Referendum: Neutralise 2026 estimates and middle class

Context

In brief

• Vote of 14 June 2026 on the neutralisation of real estate estimates.
• Protection of the middle class: savings of up to CHF 2,000/year for households in Lugano.
• Tax realignment: 2024 estimate values are 30-40% higher than market prices in municipalities such as Mendrisio or Bellinzona.

Key Facts

• What: Referendum to block the automatic update of estimate values (legal basis: Art. 12 LFI, 2023).
• When: 14 June 2026 (deadline for filing: 14.12.2025).
• Where: Canton of Ticino (e.g. in Massagno, +35% estimates 2024 vs 2020).
• Who: Taxpayers with property (e.g. villa in Porza: tax value 1.2M CHF vs real value 900K CHF).
• Impact: Increase in property tax 0.5-1‰ (municipalities such as Chiasso), health insurance premiums +10-15% for income thresholds exceeded.

On June 14, 2026, the people of Ticino will vote to stop the increase in real estate estimates, which in 2024 has already led to price increases of 30-40% in municipalities such as Mendrisio or Giubiasco. In Lugano, a family with an income of 120K CHF and an estimated property of 1M CHF (real value 750K CHF) now pays 1,800 CHF more in annual taxes than in 2020.

The paradox of the middle class The increase in estimates directly affects:

• Real estate tax: in Bellinzona, a house with an estimate of 800K CHF (market value 600K CHF) generates an additional 800 CHF/year (1‰ rate).
• Health insurance premiums: if the threshold of CHF 100K of taxable income (including property valuation) is exceeded, a couple in Locarno loses the 20% reduction (savings: CHF 1,200/year).
• Scholarships: in Minusio, a household with a gross income of 90K CHF and an estimated property of 500K CHF exceeds the ISEE threshold, losing 3K CHF/year in contributions.

📊 Scenario comparison (Lugano, property 700K CHF): - 2020: estimate 500K CHF → tax 500 CHF + health insurance premium 400 CHF/month. - 2026 (without neutralization): estimate 700K CHF → set 700 CHF + premium 460 CHF/month.

💡 Operational checklist: - Check the 2024 estimate of your property (available on TI tax portal). - Calculate the impact with the Canton's simulator (updated May 2025). - Check the thresholds for health insurance premium reductions (e.g. in Canobbio: limit 95K CHF taxable income).

Neutralization would block these increases, keeping estimates at the 2020 level. Objective: to prevent 20K CHF of extra tax value (but not real) from costing 2K CHF/year in taxes and loss of aid.

Operational details

The home as an investment and stability

Another key point of the article concerns the family home. It is often portrayed as a luxury, but for many, it is the result of years of work, sacrifices, and compromises. It represents stability, security, and rootedness. However, from a tax perspective, the primary residence continues to be treated as a source of income, even though it is not.

With the 2026 valuation increases (up to +40% in municipalities like Lugano or Mendrisio), this asset risks becoming an even heavier burden. For a home valued at 1 million francs in 2020, the wealth tax in Ticino (0.8‰-1.5‰) could rise from CHF 800-1,500 to CHF 1,120-2,100 per year. This creates a chain reaction: higher taxable value means higher municipal taxes (e.g., in Bellinzona, the rate is 1.2‰), leading to increasing tax pressure.

📊 Practical comparisons:

• 2020: home worth CHF 800,000 → tax of CHF 640-1,200
• 2026: same home worth CHF 1,120,000 → tax of CHF 896-1,680

It is important to note that a home is an asset already financed with taxed income. Continuing to impose additional taxes on it fuels a sense of injustice, undermining trust in the system.

Sustainability of the tax system

Supporting the neutralisation of valuations by voting Yes to the Initiative 'Yes to neutralising the increase in property valuations' (14 June) means protecting those who have built stability over time. In Lugano, for example, the average valuation increase (+30%) would result in an extra CHF 300-600 per year for a home worth 1 million francs.

This is not about dismantling solidarity but about making it sustainable. A tax system works when it is fair and aligned with reality.

💡 Operational checklist for voters:

• Check the 2026 valuation of your home (available on the cantonal tax portal).
• Calculate the impact using your municipality's tax rate (e.g., Chiasso: 1‰, Locarno: 1.3‰).
• Compare with the current scenario.

⚠️ The vote on 14 June is not a technical decision but a choice between a system that risks drifting away from reality and one that seeks to realign with the concrete lives of people.

Useful tools to protect your net income

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Key points

Action and Deadlines

For residents of Canton Ticino, particularly cross-border workers and middle-class families, the vote on 14 June 2026 represents a true turning point. It is a choice between a tax burden that continues to grow and the need to restore a balance that has been lost, especially to preserve purchasing power.

Neutralising property valuations is the key to preventing the theoretical value of a property from becoming a fiscal burden. It means making the system more understandable and aligned with real life. If the vote goes against this direction, there is a risk of further increases in wealth taxes and overall pressure on families.

To understand the concrete impact of valuations on your household budget, it is essential to analyse the taxable base and the fiscal value of your home. An accurate calculation can help determine whether you are in a situation of being "too rich for assistance but not rich enough to live without difficulty".

Using calculation tools to simulate the impact of valuations on taxes and health insurance premiums is a crucial step in making an informed decision. Neutralising valuations is the only way to ensure that the tax system reflects the economic reality of citizens, not market distortions or theoretical values.

Source: tio.ch