Initiative 'No to a 10 million Switzerland': sustainable?

Context

In brief

• UDC initiative to limit population to 9.5 million
• Goal: protect the environment
• Experts doubtful about environmental benefits

Key facts

• What: UDC initiative "No to a Switzerland of 10 million!"
• When: Vote on June 14, 2026
• Where: Switzerland
• Who: UDC, Federal Council
• Amount: Population expected to reach 10.3 million by 2050

The initiative "No to a Switzerland of 10 million!" promoted by the UDC aims to contain the Swiss population to protect the environment. The party has linked ecology to overpopulation since its initiative "against mass immigration," approved in 2014. However, a demographic study by the Federal Council published in November 2025 shows that the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 can be achieved even with a Switzerland of 11 million inhabitants. The UDC, however, demands measures as soon as the number of residents reaches 9.5 million.

Implications for cross-border workers

The initiative could have significant repercussions for cross-border workers who work in Switzerland. A potential brake on immigration could limit job opportunities for cross-border workers, especially in sectors such as elderly care and construction, where foreign labor is essential. Furthermore, limiting immigration could affect public services and cantonal finances, with possible repercussions on the quality of life and services for residents, including cross-border workers.

Michel Oris, former professor of demography and history at the University of Geneva, observes that environmental damage is not linked to demographics but rather to inequality in access to resources. The difference lies mainly in choices and consumption habits. As soon as a person adopts a Swiss lifestyle, emissions inevitably increase.

Demographic decline

Oris sees another risk in limiting immigration: the loss of attractiveness of Switzerland in a context of demographic decline. The population of the European continent will decrease by 100 million by the end of the century, according to statisticians, that is, one-fifth of the current population. In Switzerland, more than two children per woman would be needed to counteract this decline. A goal that is far from being achieved today (in 2024, the average number of children per woman was 1.29).

This decrease in birth rates, combined with the aging of the population, will inevitably have repercussions on services and public finances. "If we want to maintain the prosperous and rich Switzerland we know, I don't see how this can be possible without immigration," says Oris.

Immigration as a solution

Other countries, such as Italy, are increasingly relying on immigration to support their economy and services in the face of demographic crisis. China, on the other hand, is betting on robots to compensate for the labor shortage, particularly in elderly care services. However, Etienne Piguet, professor of mobility geography at the University of Neuchâtel, relativizes this vision: if the decline in birth rates were to be truly compensated, immigration would have to be much higher - at least five times higher - than current levels.

Furthermore, people arriving in Switzerland should find employment immediately, thus contributing to the financing of social benefits. "But we know very well that this is not the case today," explains Piguet. "Immigration is not even a magic wand." The specialist deplores the opposing simplifications that characterize the campaign in favor of and against the initiative. "The numerous positive effects of immigration must be taken into consideration. But it must also be possible to recognize that immigration poses some problems."

Operational details

Analysis of Practical Implications

The initiative 'No to a Switzerland of 10 million!' could have various practical implications for cross-border workers and the Swiss economy as a whole. Firstly, a potential brake on immigration could limit job opportunities for cross-border workers, especially in sectors such as elderly care and construction, where foreign labor is essential. This could lead to a labor shortage in key sectors, with possible negative repercussions on the economy.

Comparison with the Previous Situation

Before the 'against mass immigration' initiative of 2014, Switzerland had a more open approach to immigration, which contributed to the country's economic growth and prosperity. However, the approval of this initiative led to a series of restrictions that limited access to the Swiss labor market for cross-border workers. The current initiative could represent a further step in this direction, with possible negative consequences for the economy and public services.

Future Scenarios

If the initiative were approved, it is likely that the Swiss government would introduce new immigration restrictions, which could include annual quotas for cross-border workers. This could lead to a reduction in the number of cross-border workers in Switzerland, with possible negative repercussions on the economy and public services. Furthermore, the limitation of immigration could influence Switzerland's demographics, with a possible aging of the population and a reduction in the workforce.

Implications for Public Services

The limitation of immigration could also have repercussions on public services and cantonal finances. With an aging population and a reduction in the workforce, it could be difficult to maintain the quality of public services and finance social benefits. This could lead to an increase in taxes or a reduction in services, with possible negative repercussions on the quality of life for residents, including cross-border workers.

Conclusions

In conclusion, the initiative 'No to a Switzerland of 10 million!' could have various practical implications for cross-border workers and the Swiss economy. While the goal of protecting the environment is commendable, it is important to also consider the side effects of a potential brake on immigration. A balanced approach that takes into account the economic and demographic needs of the country could be the best solution to ensure the long-term prosperity and sustainability of Switzerland.

Useful tools to protect your net income

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Key points

What to do if the initiative is approved

If the initiative 'No to a Switzerland of 10 million!' is approved, it is important that cross-border workers are prepared for any changes in immigration policies. First, it is advisable to closely monitor news and official communications from the Swiss government to stay updated on new restrictions and procedures for obtaining or renewing work permits.

Procedure to obtain a work permit

If the initiative is approved, it is likely that the Swiss government will introduce new immigration restrictions, which may include annual quotas for cross-border workers. In this case, it may be necessary to follow a specific procedure to obtain a work permit. In general, cross-border workers will need to submit a work permit application to the canton where they intend to work, providing documents such as the employment contract, passport, and certificate of residence.

Required documents

The documents required to obtain a work permit in Switzerland may vary depending on the canton and the sector of activity. In general, cross-border workers will need to present the following documents:

• Valid passport or identity document
• Signed employment contract
• Certificate of residence
• Criminal record certificate
• Training and qualification documents

Deadlines and renewals

Work permits in Switzerland have a variable duration depending on the type of permit and the sector of activity. In general, work permits for cross-border workers have a duration of one year and must be renewed annually. It is important to respect the deadlines for renewing the work permit to avoid sanctions or the loss of the right to work in Switzerland.

Useful tools

To help cross-border workers navigate the complex Swiss immigration system, there are several useful tools available online. For example, the SECO (State Secretariat for Economic Affairs) website provides detailed information on the procedures for obtaining a work permit and the required documents. Additionally, the DFE (Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research) website provides information on immigration policies and demographic statistics.

Net salary calculator

Another useful tool for cross-border workers is the net salary calculator, which allows you to easily calculate the net salary after taxes and social contributions. This tool can be particularly useful for cross-border workers who are evaluating a job offer in Switzerland and want to have a clear idea of their net salary.

To use the net salary calculator, simply enter some data such as the gross salary, the canton of residence, and the sector of activity. The calculator will then provide an estimate of the net salary after taxes and social contributions.

Conclusion

In conclusion, if the initiative 'No to a Switzerland of 10 million!' is approved, it is important that cross-border workers are prepared for any changes in immigration policies. Closely monitoring news and official communications from the Swiss government, following the correct procedure to obtain a work permit, and using useful tools such as the net salary calculator can help cross-border workers navigate the complex Swiss immigration system and ensure their right to work in Switzerland.

Calculate your net salary

Source: tio.ch