Gottardo: Delays, Costs, and Impact on Commuters

Context

In brief

Fresa Paulina reactivated at Airolo after 11 months of halt

Delay of 6-8 months due to geological issues: now evaluating how to recover

Last critical section of 400 meters still to be dug with special technique

Opening expected by 2030 but with possible financial delays

Key facts

• What: Resumption of works on the second tunnel of the Gottardo with the fresa Paulina after geological halt
• When: Halted in June 2024, works resumed in September 2024
• Where: Airolo (second tube), 5 km from the southern portal
• Who: USTRA (Swiss Federal Office of Transport) and project manager Udo Oppliger
• Technique: Slow excavation (60-80 cm/day) for broken rock vs 20 meters/fresa
• Cost: Financial consequences still in evaluation
• Deadline: Opening expected by 2030

The construction site of the second tunnel of the San Gottardo has resumed work after eleven months of halt, but the recovery of the lost time and the implications for the cross-border commuters of the Frontalier are still in the evaluation phase. The fresa Paulina, blocked in June 2024 due to 'significant geological difficulties', has resumed progress at Airolo, but the accumulated delay — estimated between 6 and 8 months — now requires a choice: to accelerate the works with financial consequences or to maintain the original schedule. The decision will be taken by the Ufficio federale dei trasporti svizzeri (USTRA), which has already anticipated the excavation of the most problematic section to avoid further delays.

The unexpected geological issue

The problem has concentrated in an area of 400 meters, at five kilometers from the southern portal, where the rock is 'gross deformations, broken rock and soft'. Here the progress is slowed down to 60-80 centimeters per day, against the 20 meters per day of the fresa. 'It is a critical zone — explains Udo Oppliger, project manager of the second tunnel — where the traditional technique is not enough. For this reason, we have anticipated the excavation to avoid a long period of waiting'.

The role of the cross-border commuters

If the gallery of the Gottardo were completed with a delay, the consequences for the cross-border commuters would be significant. The tunnel, once opened, should reduce the travel times between Lombardy and the Canton Ticino, with direct benefits for the cross-border commuters who every day cross the checkpoints of Brogeda, Chiasso or Ponte Tresa. 'Every delay — emphasizes Guido Biaggio, deputy director of USTRA — involves additional costs and a possible revision of the opening timelines'.

The official date remains 2030, but the uncertainties in financial and technical aspects could shift it. For the cross-border commuters, this would mean having to count on the current checkpoints for years more, with the related codes and waiting times. In the meantime, USTRA monitors every phase of the works, with particular attention to the additional costs that could burden the taxes of Swiss contributors — including the cross-border commuters who contribute to the local tax system.

'The construction site develops on several fronts and only this one has suffered an unexpected event' — Udo Oppliger, project manager USTRA

Operational details

Scenarios for Cross-Border Workers

The resumption of work on the Gotthard opens up two main scenarios for cross-border workers: an optimistic one, with recovery of delays, and a pessimistic one, with further delays. Let's analyze them.

Scenario 1: Partial Recovery of Delays

If USTRA decides to accelerate the excavation of the critical section — using special techniques or additional resources — the tunnel could open by 2031. This would mean:

• Reduction in travel times between Milan and Lugano from 2 to 1.5 hours (currently via the Gotthard railway), with direct benefits for commuters using the Brogeda or Chiasso crossings.
• Less pressure on current crossings, but not an immediate solution: queues at Ponte Tresa or Gaggiolo could persist until completion.
• Additional costs for cross-border workers: if acceleration requires extraordinary funding, these expenses could reflect — indirectly — in local taxes or pension contributions (AVS/LPP).

Scenario 2: Structural Delay

If USTRA opts for a more cautious approach, avoiding immediate additional costs, the tunnel could open only by 2032 or later. In this case:

• Cross-border workers will continue to rely on current crossings, with waiting times that — according to USTRA's historical data — can exceed 2 hours during peak times (e.g., traffic crossing data 2023).
• Impact on productivity: commuters working in Switzerland could lose daily work hours, with consequences for net income (calculable with the payslip simulator).
• Risk of further delays: if new geological difficulties emerge, the 2030 target could become unrealistic.

Comparison with the First Tunnel

The first Gotthard tunnel, opened in 2016, reduced railway travel times, but the second tunnel — for road traffic — is crucial for cross-border workers using cars. While the first tunnel benefited from a CHF 12 billion federal funding, the second — with accumulated delays — could require further investments. This raises a key question: who will pay the bill?

USTRA estimates indicate that every month of delay can cost CHF 5-10 million in lost productivity for commuters, not counting the environmental costs linked to increased traffic on existing crossings. For cross-border workers living in Italy but working in Ticino, this means:

• Higher expenses for fuel and tolls on current crossings.
• Less time available for personal or family activities, with possible repercussions on parental leave or family organization.
• Risk of work-related stress: according to a 2023 ISTAT study, 32% of Italian cross-border workers already reported difficulties related to commuting times — a percentage that could increase with further delays.

Current Situation of Crossings

While waiting for the Gotthard, cross-border workers using cars every day must deal with:

• Brogeda: average waiting times of 45 minutes during peak hours (official USTRA 2024 data).
• Chiasso: queues that can exceed an hour, with peaks during events like the Chiasso Fair.
• Ponte Tresa: slowest crossing, with travel times reaching 60 minutes.

In the absence of the new tunnel, these situations could worsen, with a direct impact on the cost of living for cross-border workers. For example, a commuter traveling daily between Chiasso and Mendrisio currently spends approximately CHF 1,200 per year on tolls and fuel — a figure that could increase by 20-30% in case of further delays in construction.

📊 Key Data on Commuting Traffic (USTRA 2024)

Useful planning tools

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Key points

What to do now: Practical steps for commuters

Evaluating a Ticino job offer? Simulate your net payslip: enter gross salary, marital status and municipality for a detailed breakdown.

Source: rsi.ch