What percentage of SMEs reduced orders in the first half of 2026?

64.18% of SMEs reported shrinking or unchanged orders, with only 35.82% growing. In the context of the province of Varese, where many border workers work, this implies less demand for products/services and a greater risk of revisions to workloads and hours worked.

What is the impact of the crisis in the Middle East on cross-border workers' wages?

69.47% of SMEs believe that a worsening of the crisis could affect profitability. Already 76.19% report increases in raw material costs and 72.55% in logistics costs. Lower margins can translate into lower wage increases, blocking career progression, or reducing working hours.

What should border workers know about the use of social safety nets?

16.71% of SMEs expect to use social safety nets in the second half of 2026. If your employer activates redundancy fund (CIGO/CIGS), your salary is reduced but supplemented by INPS. This affects the tax credit you can recover in Italy (EC framework of 730) and the Swiss tax return, so it is essential to notify your accountant.

Will artificial intelligence increase job opportunities in the province of Varese?

Yes, 23.28% of SMEs plan to invest in AI (43.75% if intangible investments alone are considered), with a focus on process optimisation (90.16%) and data management (81.97%). Frontier workers with IT, automation or data management skills will have a higher propensity for employment than traditional roles.

How can I check the economic health of my company?

Monitor the signals from the Confapi report: reduction in orders (64.18% report contraction), credit difficulties (66.46% do not ask for new financing), postponement of investments (51.67% did not invest in the first half of the year). If your company shows more than one of these signs, it is prudent to update your job search profile as a precaution.

Confapi: difficult credit blocks investments in SMEs North (cross-border guide)

Di Redazione Frontaliere Ticino · Published on 1 September 2026

Industrial area in Mendrisio at the border with Varese province, Ticino

Confapi report on 2,000 SMEs: 60% in difficulty due to geopolitics and credit. Direct impact on employment and wages of Varese-Ticino cross-border workers.

Context

In brief

First half of 2026: Northern Italy SMEs in difficulty due to geopolitics and credit
60% of production decreased or stable; turnover stopped for 60% (32.54% down)
Exports up from 55% (2025) to 58.3% (H1 2026), but 51.67% SMEs do not invest

Key Facts

What: Confapi presents Economic Report on Italian SMEs
When: August 28, 2026, first half of 2026
Where: Rome (sample 2,000 companies, 47.18% North West - Varese area)
Who: President Cristian Camisa, director of Confapi Varese Piero Baggi
Main risks: Geopolitical tensions, difficult credit, technological transformations

The Confapi Economic Report presented on 28 August 2026 in Rome paints a picture of acute economic tension for Italian small and medium-sized enterprises. The survey involved 2,000 member companies distributed throughout the country: 47.18% in the North West (the province of Varese is part of this area), 28.21% in the North East and 24.61% between the Centre and South Islands.

Piero Baggi, general manager of Confapi Varese, summed up the climate in a post on LinkedIn: the current phase is one of "complex uncertainty". Geopolitical tensions, sudden technological transformations and growing difficulties in accessing credit are putting a strain on the sector, curbing the propensity to invest and growth on international markets.

For cross-border workers working in SMEs in Varese and Lombardy, this means real risks: companies that do not invest do not hire, companies in credit difficulties compress wages, reduce hours, risk resorting to redundancies, reduce career progression prospects.

Production, orders, turnover: the first half of the year slows down

The data for the first half of 2026 show a widespread contraction:

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Operational details

Blocked investments: half of SMEs give up

A worrying figure emerges from the investment front. 48.33% of SMEs made investments in the first half of the year, but 51.67% did not make any. Among those who invested, tangible investments prevailed (70.11%, especially machinery and plants) over intangible investments (45.98%, driven by training, artificial intelligence and research and development).

On Transition 5.0, interest remains limited: only 8.3% of companies have made investments in this area, while 91.7% have done nothing. The main obstacles reported by companies are: investments already planned but postponed due to the economic context (19.46%), companies that are already efficient (20.81%) and excessive bureaucracy in the presentation of projects (15.38%).

Renewable energy is also struggling to take off: only 5.6% of companies invested in this area in the first half of the year, with a clear preference for self-consumption plants (93.33%). This immobility on investments has direct repercussions on cross-border commuters: SMEs that do not grow do not open new positions, do not look for new talent, risk blocking career progression and wage increases.

Difficult credit: forced self-financing

Credit has become a serious obstacle. Two out of three companies (66.46%) did not apply for new financing in the half-year. 56.33% resorted to self-financing, a share up 10% compared to 2025, in the face of rising banking costs.

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Key points

Expectations for the second half of the year: prudence prevails

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the mood remains cautious. 33.15% of companies expect the market to contract, 28.93% see it as stable, while only 28% see growth, mostly moderate.

Consistently, production, turnover and expected orders are given as stable or declining by 76%, 73% and 71% of SMEs respectively. On the employment front, wait-and-see prevails: 71.62% of companies will leave their workforce unchanged, while 16.71% expect to have to resort to social safety nets. This figure is critical for those who work in cross-border workers: the use of shock absorbers (redundancy fund, CIGO, CIGS) reduces the salary received and has direct implications on the tax credit that the cross-border worker can recover in Italy (EC framework of 730) and on the Swiss tax return.

For investments expected in the second half of the year, 30.9% of SMEs plan to invest. The priorities remain the purchase of new plant and machinery (63.6%), followed by skills strengthening (23.8%) and digital transition (22.7%).

Artificial intelligence and geopolitical shock

The adoption of AI is growing. 23.28% of companies plan to invest in this area (a percentage that rises to 43.75% if we consider only intangible investments). The main purposes are the optimization of production processes (90.16%) and the enhancement of data processing and management capabilities (81.97%). For cross-border commuters with IT, automation or data management skills, this represents a concrete opportunity for professional retraining.

On the US tariff front, the impact remains limited: 87.5% of companies say they have not experienced significant effects, although 48.21% report an increase in the costs of imported raw materials.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What percentage of SMEs reduced orders in the first half of 2026?: 64.18% of SMEs reported shrinking or unchanged orders, with only 35.82% growing. In the context of the province of Varese, where many border workers work, this implies less demand for products/services and a greater risk of revisions to workloads and hours worked.
What is the impact of the crisis in the Middle East on cross-border workers' wages?: 69.47% of SMEs believe that a worsening of the crisis could affect profitability. Already 76.19% report increases in raw material costs and 72.55% in logistics costs. Lower margins can translate into lower wage increases, blocking career progression, or reducing working hours.
What should border workers know about the use of social safety nets?: 16.71% of SMEs expect to use social safety nets in the second half of 2026. If your employer activates redundancy fund (CIGO/CIGS), your salary is reduced but supplemented by INPS. This affects the tax credit you can recover in Italy (EC framework of 730) and the Swiss tax return, so it is essential to notify your accountant.
Will artificial intelligence increase job opportunities in the province of Varese?: Yes, 23.28% of SMEs plan to invest in AI (43.75% if intangible investments alone are considered), with a focus on process optimisation (90.16%) and data management (81.97%). Frontier workers with IT, automation or data management skills will have a higher propensity for employment than traditional roles.
How can I check the economic health of my company?: Monitor the signals from the Confapi report: reduction in orders (64.18% report contraction), credit difficulties (66.46% do not ask for new financing), postponement of investments (51.67% did not invest in the first half of the year). If your company shows more than one of these signs, it is prudent to update your job search profile as a precaution.