Swiss companies, half-year results beyond estimates (cross-border guide)

Context

In a nutshell

• In the first half of the year, 24 out of 30 SLI companies exceeded market estimates
• Logitech beat operating profit forecasts by 39%
• Investments in artificial intelligence main drivers of growth
• Revised 2026 profit estimates up 18%

Key facts

• What: Financial results for Swiss companies in the first half exceed market expectations
• When: First semester
• Where: Swiss Stock Exchange, SLI index (30 listed companies)
• Who: 24 companies above estimates, 4 below forecasts
• Logitech Performance: Operating profit +39% compared to estimates
• Givaudan Performance: Net profit -12% compared to estimates
• ABB performance: Net profit -7% compared to estimates

Twenty-four large Swiss companies out of thirty surprisingly exceeded market expectations in the first half, demonstrating a financial solidity that analysts had not fully anticipated. According to Keystone-ATS, this performance comes despite a complicated geopolitical context: war in the Middle East, rising oil prices, US tariffs and a particularly strong Swiss franc on international markets.

Bettina Baur, manager of the private bank UBP, points out that "the results shown by companies in the first half are clearly above average and the magnitude of the surprises was remarkable". Among the most egregious successes, the luxury giant Richemont has doubled its sales growth compared to analysts' forecasts.

Operational details

Stock market volatility and its impact on investors

The stock market reaction has been particularly lively. Stocks have seen significant fluctuations of up to 10% more or less on the day of the publication of the reports. Gauthier explains that "the concentration in the publication of corporate information is very, very high, which causes excessive reactions from the market." On some days, ten companies simultaneously released their results, putting the investors' ability to process information to the test.

The high volatility is also fueled by the behavior of small speculators. Many take leveraged positions and close them at the first significant deviation from expectations. "Moreover, many speculators follow the trend, take leveraged positions, and at the slightest deviation from expectations, the positions are adjusted: this is what creates this incredible volatility, even on large-cap stocks," explains the expert.

For those who own stocks or funds in Switzerland (including pension funds LPP/BVG), this means that the value of the portfolio can fluctuate significantly in a few days. However, the overall context remains generally positive. Baur observes a "recovery of quality stocks, which were previously under strong pressure."

Outlook for 2026 and beyond

The prospects for the second half of 2026 remain solid. According to Gauthier, "industrial companies should continue to report solid results in the second half of the year, as demand remains very strong despite inflation and rising interest rates." However, a change is already on the horizon: starting in early 2027, there could be a slowdown.

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Key points

What to do as a saver or investor in Switzerland

If you own shares in Swiss companies or if your pension fund is invested in Swiss equities, it is important to understand that the macroeconomic framework remains favorable. However, stock market volatility requires awareness and planning.

Step 1: Assess your exposure to Swiss companies. If you have a pension fund managed by a Swiss bank or insurance company, most of it is probably exposed to SMI/SLI index stocks. Ask your manager what percentage of the portfolio is invested in Swiss stocks and what in bonds or foreign assets.

Step 2: Understand the mix of your allocation. For those who are young (more than 10 years from retirement), an exposure of 60-70% in equities may be appropriate; for those approaching retirement, it may be reduced to 30-40%. Review your LPP/BVG account statement to verify the strategic allocation and management costs.

Step 3: Do not react emotionally to daily volatility. Variations of 10% are normal in weeks of results publication, but they represent short-term movements. If your plan is long-term (retirement in 10 or more years), it is not advisable to sell to fix losses during temporary declines. History shows that diversified portfolios recover during economic cycles.

Step 4: Monitor the evolution for 2027. Given that analysts predict a possible slowdown starting in January 2027, it is reasonable to start thinking about a possible portfolio rebalancing a few months before. Consult your financial advisor or your bank to discuss investment management strategies.

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