Housing market: between population growth and supply

Context

In brief

• Situation worsened in 2025 and the first half of 2026
• Population growth and rents are closely linked
• Growth in the housing stock expected no earlier than 2027

Key facts

• Date: September 16, 2026
• Office: Federal Housing Office
• Population growth 1990-2025: 36.9%
• New homes on pre-existing buildings in 2025: 18%
• Available building zones in 2022: 6.9%

The latest update from the online housing market monitoring of the Federal Housing Office shows that the situation in Switzerland further deteriorated in 2025 and the first half of 2026. Individuals with medium or low purchasing power looking for housing are particularly affected. The analysis also examines the relationship between immigration and the housing market in detail: it turns out that, in addition to demographic trends, income and housing supply also influence rent trends. Tensions in the Swiss housing market continue to rise. The situation remains particularly critical for households with low purchasing power, as well as in the metropolitan area of Zurich, Central Switzerland, and several mountain regions. One of the reasons is that too little is being built to keep pace with the increasing number of households. The increase in households is also linked to population growth. Between 1990 and 2025, the latter actually increased by 36.9%: 15.0 percentage points are attributable to the Swiss population, while 21.9 percentage points to the foreign population. Demographic growth increases the demand for housing, which also affects rent trends. However, income also plays an important role: if households can spend more on a house or an apartment, price pressure increases, especially if supply is limited. According to the analysis, in the long term, the effect of income on rents is almost equal to that of population growth. Two other factors are also decisive: the actual increase in the number of dwellings and the ability of supply to keep pace with demand. In 2025, about 18% of new homes were built in place of pre-existing buildings, thus limiting the net increase in the housing stock. Building land is also increasingly scarce: between 2012 and 2022 in the analyzed regions, the percentage of still available building zones fell from 9.9% to 6.9%.

Demographic and territorial details

The report highlights how pressure is concentrated in specific areas of the federal territory, creating strong regional disparities and putting pressure on the budgets of households looking for housing solutions suited to their economic possibilities.

Operational details

Foreign households more frequently looking for a home. The analysis also shows that foreign households, meaning those in which no one holds Swiss citizenship, are more mobile than Swiss ones. They account for about 21% of the total, but 39% of those that move. Ceteris paribus, they occupy about a quarter less living space per capita than Swiss households. In 2025, they averaged 2.08 people, slightly fewer than other households. Foreign households depend to a greater extent on the rental market: only 12% live in an owner-occupied home, compared to 42% of Swiss ones. Given that they move more often and on average enter into shorter-term contracts, they benefit less from the generally lower rents of older contracts. In relation to income, their rental expenses therefore tend to be higher.

Impact on contracts and housing expenditure

The analysis of residential mobility highlights particular dynamics related to the demographic composition of the country. Those who move more frequently inevitably face less favorable market conditions, having to sign new contracts subject to the most recent price increases, while those who have occupied the same dwelling for many years manage to benefit from conditions of greater economic stability and historically lower rents compared to the current average recorded in the various Swiss regions.

Recommended tools

For an updated estimate, use the net salary calculator and the CHF-EUR exchange comparator.

Key points

Growth of the housing stock no earlier than 2027. For 2026, the monitoring predicts a still too weak growth of the housing stock. The increase in applications and building permits recorded since 2024, however, indicates that the number of homes is expected to return to a more sustained growth by 2027. However, there is no sign of a rapid easing of tensions in the housing market. Low interest rates and modest inflation in 2026 will ensure substantially stable royalties for existing contracts, while higher rents are expected for new ones.

Forecasts and future prospects

For those who are considering changing their home or planning their family expenses in the coming months, it is essential to monitor the evolution of rates and the trend of the cantonal and federal real estate market. Forecasts indicate that stability will mainly affect existing leases, while access to new housing solutions will require a careful assessment of available resources. To learn more about managing expenses and the impact on the family budget, you can consult our calcolatore stipendio e imposte.

Source: admin.ch