KOF Barometer: modest recovery for Swiss economy

Context

In brief

• KOF Barometer at 97.9 points in April
• Improvement of 2.3 points compared to March
• Economic prospects remain modest

Key facts

• What: KOF Barometer
• When: April 2026
• Where: Switzerland
• Who: KOF Institute of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
• Amount: 97.9 points

The KOF barometer, the business climate indicator of the KOF Institute of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, recorded a slight improvement in April, standing at 97.9 points. This value represents an increase of 2.3 points compared to the March data, revised from 96.1 to 95.6, which was the lowest since mid-2025. Despite the improvement, the parameter remains below the multi-year average of 100 points, indicating modest economic prospects for the Swiss economy.

Sectors in recovery

Indicators from the manufacturing industry, services, and consumer demand contributed to the increase in the index. For example, in the manufacturing sector, the export of machinery and equipment recorded a 3.2% increase compared to March, with a significant increase in exports to the European Union. The services sector also showed signs of recovery, with a 1.8% increase in consulting and IT activities.

However, negative signals come from the hotel and catering sector, with a 2.5% drop in hotel bookings in the Canton of Ticino, particularly in tourist destinations such as Lugano and Locarno. The indices relating to foreign demand, financial and insurance services, as well as construction are virtually unchanged.

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Operational details

Analysis of Economic Prospects

The modest economic prospects signaled by the KOF barometer for 2023, with an index of 98.4 points, have significant implications for cross-border workers employed in Switzerland. With an economy that does not show signs of a robust recovery, it is crucial for cross-border workers to be prepared for potential changes in the labor market and tax policies.

Impact on the Labor Market

A modest economy can translate into a lower demand for labor, especially in the most affected sectors such as hospitality and catering. According to data from the Federal Statistical Office, in 2022 the hospitality and catering sector in Switzerland recorded a contraction of 3.2%, with a significant impact on cross-border workers employed in regions such as Lugano, where tourism represents a substantial part of the local economy.

📊 Relevant Data:

• Lugano: The hospitality and catering sector employs approximately 12,000 cross-border workers, representing 25% of the sector's total workforce.
• Chiasso: About 15% of cross-border workers are employed in seasonal sectors, such as tourism and agriculture.

💡 Operational Checklist for Cross-Border Workers:

• Diversify Skills: Participate in continuing education courses, such as those offered by the Professional Training Center of Lugano.
• Monitor Job Opportunities: Use platforms like Jobs.ch and LinkedIn to find job offers in growing sectors, such as technology and healthcare.
• Networking: Attend local networking events to expand professional opportunities.

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Key points

Concrete actions for cross-border workers

Given the current economic context, it is essential that cross-border workers take concrete measures to protect their financial and professional well-being. Here are some steps they can follow:

1. Monitor the job market: Stay updated on job opportunities available in Switzerland and neighboring regions. Use tools like the salary calculator to compare job offers and make informed decisions. For example, a cross-border worker in Lugano can earn around CHF 6,500 per month, while a colleague in Chiasso might earn CHF 6,200 for the same role.

2. Diversify skills: Invest in continuous training and acquiring new skills to increase competitiveness in the job market. This can include professional update courses or certifications in growing sectors. For example, a Python programming course can cost around CHF 2,000 and can increase job opportunities in the IT sector.

3. Plan finances: Create a financial plan that accounts for potential economic fluctuations. This can include creating an emergency fund, investing in pension plans like the LPP, and managing AVS contributions. For example, an emergency fund should cover at least 3-6 months of living expenses. For a cross-border worker who spends CHF 3,000 per month, this means saving between CHF 9,000 and CHF 18,000.

4. Explore cross-border opportunities: Consider job opportunities both in Switzerland and Italy, taking advantage of tax benefits such as tax refunds and withholding tax. Use tools like the permit comparator to evaluate available options. For example, a cross-border worker in Mendrisio can benefit from a tax refund of up to 30% of gross salary, depending on the municipality of residence in Italy.

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