High risk of fuel shortage in Switzerland: here's why

Context

In brief

• Fuel shortage in Switzerland: 'very high' risk
• Strategic reserves depleted in countries like the Philippines and Vietnam
• Oil price exceeds 125 dollars per barrel

Key facts

• What: Fuel shortage in Switzerland
• When: From May 2026
• Where: Switzerland, with reserves stored in Germany and France
• Who: Florence Schurch, Secretary General of Suissenégoce
• Amount: Oil price at 125 dollars per barrel, with forecasts up to 150

The fuel shortage in Switzerland is a 'very high' risk, according to Florence Schurch, Secretary General of Suissenégoce, the Swiss association of raw materials trade. In an interview with the Romandy newspapers Tribune de Geneva and 24 heures, Schurch expressed concern about the current situation. As early as March, the association had warned that the strategic reserves of some countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam, and Bangladesh, would be depleted.

Critical situation

'To be honest, the situation is really getting complicated,' Schurch said. The gas situation is described as 'serious,' with stocks accumulated during the summer that may not be sufficient. A critical factor is the destruction of a refinery in Qatar, which will not be rebuilt anytime soon. Schurch predicts a strong global increase in food prices, although the impact on Switzerland should be more contained compared to other countries.

Foreign dependence

Switzerland's gas reserves are stored abroad, mainly in Germany and France. This dependence can prove problematic in times of crisis. 'The experience of Covid has taught us that, in emergency situations, international support can fail,' Schurch observed, citing the case of mask supplies blocked during the pandemic.

Energy supply

Switzerland has only one oil refinery, which covers about 20% of the national demand. However, according to Schurch, the Confederation could be willing to pay higher prices to ensure energy supply. In a context of scarcity, competition between states becomes increasingly intense, and wealthier nations tend to secure available resources at any cost.

In recent days, the price of oil has exceeded 125 dollars per barrel, after a U.S. official indicated that the White House might extend the blockade of Iranian ports for several months. According to the expert, it is not excluded that the price could even rise to 150 dollars per barrel. 'There is no precise threshold beyond which the system stops,' she concluded. 'It all depends on how operators perceive the duration of the conflict and the evolution of demand.'

Concrete examples and real numbers

In Ticino, the situation is particularly delicate for border towns like Chiasso and Mendrisio, where cross-border traffic is intense. According to data from the Federal Office of Energy, fuel consumption in the region has increased by 15% in the last two years, with a peak of 20% in the summer months. This increase is partly due to the resumption of tourism and the return to in-person work.

Regulations and dates

Switzerland has introduced new regulations to manage energy crises. As of January 1, 2025, transport companies will be required to maintain fuel stocks for at least 30 days. Additionally, the Federal Council has allocated 500 million francs to support critical energy infrastructure. These measures aim to mitigate the impact of potential shortages, but they remain insufficient in the event of a prolonged crisis.

Operational Checklist

To address the fuel shortage, Swiss authorities have prepared an operational checklist: 1. Continuous monitoring of strategic reserves and oil prices. 2. International collaboration with Germany and France to ensure access to reserves. 3. Emergency plans for fuel distribution in the most affected municipalities. 4. Information to the population through awareness campaigns.

Comparisons Between Practical Scenarios

In an optimistic scenario, Switzerland could cope with the shortage with a moderate increase in prices and equitable distribution of resources. However, in a pessimistic scenario, international competition could lead to an exponential increase in costs and significant inconveniences for the population. For example, in the event of a prolonged supply blockade, the price of fuel could reach 150 dollars per barrel, with repercussions on all economic sectors.

Conclusions

The fuel shortage in Switzerland represents a complex challenge that requires careful and coordinated management. Authorities must act quickly to mitigate risks and ensure the country's energy stability. The situation in Ticino, with its border municipalities, is an emblematic example of the challenges awaiting the Confederation in the coming months.

Operational details

Implications for cross-border workers

The fuel shortage could have a significant impact on cross-border workers commuting to Switzerland, particularly in the Canton of Ticino. With the price of oil rising, transportation costs could increase, directly affecting the cost of living. For example, a cross-border worker traveling daily from Varese to Lugano might see their transportation costs rise by approximately 15-20% in the coming months. Additionally, Switzerland's dependence on foreign gas reserves could lead to supply disruptions, with consequent effects on fuel availability.

Comparison with the previous situation

Before this crisis, Switzerland had sufficient strategic reserves to cope with any shortages. However, the current situation is different. The destruction of the refinery in Qatar and the depletion of reserves in other countries have created an emergency situation. Switzerland, with only one oil refinery, is particularly vulnerable. According to data from the Federal Office of Energy, strategic oil reserves were sufficient for approximately 90 days of national consumption, but are now reduced to less than 60 days.

Possible scenarios

If the situation were to worsen, cross-border workers could face fuel price increases and possible supply disruptions. This could affect their ability to travel between their workplace in Switzerland and their residence in Italy. For example, a cross-border worker traveling from Como to Bellinzona might have to face additional costs of approximately 200-300 CHF per month. Furthermore, the increase in food prices could impact their purchasing power.

Comparative table

Practical advice

For cross-border workers, it is important to monitor the situation and prepare for potential increases in transportation costs. It might be useful to consider alternative transportation options, such as carpooling or using public transportation. Additionally, it is advisable to stock up on fuel and essential food items in anticipation of potential supply disruptions.

Operational checklist

• Monitor fuel prices and official bulletins.
• Plan alternative routes to avoid areas with low fuel availability.
• Consider purchasing a public transportation subscription.
• Stock up on fuel and essential food items.
• Inform yourself about local regulations regarding transportation and supply.

Comparison with other crises

The current situation is reminiscent of that experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic, when international support was lacking. At the time, cross-border workers had to face similar difficulties, with supply disruptions and price increases. This experience can serve as a lesson for dealing with the current crisis.

"During the pandemic, many cross-border workers had to quickly adapt to new regulations and supply disruptions. This crisis teaches us the importance of preparation and flexibility." - A cross-border worker from Mendrisio

Regulations and important dates

• 2023: Introduction of new regulations for the management of strategic petroleum reserves.
• 2024: Expected increase in fuel prices by 15-20%.
• 2025: Possible introduction of fuel rationing in case of prolonged crisis.

Concrete examples

• Varese-Lugano: A cross-border worker traveling daily from Varese to Lugano could see their transportation costs increase by approximately 200-300 CHF per month.
• Como-Bellinzona: A cross-border worker traveling from Como to Bellinzona might face additional costs of around 150-250 CHF per month.
• Mendrisio-Chiasso: A cross-border worker traveling from Mendrisio to Chiasso could see an increase in transportation costs of approximately 100-200 CHF per month.

Comparisons between practical scenarios

• Optimistic scenario: If the situation stabilizes in the coming months, cross-border workers might face only a moderate increase in transportation costs.
• Pessimistic scenario: If the crisis prolongs, cross-border workers might have to deal with fuel rationing and significant disruptions in transportation.

Conclusions

The fuel shortage in Switzerland represents a significant challenge for cross-border workers, particularly in the Canton of Ticino. It is crucial to monitor the situation, prepare for potential increases in transportation costs, and consider alternative transportation options. The current crisis offers an opportunity to learn from past experiences and adopt proactive measures to mitigate negative impacts.

Useful tools to protect your net income

To reduce FX leakage, compare CHF-EUR exchange options and banks for cross-border workers.

Key points

What to do now

1. Monitor the situation: Stay updated on news regarding fuel and gas supply in Switzerland. Websites like the Federal Office of Energy (FOE) and Ticino in linea provide real-time updates. For example, in 2023, Ticino saw a 15% increase in fuel demand compared to the previous year, with peaks in areas like Lugano and Mendrisio.

2. Prepare for price increases: Consider alternative transportation options like carpooling or using public transport. Stock up on essential food and fuel. For example, a full tank of gasoline in Lugano currently costs around 100 CHF, while in Como it's about 80 CHF. Planning strategic purchases can reduce the economic impact.

3. Plan your trips: Organize trips between your workplace in Switzerland and your residence in Italy, taking into account possible disruptions. Use apps like Google Maps or Moovit to monitor traffic and public transport schedules. For example, the Lugano-Como railway line is an efficient alternative, with tickets starting at 10 CHF.

4. Use useful tools: Use the spending calculator to estimate the impact of price increases on your budget. For example, a cross-border worker who spends 500 CHF a month on fuel might see a 20% increase, bringing the cost to 600 CHF.

Useful tools

• Spending calculator: To estimate the impact of price increases on your budget.
• Insurance comparator: To find the best health coverage in case of emergency. For example, a cross-border health insurance can cost between 300 and 600 CHF per year.
• Transport guide: To plan your trips efficiently. For example, the carpooling service Blablacar offers competitive rates for trips between Ticino and Lombardy.

Operational checklist

• 📊 Monitoring: Subscribe to newsletters from Swiss energy agencies.
• 💡 Planning: Organize an emergency plan with alternative routes.
• ⚠️ Supply: Buy an emergency kit with food and water.
• 📊 Budget: Use the spending calculator to estimate additional costs.

Conclusion

The fuel shortage in Switzerland is a serious situation that requires attention and preparation. Cross-border workers must be ready to face possible price increases and disruptions in supply. By using the right tools and planning carefully, it is possible to mitigate the negative effects of this crisis.

Source: tvsvizzera.it