SNB leaves rate at 0% and raises GDP 2026

Context

TL;DR

• The SNB keeps the guide rate at 0%
• Inflation remains in the range between 0% and 2%
• GDP 2026 is estimated between 1.5% and 2.0%
• Expected inflation: 0.7% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027

Key facts

• Decision → reference rate at 0%
• Effective date → level unchanged from June 2025
• Price target → inflation between 0% and 2%
• GDP 2026 → between 1.5% and 2.0%, compared to around 1% in mid-June
• GDP 2027 → growth around 1.5%
• Inflation → 0.7% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027

On Thursday 24 September 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to maintain the reference rate at 0%, the level at which it has stood since June 2025. The reason given is inflation in the Confederation which remains under control.

In the statement, the central bank added that, if necessary, it is willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market to ensure adequate monetary conditions. The warning does not announce an intervention: it does however signal that the exchange rate remains an observed variable. For a Ticino-Italy cross-border worker, the concrete link in the news therefore lies in the relationship between the franc and the currency used across the border, without the source quantifying a change. To follow this aspect you can consult CHF/EUR comparator.

Unlike the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), which recently increased their reference rates, the Swiss central bank has chosen the monetary status quo.

The SNB notes a slight acceleration in inflation, due to the surge in oil prices. Despite this movement, he believes monetary policy is adequate to keep inflation within the price stability range and support economic activity. The goal is to keep inflation between 0% and 2%.

The new forecasts for Switzerland

On Thursday, during the quarterly analysis of the country's economic and monetary situation, the SNB significantly revised its gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for the current year upwards. It now indicates a range between 1.5% and 2.0%, compared to around 1% estimated in mid-June. The growth of the Swiss economy should then amount to more or less 1.5% in 2027.

Inflation projections have been revised upwards by approximately ten basis points: 0.7% for the current year and 0.8% for the following year. The institute attributes the correction to the stronger-than-expected increase in prices of petroleum products. For 2028 it expects stabilization at this level.

The estimates, however, remain conditional on maintaining a reference rate of zero for the entire period considered. Finally, the central bank reports that the context of commercial policy and the trend of exchange rates remain factors of uncertainty.

Operational details

What changes, and what doesn't, for the cross-border worker

For the cross-border worker, the press release must be read distinguishing the decision already taken from the eventuality left open. The decision is to maintain the reference rate; the eventuality is a possible intervention on the exchange market, subject to the need to guarantee adequate monetary conditions. The source does not communicate an intervention that has already been carried out, nor does it offer a value of the franc compared to a specific currency.

The change remains an indicator, not a new rule

This also limits conclusions about everyday life. A possible movement in the exchange rate could make the conversion of money different for those crossing the border, but the text does not say in which direction the franc will move and does not quantify the benefits or costs. For this reason, the CHF/EUR comparator can be used to observe the current data, while the BNS news is used to understand which factors the central bank considers. We must not transform the willingness to intervene into a certain prediction.

The scope of the news remains monetary. It therefore offers no elements to describe a new tax agreement, nor to modify tax, social security or border procedures based on this decision alone.

The GDP update can be read as a more favorable assessment of the Swiss economy for 2026, but the source does not link that revision to new hires, higher wages or changes in the cross-border job market. Similarly, oil-related inflation explains the revision of projections, but does not alone determine the concrete cost of each family. Those who live between Switzerland and Italy can therefore use the press release as a signal to follow, keeping official data separate from personal hypotheses. To compare your expenses, cost of living in Ticino vs Italy is also available.

Useful tools for your case

To conveniently check your scenario within/beyond 20 km, use the net salary calculator and tax return guide.

Key points

How to follow the decision

The press release does not introduce forms, applications or deadlines for border workers. The useful action is to record the official data and check the exchange rate without attributing unannounced effects to the decision. A simple procedure helps to separate what the SNB has decided from the eventualities it has only left open.

1. Write down the starting date. On 24 September 2026, the SNB confirmed the reference rate at 0%, unchanged from June 2025. This is the official starting point to read the next updates.

2. Isolate condition on gearboxes. The SNB declares that it is willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary. The wording describes a possibility subject to monetary conditions, not an intervention already carried out. Therefore, avoid considering a change in the franc as automatic.

3. Record forecasts separately. For 2026, the central bank indicates GDP growth between 1.5% and 2.0%, compared to about 1% estimated in mid-June. For inflation, it forecasts 0.7% in the current year and 0.8% in the following year, with stabilisation in 2028. They are projections of the SNB, not a personal forecast of income.

4. Compare the change with an updated figure. The source does not provide a CHF/EUR quote nor does it calculate gains or losses for the single border crossing. Then use the CHF/EUR comparator for actual conversion and keep the market figure separate from the lead rate decision.

5. Do not extend the news to other areas. No procedure on these issues can be derived from monetary communication alone.

To translate these scenarios into your personal situation, use the salary calculator.

Source: rsi.ch