What are the forecasts for the navigability of the Rhine by 2100?

According to Massimiliano Zappa, hydrologist of the WSL, the critical level of the Rhine — which in the last century was recorded for about two weeks a year — could extend up to five months by the end of the century due to the reduction of winter snow and the melting of glaciers. Already today, dry periods occur frequently (2003, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2026), putting river navigability at risk.

What economic impacts does the dry Rhine have for Switzerland and Germany?

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy points out that a thirty-day low water phase reduces Germany's industrial production by one percent. For Switzerland, which is landlocked and depends on the Rhine for ten percent of its foreign trade in goods, a prolonged blockade of shipping would have serious repercussions on supply chains and transport costs.

What countermeasures are evaluated to deal with navigation blocks?

Jan-Egbert Sturm, Director of the KOF, stresses the need to move increasing volumes of freight by rail, road and air, although this would require multibillion-dollar investments. At the same time, the HGK group is focusing on renewing the fleet with larger vessels with reduced draught, dredging the seabed at critical points and increasing intermediate deposits.

Non-navigable Rhine: the alarm for the economy and Switzerland (cross-border guide)

Di Redazione Frontaliere Ticino · Published on 28 August 2026

The Rhine water level during a drought affecting logistics

By 2100 the Rhine could be impassable for up to five months of the year. The repercussions on Swiss foreign trade and Germany are heavy.

Context

In a nutshell

WSL: Rhine impractical up to 5 months a year by 2100
1% of German industrial production lost for 30 dry days
10% of Swiss foreign trade in goods passes through the Rhine
Heatwave 2026 causes river levels to plummet

Key facts

What: Alarm about the future navigability of the Rhine
When: Scenario to 2100; heatwave summer 2026
Where: Rhine, with impacts on Switzerland (Basel) and Europe
Who: Massimiliano Zappa, hydrologist of the WSL; Jan-Egbert Sturm, director of the KOF; HGK Group; Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Data: Rare historical dry spells, now recurring (2003, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2026)
Amount: 1% less German industrial production for every 30 days of low water
Amount: 10% of Swiss foreign trade in goods transits the Rhine
Volume: Over half of Swiss imports via the Rhine are fossil fuels

The heat wave that hit Europe in the summer of 2026 caused the level of the Rhine to plummet, throwing river navigation into tilt and sending gasoline prices skyrocketing. Massimiliano Zappa, hydrologist at the Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape (WSL), raised the alarm about the future prospects of the river, in statements collected by Blick. For Zappa, the Rhine is destined to become "increasingly unreliable for navigation", with increasingly long and frequent dry periods.

If in the last century the interruptions due to drought

Operational details

The consequences of the scenario described by the WSL do not remain confined to the ports of Rotterdam or the factories of the Ruhr. For Switzerland, without direct access to the sea, the Rhine represents a strategic logistics infrastructure: 10% of foreign trade in goods passes through its riverbed. A prolonged blockage of shipping would have direct repercussions on supply chains, transport costs and, consequently, on consumer prices in Swiss domestic economies.

Jan-Egbert Sturm, director of KOF, the economic research centre of the Federal Polytechnic University of Zurich, warned of the necessary countermeasures: "We will have to move more and more goods by rail, road and air". A logistically possible but economically burdensome transition. Expanding the capacity of trains and motorways to absorb the volumes currently transported by river would cost billions of francs, as Sturm himself explained to the Zurich newspaper.

The Fossil Fuel Knot

A paradoxically positive aspect concerns the composition of river traffic. More than half of the volume of Swiss imports via the Rhine today consists of fossil fuels. If the Confederation's energy transition plan goes into effect — with the gradual exit from dependence on oil and gas — the negative effects on logistics will be mitigated. Otherwise, Sturm hypothesizes the need to increase strategic reserves, with

Useful planning tools

To estimate your pension strategy, use the pension planner and the pillar 3 simulator.

Key points

For those who live or work in Switzerland, the scenario outlined by WSL experts is not a climatic abstraction, but a concrete economic variable. If the Rhine were to remain impassable for months, the repercussions would ripple along the logistics chain all the way to road and rail transport, affecting procurement costs and, indirectly, the cost of living. Understanding the risk is the first step in adopting strategies to protect income and purchasing power.

What to monitor in the coming months

The first indicator to keep an eye on is the water level of the Rhine in Basel, published daily by the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN). When the flow rate drops below critical values, historically we observe delivery delays and increases in river freight rates, which cascade down to the prices of imported fuels and raw materials.

Adapting the family budget

In the event of prolonged disruptions, families living in Switzerland may face price increases on imported goods and energy. Tools such as the salary calculator help simulate the impact of unexpected inflation on the monthly budget, while the cost of living comparator allows you to evaluate how essential expenses—rent, health insurance premiums, groceries—change from one canton to another.

Investments and retirement planning

Those who have a Pillar 3a can consider diversification strategies that take into account systemic risks related to climate change and global supply chain disruptions. The third pillar tool allows you to calculate deductible contributions and the tax impact on your tax return. For those nearing retirement, even AHV/BVG pension planning deserves an update in light of potentially less favorable macroeconomic scenarios.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the forecasts for the navigability of the Rhine by 2100?: According to Massimiliano Zappa, hydrologist of the WSL, the critical level of the Rhine — which in the last century was recorded for about two weeks a year — could extend up to five months by the end of the century due to the reduction of winter snow and the melting of glaciers. Already today, dry periods occur frequently (2003, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2026), putting river navigability at risk.
What economic impacts does the dry Rhine have for Switzerland and Germany?: The Kiel Institute for the World Economy points out that a thirty-day low water phase reduces Germany's industrial production by one percent. For Switzerland, which is landlocked and depends on the Rhine for ten percent of its foreign trade in goods, a prolonged blockade of shipping would have serious repercussions on supply chains and transport costs.
What countermeasures are evaluated to deal with navigation blocks?: Jan-Egbert Sturm, Director of the KOF, stresses the need to move increasing volumes of freight by rail, road and air, although this would require multibillion-dollar investments. At the same time, the HGK group is focusing on renewing the fleet with larger vessels with reduced draught, dredging the seabed at critical points and increasing intermediate deposits.