Betting on war and Trump: prediction market boom
Platforms like Polymarket allow betting on global events, but with ethical and financial risks.
Contesto
In brief - Betting on war and political speeches on platforms like Polymarket - Risk of desensitization from reality - Platforms not authorized in Switzerland but accessible with VPN ## Key facts - What: Betting on global events - When: 2026 - Where: Online platforms like Polymarket - Who: Prediction market users - Amount: Winnings of tens of thousands of dollars Videos showing hefty winnings made on platforms like Polymarket are trending on social media. Bets are placed on events such as the return of Jesus, a possible divorce between celebrities, the words Trump will use in his next speech, and even the war in the Middle East. Matteo Bizzozero, head of the behavioral disorders section at the Ingrado competence center against addictions, explains that these platforms position themselves as a middle ground between investment and betting. However, the use of these platforms raises ethical and moral questions. Users risk becoming desensitized to reality, as if a person chooses to bet on war dynamics, they are clearly not reflecting on what is behind it. They are not thinking that they are betting on real bombings, on the life and death of other people. ### The social problem The 'social' element, in this sense, is particularly insidious. There are indeed countless videos online showing very young people winning tens of thousands of dollars by predicting that Trump would utter a certain word in his speech of the moment. And they collect millions of views. 'The problem is that those who publish these videos only show when it goes well, creating a distorted image of reality. While that single person wins, in fact, we don't know how many other thousands of people are losing. And we don't know how much the person has lost in previous bets...or if after the win they bet it a...
Dettagli operativi
Practical implications for cross-border workers Prediction markets are a growing phenomenon that could also interest cross-border workers who commute to Switzerland and live in Italy. The ease of access to these platforms via VPN raises important questions about financial security and data protection. Cross-border workers should be aware of the risks associated with these bets, especially considering that the platforms are not regulated in Switzerland. ### Comparison with other forms of betting Unlike traditional betting, prediction markets are based on global and political events, making them even riskier. The lack of regulation and the possibility of losing significant amounts of money without any protection make these platforms particularly dangerous. Cross-border workers should carefully consider the risks before using these platforms, also considering the ethical and moral implications of their choices. ### Possible scenarios A cross-border worker who decides to bet on a political event might find it difficult to distinguish between reality and fiction. Desensitization from reality can lead to reckless financial decisions, with negative consequences for economic stability. Moreover, the lack of regulation means there are no guarantees of recovering money in case of problems with the platform. ### Practical advice For cross-border workers who are tempted to use these platforms, it is essential to inform themselves about the risks and legal implications. It is advisable to avoid betting on events that could have serious consequences in real life, such as wars or political crises. Additionally, it is important to consider the impact of betting on one's financial and psychological well-being. ## Recommended tools For an updated estimate, use the net salary calculat...
Punti chiave
What to do if already involved If a cross-border worker has already used platforms like Polymarket, it's important to carefully monitor their activities and limit losses. It's advisable to avoid using VPNs to access these platforms, as this could result in losing the deposited money. Additionally, it's crucial to seek support from experts in behavioral addictions to manage any issues related to gambling. ### Useful tools For those who want to delve deeper into the financial implications of online betting, the salary calculator can be used to assess the impact of losses on their finances. Additionally, it's helpful to consult the guides available on the site to better understand the risks associated with these platforms. ### Conclusion Prediction markets represent a complex phenomenon that raises important ethical, financial, and legal questions. For cross-border workers, it's fundamental to be aware of the risks and implications of their choices. Using tools like the salary calculator can help manage finances better and avoid reckless decisions. In case of doubts or problems, it's always advisable to turn to experts for personalized support and advice. Source: tio.ch
Punti chiave
[{"q":"What are prediction markets?","a":"Prediction markets are online platforms that allow betting on future events, such as political speeches or international conflicts. These markets position themselves as a middle ground between investment and gambling, but they raise ethical and moral questions."},{"q":"Are they legal in Switzerland?","a":"At the moment, platforms like Polymarket are not authorized in Switzerland. However, they can be accessed via VPN, although this involves significant risks, such as losing the deposited money and lack of legal protection."},{"q":"What are the risks associated with prediction markets?","a":"Risks include desensitization from reality, losing significant amounts of money without any protection, and the ethical and moral implications of betting on serious events like wars or political crises."}]
Frequently Asked Questions
- What are prediction markets?
- Prediction markets are online platforms that allow betting on future events, such as political speeches or international conflicts. These markets position themselves as a middle ground between investment and gambling, but they raise ethical and moral questions.
- Are they legal in Switzerland?
- At the moment, platforms like Polymarket are not authorized in Switzerland. However, they can be accessed via VPN, although this involves significant risks, such as losing the deposited money and lack of legal protection.
- What are the risks associated with prediction markets?
- Risks include desensitization from reality, losing significant amounts of money without any protection, and the ethical and moral implications of betting on serious events like wars or political crises.