How much is the geopolitical risk index for Ticino?

In the period analysed, the geopolitical risk index for the Ticino economy stands at a value of 42, standing at an average level and being lower than that of Switzerland, which stands at 47.

How does the geopolitical risk assessment scale work?

The instrument establishes that the index is considered low up to a value of 40, falls in the mid-range for values between 41 and 60, and becomes high when it exceeds the threshold of sixty points.

What are the main threats analysed by the study for the industry?

Factors under scrutiny include the threats of tariffs imposed by the United States, in particular on the pharmaceutical sector, as well as the analysis of other production sectors such as clothing, machinery and industrial metals.

Ticino measures geopolitical risk with a new index (cross-border guide)

Di Redazione Frontaliere Ticino · Published on 12 September 2026

View of Lugano and lake under cloudy sky

A new 54-page document assesses global tensions and the impact on the Ticino economy, offering analysis and forecasts for businesses.

Context

In brief

54-page tool to assess global risks
Ticino index at 42 compared to 47 for Switzerland
Pharmaceutical sector accounts for 21% of exports
Threats of customs tariffs from the United States

Key facts

What: Assessment of geopolitical and macroeconomic risks
When: Current analysis period with global tensions
Where: Canton of Ticino and Switzerland
Who: Consultant and analyst Sergio Giraldo
Amount: Ticino index at 42, Switzerland at 47

International events such as the war in Ukraine, US tariffs, and the conflict in Iran with tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are directly reflected in the cantonal economy. To help companies evaluate and anticipate these dynamics, a specific tool has been introduced. This is a 54-page document that gathers geopolitical and macroeconomic information, establishing a risk index aimed at identifying trends with an early reading compared to normal.

Industrial risk analysis

According to what consultant and analyst Sergio Giraldo explained to Quotidiano, for Ticino industry this risk stands at a medium level, although there are signs suggesting a potential increase. The reference index provides a baseline threshold of up to 40 for a low level, is between 41 and 60 for the medium level, and exceeds sixty for the high threshold. Currently, the cantonal economy records a value of 42, positioning itself at a better level than that of the Confederation, which instead stands at 47. This gap is also due to the local economic structure, where the pharmaceutical sector represents a significant component of cantonal exports, accounting for 21 percent, while at the national level the same sector accounts for 41 percent of total foreign sales.

Operational details

Pressure factors on the supply chain

The economic supply chain monitored by the study is among the eight sections examined under the analysts' lens and is particularly exposed to external pressures. Points of attention include threats related to the introduction of customs tariffs by the United States. The analysis also explores other productive sectors present in the region, including apparel, machinery, and industrial metals, each subjected to targeted assessments to estimate vulnerability towards international markets.

The issue of tariffs takes on complex outlines due to the application methods planned by the US government. As highlighted by the technical analysis, the United States has imposed tariffs on pharmaceuticals that will enter into force in the coming months, unless individual corporate entities manage to stipulate separate agreements with the US administration to keep price lists within certain thresholds. This dual-track mechanism risks widening the gap between large industrial groups, which have the necessary resources to negotiate direct agreements, and smaller business entities, unable to move with the same flexibility on the international market. This dynamic becomes part of the variables monitored monthly by experts.

Recent tensions recorded in the Strait of Hormuz, characterized by warfare events and nighttime bombings, also contribute to generating instability on international energy markets, pushing oil prices upward and fueling further uncertainties for the productive and economic fabric that looks beyond national borders.

Recommended tools

For an updated estimate, use the net salary calculator and the CHF-EUR exchange comparator.

Key points

Operational management and control tools

To face a macroeconomic context characterised by increasing volatility, local production companies and professionals who work closely with the cross-border labour market must carefully monitor the evolution of commercial scenarios. The use of forward-looking indicators allows you to anticipate trends and plan operational strategies, reducing the margins of uncertainty related to tax or customs decisions of large foreign trading partners.

The timely assessment of risks related to customs tariffs and commodity fluctuations requires constant updating on the dynamics that regulate trade between Switzerland and global markets. To deepen the economic impact and evaluate your income and contribution position in this evolving scenario, you can consult the dedicated services available online calcola il tuo stipendio netto.

Source: rsi.ch

Frequently Asked Questions

How much is the geopolitical risk index for Ticino?: In the period analysed, the geopolitical risk index for the Ticino economy stands at a value of 42, standing at an average level and being lower than that of Switzerland, which stands at 47.
How does the geopolitical risk assessment scale work?: The instrument establishes that the index is considered low up to a value of 40, falls in the mid-range for values between 41 and 60, and becomes high when it exceeds the threshold of sixty points.
What are the main threats analysed by the study for the industry?: Factors under scrutiny include the threats of tariffs imposed by the United States, in particular on the pharmaceutical sector, as well as the analysis of other production sectors such as clothing, machinery and industrial metals.