The financial outlook for AHV and IV worsens (cross-border guide)

Di Valerie Linc · Published on

According to the FSIO, the deficits in the Old-Age and Survivors' Insurance and the Disability Insurance will increase in the coming years.

Contesto

In a nutshell - UFAS has released updated data on the financial outlook of AVS and AI. - The AI deficit could reach CHF 800 million by 2030. - The AVS will be affected by the introduction of the 13th annuity. ## Key facts - What: Worsening financial outlook for AVS and AI. - When: Updated data published on June 24, 2026. - Where: Switzerland. - Who: Federal Office of Social Insurance (UFAS). - Amount: AI deficit could reach 800 million francs by 2030. The financial prospects of Old Age and Survivors Insurance (AVS) and Disability Insurance (AI) are worsening. This is what emerges from the updated data published on Thursday by the Federal Office of Social Insurance (UFAS). For AI, the allocation deficit was CHF 209 million in 2025 and, due to the sharp increase in new rents, could reach CHF 800 million by 2030. AVS will also be affected by the introduction of the 13th annuity, scheduled for December and currently without definitive financing. According to UFAS estimates, the apportionment deficit will increase from CHF 1.3 billion in 2026 to CHF 4.9 billion in 2035. However, the UFAS points out that, if the VAT increase of 0.4 percentage points decided by Parliament to finance the 13th annuity is approved by the people and comes into force in 2028, the deficit in the distribution of the AVS

Dettagli operativi

The financial outlook for AHV and IV worsens The worsening financial outlook for AHV (Old-Age and Survivors' Insurance) and IV (Disability Insurance) will have significant implications for Swiss taxpayers. Rising deficits could lead to higher taxes or reduced benefits. If the VAT increase is not approved, the AHV deficit will continue to grow, putting the sustainability of the pension system at risk. It is crucial that parliament and the people make informed decisions to ensure the financial stability of these social insurances. ### Analysis of the Financial Perspective According to the Federal Social Insurance Office (FSIO), the AHV deficit is expected to increase from CHF 2.3 billion in 2023 to CHF 5.7 billion in 2030. This increase is mainly due to the ageing of the population and the decrease in the number of active workers. IV, on the other hand, faces similar challenges, with a projected deficit of CHF 1.2 billion by 2030. ### Implications for Taxpayers The increase in deficits could result in several corrective measures. One of the options is to increase taxes. For example, an increase in VAT from 7.7% to 8.1% could generate additional revenue of around CHF 1.5 billion per year. However, this measure must be approved by parliament and the people in a referendum. Another option is the reduction of benefits. This could include raising the retirement age or decreasing benefits. For example, the retirement age for women is currently set at 64, but it could be increased to 65 to bring it into line with that of men. ### Practical Scenarios and Comparison #### Practical Scenarios 1. VAT increase: If VAT increases, Swiss consumers will pay more for goods and services. For example, a product that costs 100 francs today would cost 102.75 francs with a VAT of 8.1%. 2. Reduction of Benefits: If AHV benefits are reduced, retirees may see a decrease in their monthly income. For example, a current pension of 2,000 francs could be reduced to 1,800 francs. #### Scenario Comparison | Scenarios | VAT increase | Reduction of Benefits | |-------------------|-------------|--------------------| | Additional Revenue| 1.5 billion| - | | Impact on Consumers | Price increase | Reduction in pensions | | Approval Required | Referendum | Parliamentary decision | ### Operational Checklist for Parliament and the People 1. Evaluate Tax Options: Analyze the impact of a VAT increase on Swiss households. 2. Review Benefits Reforms: Consider the impact of a reduction in benefits on retirees. 3. Compare Scenarios: Weigh the pros and cons of each option. 4. Consult the Experts: Obtain opinions from economists and financial analysts. 5. Inform the Public: Clearly communicate the implications of decisions to the Swiss people. ### Conclusion The worsening financial outlook for AHV and IV calls for urgent and informed decisions. Both the increase in VAT and the reduction in benefits have significant implications for Swiss taxpayers. It is crucial that parliament and the people make decisions based on evidence and detailed analyses to ensure the financial sustainability of these social insurances. > "The sustainability of our pension system is a national priority. We must act now to ensure that future generations of pensioners are not put at risk." - Federal Social Insurance Office (FSIO)

Punti chiave

The financial outlook for AHV and IV is worsening For Swiss citizens, it is important to monitor the evolution of this financial outlook closely. If the VAT increase is approved, taxpayers will need to be aware of the tax changes and their implications. In addition, it is advisable to consult the information provided by the FSIO regularly to stay up to date with decisions that could affect your retirement future. For further details and to calculate the impact of tax changes, you can use the calcolatore delle imposte. ### Background and Implications The FSIO (Federal Social Insurance Office) recently published a report highlighting a worsening of the financial outlook for the AHV (Old-Age and Survivors' Insurance) and the IV (Disability Insurance). This worsening is due to a combination of factors, including an aging population, increased life expectancy, and a declining birth rate. ### VAT increase: what changes? The increase in VAT is one of the measures proposed to address the financial deficit of the AHV and IV. If approved, VAT could increase from 7.7% to 8.1%, with a direct impact on citizens' daily expenses. For example, a Zurich citizen who spends an average of 300 francs per month on goods subject to VAT would see an increase in expenses of around 12 francs per month. ### Operational Checklist for Taxpayers 1. Monitor Official Communications: Subscribe to FSIO newsletters to receive direct updates. 2. Consult the Tax Calculator: Use the calcolatore delle imposte to estimate the impact of tax changes. 3. Participate in Public Consultations: Participate in public consultations organized by the cantons to express their opinions. 4. Plan Personal Finances: Review the family budget to adapt to any tax changes. ### Concrete examples - Zurich: A Zurich citizen earning 80,000 francs per year would see a tax increase of around 240 francs per year if VAT increased to 8.1%. - Geneva: A Geneva citizen who spends 400 francs per month on goods subject to VAT would see an increase in expenses of about 16 francs per month. - Basel: A citizen of Basel earning 60,000 francs per year would see a tax increase of around 180 francs per year. ### Regulations and Key Dates - AHV Act: The AHV Act stipulates that any change to VAT rates must be approved by Parliament and submitted to a popular referendum. - Effective Date: If approved, the VAT increase could come into effect from January 1, 2025. - Amounts: The proposed increase in VAT is 0.4 percentage points, bringing the rate from 7.7% to 8.1%. ### Comparison of Practical Scenarios - Scenario 1: Increase in VAT: With an increase in VAT to 8.1%, a citizen who spends 500 francs per month on goods subject to VAT would see an increase in expenses of about 20 francs per month. - Scenario 2: No VAT Increase: If VAT remains at 7.7%, monthly expenses would remain unchanged, but the AHV and IV financial deficit could increase, leading to further savings measures or increase in contribution rates. ### Conclusion In conclusion, it is crucial that Swiss citizens remain informed and prepared for any tax changes. Using tools such as the tax calculator and participating in public consultations can help you better understand the impact of government decisions on your financial future. ⚠️ Caution: The information provided is based on current data and may be subject to change. It is advisable to consult the official FSIO communications regularly to stay up to date.

Frequently Asked Questions
What are the causes of the worsening financial outlook for AVS and AI?
The main causes include the increase in new annuities for AI and the introduction of the 13th annuity for AVH, which currently has no definitive funding.
What are the possible solutions to reduce AVS and AI deficits?
One possible solution is to increase VAT by 0.4 percentage points, which could reduce the GVA allocation deficit in 2030.
What happens if the VAT increase is not approved?
If the VAT increase is not approved, the AVH deficit will continue to grow, putting the sustainability of the pension system at risk.

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