cantonal institutions

The Canton of Ticino, through the Department of Finance and Economy (DFE), is monitoring the situation closely. However, no specific support measures for farmers have been announced yet. «At the moment, no direct relief is planned,» confirm institutional sources. The focus is on structural solutions, such as supporting local fertilizer production.

💡 Key takeaway

The fertilizer crisis is a reminder of how interconnected global trade is. While the impact on Ticino’s cross-border workers may be indirect, it underscores the need for resilient local supply chains and diversified production strategies to cushion future shocks.

⚠️ What’s next?

Farmers and institutions are closely watching geopolitical developments. A resolution in Hormuz could ease prices, but the volatility of recent months is likely to leave a lasting mark on agricultural planning and consumer spending.

Useful tools to protect your net income

To reduce FX leakage, compare CHF-EUR exchange options and banks for cross-border workers.

Key points

For Ticino's farmers, the fertilizer crisis demands immediate strategies to avoid economic losses. Here's what to do, step by step.

Step 1: Assess current stock

First, check your existing fertilizer stockpiles. If you purchased ahead of time, you may have already mitigated some of the price surge. 'Those who stocked up in recent months are less affected by the crisis,' explains Bassi.

Step 2: Contact alternative suppliers

If you rely on Swiss importers sourcing from Hormuz, consider local suppliers. Orticola Bassi, for example, buys directly from Swiss producers with access to alternative routes. 'Opting for zero-kilometer products is the most efficient solution,' suggests Bassi.

Step 3: Optimize fertilizer use

Reducing waste can make a significant difference. Some farmers are experimenting with slow-release fertilizers or fertigation techniques to minimize losses.

Step 4: Explore local solutions

Fertilizers derived from biogas plants or manure offer a viable alternative. 'These products not only cost less but also reduce environmental impact,' emphasizes Bassi. For those willing to experiment, the Canton of Ticino provides consultations through SUPSI (University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland) for sustainable agriculture.

Step 5: Monitor prices and plan purchases

With current volatility, closely tracking prices and purchasing only when quotes are favorable is essential. 'Planning capabilities have become crucial,' states Bassi.

When to seek help

If the situation becomes unsustainable, the Canton of Ticino offers free consultations through the agriculture offices. Simply contact the DFE to book an appointment. 'No direct financial support is provided, but consultations can help optimize costs,' explain officials.

📊 Useful tools for farmers

• Cost calculator: A digital tool to estimate the impact of price hikes on profit margins. Agricultural cost calculator
• Local supplier list: Updated directory of Ticino and Swiss fertilizer producers and distributors. Supplier list
• SUPSI guide on sustainable agriculture: Resources to reduce dependence on foreign fertilizers. SUPSI guide

What to expect in the coming months

If the Hormuz crisis resolves quickly, prices could return to pre-war levels by late summer. However, experts warn: 'The fragility of global supply chains won’t disappear with peace.' For this reason, many farmers are already revising their 2025 production plans.

⚠️ Actions for cross-border workers

Even those working in Lombardy or Piedmont but living in Ticino may feel indirect effects. If prices for Ticino-grown fruit and vegetables rise, daily household expenses for cross-border families could also be impacted. In this case, monitoring local producer price lists and considering group purchases to reduce costs is advisable.

Source: ticinonews.ch