Crude oil: Middle Eastern exports at pre-war levels

Context

In brief

• Middle Eastern exports above pre-conflict average of 18 million b/d
• Hormuz: previously a fifth of global hydrocarbons passed through
• December Brent at $101.44; November WTI at $90.02
• Saudi Arabia and UAE have alternative pipelines

Key facts

• Data source → Kpler
• Pre-conflict average → 18 million barrels per day
• Strategic passage → Strait of Hormuz
• Saudi alternative → East-West pipeline to Yanbu
• UAE alternative → pipeline to Fujairah
• Brent, December delivery → $101.44, -0.79%
• WTI, November delivery → $90.02, -1.20%
• Quote time → Monday at 5:10 AM, Swiss time

Last week, crude exports from Middle Eastern countries, excluding Iran, surpassed the pre-war level in the region. This is indicated by data from Kpler, a maritime monitoring company. For several consecutive days, the weekly average of shipments exceeded 18 million barrels per day, the average recorded before the conflict.

The figure comes after the launch, in late February, of raids by the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic. The count also includes flows passing through the Red Sea, a route used to circumvent the blockade that Iran is attempting to impose on the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, a fifth of the world's consumed hydrocarbons transited through Hormuz.

Hormuz and alternative routes

Iran now requires its own authorization for ships wishing to cross the strait. Those that do not comply are exposed to near-daily attacks. The source links this authorization to the risk to ships, while oil traffic also uses different routes.

Tankers leaving the Gulf under U.S. escort are more numerous, and this allows a recovery in volumes. However, the rebound is not solely linked to Hormuz: the text also notes the full operation of alternative routes.

For Saudi Arabia, the main lever is the reactivation of the East-West pipeline. The pipeline connects the main eastern oil fields to the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea, on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. It had been closed on September 11 after raids launched by Iraq.

The United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, have a pipeline that terminates at the Fujairah terminal, located outside the strait. At 5:10 AM Monday, Swiss time, North Sea Brent for December delivery fell 0.79% to $101.44 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, for November delivery, fell 1.20% to $90.02.

Quotes are in dollars; the CHF/EUR comparator allows the currency figure to be compared, without attributing Swiss effects to the source that are not indicated.

Operational details

For those living in Switzerland, the figure should be read as an international indicator, not as an announced local measure. The source provides three distinct elements: how many barrels were shipped, which routes were used and how two prices moved. Separating them avoids attributing to the recovery in volumes an effect that the text does not quantify.

The before-and-after comparison

For the first element the comparison is clear: the reference threshold was 18 million barrels a day and, last week, the average exceeded that level for several consecutive days. For the second, however, the return above the threshold does not allow us to say that all traffic has returned to the strait. Flows from the Red Sea are included in the count, while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines that bypass Hormuz.

This changes the reading of the headline: exports above the pre-war level describe the total volume considered by Kpler, not a normalization of every individual passage. The source notes, in fact, that Iran requires authorization and that non-compliant vessels risk attacks; at the same time, tankers under American escort contribute to the increase in shipments.

| Level | Data present | What the source does not provide | | Volumes | Average above 18 million barrels per day | No estimate for individual countries | | Routes | Hormuz, Red Sea, Saudi and Emirati pipelines | No breakdown of volumes | | Prices | December Brent and November WTI | No value expressed in francs |

Prices and data limitations

The third element requires precision. At 5.10 Swiss time the December Brent was at 101,44 dollars after a decline of 0,79%; the November WTI at 90,02 dollars after a decline of 1,20%. These are two prices listed separately, with different delivery months. The source reports the movement but does not establish a causal relationship between the recovery in exports and the change in prices.

The shift from dollars to everyday life in Switzerland is also not quantified in the report: consumer prices, tariffs or local forecasts do not appear. costo della vita in Svizzera can be consulted as a separate tool, but it should not be used to attribute to this text an impact that the text does not measure.

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Key points

An update on the same topic can be read with a simple fact sheet, built solely on the available data. The aim is not to predict the price of oil, but to check whether a new bulletin describes an increase in volumes, a shift in routes or a change in prices.

Five steps to verify the picture

1. Define the scope. The data concerns exports from Middle Eastern countries excluding Iran. It should therefore not be presented as a measure of all global exports.

2. Set the benchmark. Note the threshold of 18 million barrels per day, indicated as the average before the conflict, and check whether the new figure exceeds it for several consecutive days.

3. Map the routes. Separate passage through the Strait of Hormuz from flows through the Red Sea. Also record the Saudi East-West pipeline, the Yanbou terminal and the Emirati pipeline to Fujairah.

4. Record maritime security. Note the request for Iranian authorization, the risk of attacks on non-compliant vessels and the departure from the Gulf of tankers under American escort.

5. Read the prices without mixing them up. Keep the Swiss time of 5.10, the delivery month for Brent and WTI, the percentage decline and the dollar value. The two benchmarks are reported separately by the source.

This checklist is particularly useful for a Swiss reader because the service gives Swiss time and uses dollar prices, but offers neither a conversion nor a local consequence. The reading remains accurate if it compares the figures, describes the routes and stops where the data end. There is no need to fill the gaps with assumptions about pump prices, Swiss families or future prices.

To pair this reading with a personal check of income, use calcolatore stipendio.

Source: rsi.ch