November 29 vote: AVS and military materiel uncertain

Context

TL;DR

• The 29 November vote remains uncertain regarding AVS and war materiel
• VAT for the 13th pension: 46% yes, 49% no
• War materiel: 49% opposed, 41% in favor
• gfs.bern poll conducted from 5 to 18 October

Key facts

• Voting day → 29 November
• Institute → gfs.bern
• Mandate → SSR
• Survey period → 5–18 October
• OASI financing → 46% yes, 49% no, 5% undecided
• War materiel → 41% yes, 49% no, 10% undecided
• Taxation of married couples → 55% yes, 34% no, 11% undecided
• Fireworks → 69% yes, 29% no, 2% undecided

Two issues still unresolved

Six weeks before the 29 November vote, the first poll conducted by the gfs.bern institute on behalf of SSR paints a divided picture. The survey was conducted between 5 and 18 October and published today. The news item, marked Keystone-ATS, summarizes voting intentions on the four items on the ballot.

Additional OASI financing through an increase in VAT remains in the balance. 46% of respondents are in favor, 49% opposed and 5% have not yet decided. Among SP supporters, the yes vote reaches 60%, while it stands at 58% among Greens and Centre supporters and at 56% among GLP supporters. The SVP, by contrast, records 68% no votes and the FDP 54%.

The demographic profile further differentiates voting intentions. Among those aged 18 to 39, support for the financing is 35%; among those over 65, it rises to 55%. By sex, men reject the proposal more strongly, with 52% opposed. Among women, the figures are balanced: 47% are in favor and 47% opposed. The difference between the linguistic regions is smaller: approval reaches 45% in German-speaking Switzerland and 47% in both Romandy and Italian-speaking Switzerland.

The revision of the Federal Act on War Material also has no clear majority. 49% say they are opposed, 41% are in favor and 10% remain undecided. Those aged 18 to 39 are more opposed to the proposal, with 54% voting no, while among those over 65, the yes vote reaches 60%. By gender, 57% of men support easing the rules on exports of war materiel, compared with 41% of women. By language, support is 53% in German-speaking Switzerland, 37% in Romandy and 45% in Italian-speaking Switzerland.

Operational details

Comparison between the two uncertain proposals

Different margins in the same poll

The arithmetic comparison between the two proposals shows two close, but not identical, situations. For AVS financing, no votes exceed yes votes by 3 percentage points: 49% versus 46%, with 5% undecided. For war materiel, the gap is 8 points: 49% opposed versus 41% in favor, while 10% are undecided. These are differences calculated based on the values published by the poll, not definitive voting results.

The distribution by age follows a similar direction in both cases, but with different indicators. For AVS financing, support rises from 35% among 18-39-year-olds to 55% among over-65s: a difference of 20 points. For war materiel, by contrast, no prevails among younger people at 54%, while yes prevails among over-65s at 60%. The figure does not measure the same response in the two proposals, but indicates how age separates voting intentions in both issues.

The regional factor also produces two different maps. For AVS financing, the difference between 45% in German-speaking Switzerland and 47% in the other two language regions is only 2 points. For war materiel, the distance between German-speaking Switzerland and Romandy is 16 points, while that between German-speaking Switzerland and Italian-speaking Switzerland is 8 points.

The political comparison follows the same line of separation. For AVS, yes votes prevail among PS, Verdi, Centro and PVL, respectively at 60%, 58%, 58% and 56%. No votes are instead 68% among UDC sympathizers and 54% among PLR sympathizers. For war materiel, Verdi and PS reject the change with 63% and 62% no votes. Support instead reaches 73% among PLR sympathizers, 65% in Centro, 60% in PVL and 57% in UDC. The source reports these distributions without indicating voters' reasons.

Key points

The two initiatives leaning toward yes

Fireworks: the broadest support

The proposal that appears relatively less contested is the «For a restriction on fireworks» Initiative. 69% of respondents say they are in favor, 29% against, and only 2% undecided. The difference between yes and no is therefore 40 percentage points, calculated based on the survey figures.

Support remains in the majority in the political breakdown reported by the poll. Among the various party electorates cited, the shares in favor are 59%, 67%, 80%, 83% and 91%. The source therefore shows a range of 59% to 91% for this initiative, in addition to the overall figure of 69%.

The difference is also visible by gender: women support the proposal with 76% yes, compared with 60% among men. In the language regions, the initiative receives 69% in German-speaking Switzerland, 67% in French-speaking Switzerland and 61% in Italian-speaking Switzerland. By age, approval is strongest among those over 65, at 73%, while among 18- to 39-year-olds it stands at 66%.

receives 55% of the support. Those opposed account for 34%, while 11% have not yet taken a position. Compared with the fireworks initiative, the margin in favor is smaller and there are more undecided respondents.

Among the parties, the initiative receives 71% yes among Centre voters and 64% among UDC voters. In the PLR, 52% are in favor, with a still significant share undecided. The Greens and PS both stand at 40% yes, while the PVL reaches 45%.

The regional differences are more pronounced than the age-related ones. In Italian-speaking Switzerland, support reaches 65%, followed by 60% in French-speaking Switzerland and 53% in German-speaking Switzerland. By age, those in favor account for 52% among 18- to 39-year-olds, 58% among 40- to 64-year-olds and 54% among those over 65.

The overall picture described by Keystone-ATS is therefore one of two initiatives leaning toward yes, but with different levels of support, alongside two projects that are still uncertain. The available text reports voting intentions collected from October 5 to 18; it does not document the result of the vote or indicate the reasons for the choices expressed. For the pension-related strand, the internal reference is AVS and pension.

Source: swissinfo.ch