Confapi: difficult credit blocks investments in SMEs North

Context

In brief

• First half of 2026: Northern Italy SMEs in difficulty due to geopolitics and credit
• 60% of production decreased or stable; turnover stopped for 60% (32.54% down)
• Exports up from 55% (2025) to 58.3% (H1 2026), but 51.67% SMEs do not invest

Key Facts

• What: Confapi presents Economic Report on Italian SMEs
• When: August 28, 2026, first half of 2026
• Where: Rome (sample 2,000 companies, 47.18% North West - Varese area)
• Who: President Cristian Camisa, director of Confapi Varese Piero Baggi
• Main risks: Geopolitical tensions, difficult credit, technological transformations

The Confapi Economic Report presented on 28 August 2026 in Rome paints a picture of acute economic tension for Italian small and medium-sized enterprises. The survey involved 2,000 member companies distributed throughout the country: 47.18% in the North West (the province of Varese is part of this area), 28.21% in the North East and 24.61% between the Centre and South Islands.

Piero Baggi, general manager of Confapi Varese, summed up the climate in a post on LinkedIn: the current phase is one of "complex uncertainty". Geopolitical tensions, sudden technological transformations and growing difficulties in accessing credit are putting a strain on the sector, curbing the propensity to invest and growth on international markets.

For cross-border workers working in SMEs in Varese and Lombardy, this means real risks: companies that do not invest do not hire, companies in credit difficulties compress wages, reduce hours, risk resorting to redundancies, reduce career progression prospects.

Production, orders, turnover: the first half of the year slows down

The data for the first half of 2026 show a widespread contraction:

• Production: decreased or stable for 60.89% of companies, increasing for 39.11%.
• Orders: down or unchanged for 64.18% of SMEs, up for 35.82%.
• Turnover: decreased or stable for 60% of companies (32.54% down, 28.05% stable). Only 39.41% recorded an increase, mostly contained between 1% and 10%.

A positive note comes from internationalization. The propensity to export rose from 55% in 2025 to 58.3% in the first half of 2026, thanks to the accompanying activity carried out by Confapi in synergy with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, SACE, Simest CDP and ICE. However, 41.7% of companies continue not to export, a sign of unexpressed potential.

Operational details

Blocked investments: half of SMEs give up

A worrying figure emerges from the investment front. 48.33% of SMEs made investments in the first half of the year, but 51.67% did not make any. Among those who invested, tangible investments prevailed (70.11%, especially machinery and plants) over intangible investments (45.98%, driven by training, artificial intelligence and research and development).

On Transition 5.0, interest remains limited: only 8.3% of companies have made investments in this area, while 91.7% have done nothing. The main obstacles reported by companies are: investments already planned but postponed due to the economic context (19.46%), companies that are already efficient (20.81%) and excessive bureaucracy in the presentation of projects (15.38%).

Renewable energy is also struggling to take off: only 5.6% of companies invested in this area in the first half of the year, with a clear preference for self-consumption plants (93.33%). This immobility on investments has direct repercussions on cross-border commuters: SMEs that do not grow do not open new positions, do not look for new talent, risk blocking career progression and wage increases.

Difficult credit: forced self-financing

Credit has become a serious obstacle. Two out of three companies (66.46%) did not apply for new financing in the half-year. 56.33% resorted to self-financing, a share up 10% compared to 2025, in the face of rising banking costs.

The reasons why SMEs do not turn to banks are significant: 34.62% fear a negative assessment of their economic situation, while 30.77% consider interest rates too high. For employed cross-border commuters, this situation is critical: a company that does not access credit is a company in liquidity difficulty, with risks of late payroll, reduction of hours, recourse to redundancy funds.

Occupancy: surface tightness, compressed margins

On the employment front, the numbers seem reassuring. 68.04% of companies have not changed their workforce, 22.04% have expanded it and 9.92% have reduced it. But there is the flip side: 63.56% of companies have recorded an increase in personnel costs, yet for 69.93% this increase has not been offset by an equal increase in productivity.

In other words: reduced revenues, stable or higher wage costs, increasingly compressed margins. This picture directly exposes cross-border workers to the risk of relative wage compression (blocked increases), less willingness to hire new hires, blocking of contract renewals. It should be noted that 43.8% of companies declare that they have employees with disabilities in their workforce.

Recommended tools

For an updated estimate, use the net salary calculator and the CHF-EUR exchange comparator.

Key points

Expectations for the second half of the year: prudence prevails

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the mood remains cautious. 33.15% of companies expect the market to contract, 28.93% see it as stable, while only 28% see growth, mostly moderate.

Consistently, production, turnover and expected orders are given as stable or declining by 76%, 73% and 71% of SMEs respectively. On the employment front, wait-and-see prevails: 71.62% of companies will leave their workforce unchanged, while 16.71% expect to have to resort to social safety nets. This figure is critical for those who work in cross-border workers: the use of shock absorbers (redundancy fund, CIGO, CIGS) reduces the salary received and has direct implications on the tax credit that the cross-border worker can recover in Italy (EC framework of 730) and on the Swiss tax return.

For investments expected in the second half of the year, 30.9% of SMEs plan to invest. The priorities remain the purchase of new plant and machinery (63.6%), followed by skills strengthening (23.8%) and digital transition (22.7%).

Artificial intelligence and geopolitical shock

The adoption of AI is growing. 23.28% of companies plan to invest in this area (a percentage that rises to 43.75% if we consider only intangible investments). The main purposes are the optimization of production processes (90.16%) and the enhancement of data processing and management capabilities (81.97%). For cross-border commuters with IT, automation or data management skills, this represents a concrete opportunity for professional retraining.

On the US tariff front, the impact remains limited: 87.5% of companies say they have not experienced significant effects, although 48.21% report an increase in the costs of imported raw materials.

The effect of the crisis in the Middle East is more significant. 69.47% of companies believe that a worsening of the situation could have repercussions on company profitability, and more than half have already recorded a negative impact: 76.19% due to the increase in raw material costs and 72.55% due to logistics costs. About 60% of companies estimate that the effect on turnover may remain contained within 6%, but even a 6% reduction on already compressed margins can mean missed hiring or salary reductions.

What to do as a cross-border commuter: concrete strategies

Confapi statistics describe a scenario in which prudence is the watchword. For cross-border workers working in the province of Varese and in border Lombardy, the imperative is to monitor the health of their company and plan alternatives.

Recommended actions:

1. Update your professional profile: The job search could intensify if companies resort to staff reductions (9.92% have already done so in the first half of the year). Register on Ticino job matching platforms to reduce employment transition times.

2. Diversify skills towards high-demand areas: 23.28% of SMEs invest in AI, 23.8% in training, 22.7% in digital transition. If you work in traditional areas, consider reskilling courses towards these sectors with greater prospects.

3. Know the social safety net available: If your company reports credit difficulties or declining orders, check the redundancy fund coverage (CIGO/CIGS in Italy) to which your company adheres. 16.71% of the sample plans to use it in the second half of the year. Knowing how wage subsidies work allows you to plan your family budget.

4. Consult an accountant for the 2026 tax framework: If your employer suffers wage changes, redundancy funds or changes in hours, the impact on the tax credit (EC framework of 730) and family allowances in Switzerland can be significant. Early advice avoids surprises in the declaration.

5. Monitor Confapi's economic data: Confapi's report is updated regularly. Following the production, orders and turnover indicators of Varese SMEs provides you with an indicator that anticipates business decisions.

To monitor job opportunities in the border area, consulta gli annunci di lavoro su Frontaliere Ticino. If you are evaluating the effects of salary changes on your net, layoff, or time change, usa il calcolatore di busta paga to simulate different scenarios and understand what the real effect is on your Swiss taxes and on the Italian tax credit.

Evaluating a Ticino job offer? Simulate your net payslip: enter gross salary, marital status and municipality for a detailed breakdown.

Source: varesenews.it