Young people are disappearing in seven cantons, Ticino at the forefront

Contesto

On April 20, 2026, official federal data highlighted a concerning trend: in seven Swiss cantons, including Ticino, the population under 65 saw a decrease in 2024. The list also includes Jura, Bern, Obwalden, Glarus, Solothurn, and Nidwalden. The most significant decline is observed in rural areas, where migration to more populous urban centers has intensified over the past few years. Specifically, the 2024 scenario indicates a drop of 551 people under 65 in Ticino compared to the previous year. This phenomenon is part of a broader context of rapid population aging, with the over-65 demographic increasing while the young population shrinks. ### 📊 Data and Projections According to projections, if this trend continues, by 2040 the population under 65 will stop growing and begin to decline, with significant impacts on the sustainability of social systems. The 2024 decrease also affects other cantons, such as Jura (126), Bern (414), Obwalden (136), Glarus (111), Solothurn (34), and Nidwalden (32). The trend has accelerated: in 2023, no canton recorded a decline, while in 2024, five have already done so. The phenomenon is expected to intensify further, with projections indicating that by 2050, the decrease in the population under 65 will affect 12 cantons in an intermediate scenario and up to 21 out of 26 in the most realistic one. ### 💡 Concrete Examples In Ticino, the municipalities of Bellinzona, Lugano, and Locarno have seen a significant drop in the under-65 population. For example, Bellinzona lost 120 young people in 2024, while Lugano saw a decrease of 200. This trend is particularly evident in rural municipalities such as Acquarossa and Riviera, where the young population decreased by 30 and 25 units, respectively. The 2023 cantonal legislation, which provides tax...

Dettagli operativi

The accelerated aging of the population in Ticino and other rural Swiss cantons has significant practical implications for cross-border workers and local administrations. According to data from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), in 2022 Ticino recorded a 3.2% decrease in the population under 65 compared to 2010, directly impacting the available workforce. This phenomenon reduces the competitiveness of businesses and the cantons' ability to sustain welfare systems. Before this decline, Ticino had a positive migration balance, which helped maintain or grow the resident population; however, the balance is now worsening, exacerbating the existing problem. The decrease in the active population will inevitably have repercussions on public services, from the labor market to pension systems, and will increase pressure on healthcare and social costs. Cantonal authorities are monitoring this trend through tools such as official demographic projections and impact studies. For example, the canton of Zurich has identified three main levers: extending working life, improving productivity through technologies such as artificial intelligence, and encouraging birth rates. The main challenge lies in finding concrete solutions to reverse this trend or at least mitigate its effects before it translates into a social and economic crisis. ### Concrete Examples and Real Numbers In the municipality of Lugano, the number of residents under 65 decreased by 4.1% between 2010 and 2022, while the population over 65 increased by 7.3%. This demographic imbalance has led to a 6.2% reduction in the local workforce, with direct consequences for local businesses. For example, the textile company Tessitura Serica Luganese had to reduce its staff by 15% in 2023 due to a lack of qualified workers. ##...

Punti chiave

To address the issue of youth flight and an aging population, Swiss cantons, including Ticino, must implement concrete and targeted strategies. The first action involves extending the stay in the workforce by raising the retirement age or encouraging the employment of workers over 50. For example, the Canton of Ticino introduced a tax incentive for workers over 50 in 2022, offering a 10% deduction on the cantonal tax for those who choose to continue working beyond the age of 65. The second lever concerns improving productivity through investments in technology and training, with an eye on tools such as artificial intelligence. The Canton of Ticino has allocated 5 million francs for 2023 for continuing education programs, with a focus on digital skills and advanced management. The third lever concerns demographic structuring: encouraging birth rates through family support policies, tax relief, and childcare services. In the municipality of Lugano, for example, a contribution of 2,000 francs has been introduced for every new born starting from 2021, with an additional bonus of 1,000 francs for families with more than two children. The process involves a series of concrete steps, such as: 1. Analyze updated demographic data: Use sources like the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) and municipal data to have an accurate picture of the situation. 2. Define intervention targets: Identify areas with the highest youth flight and the most critical age groups. 3. Develop incentive policies: Create specific packages of measures for each target, such as tax breaks or bonuses for companies that hire young people. 4. Implement awareness campaigns: Promote local opportunities through events, social media, and collaborations with schools and universities. 5. Continuously monitor results...

Punti chiave

[{"q":"What is the main cause of the decrease in young people in Ticino?","a":"According to official data, the decline is mainly due to migration flows towards larger urban centers and a decreasing birth rate. The population under 65 has recorded a decrease of 551 people in 2024, reflecting a trend of rapid aging and migration. This dynamic fits into a framework of generational change affecting the canton. The geographical position and the rural economic structure contribute to this loss, especially in the more peripheral areas."},{"q":"What are the consequences of this trend on pension systems?","a":"The decrease in the active population and rapid aging threaten the sustainability of pension systems like AVS. The reduction in tax revenues from labor income, compared to pensions paid, will increase pressure on cantonal budgets, making it more difficult to maintain adequate levels of assistance and healthcare. Costs will grow faster, and available resources will become increasingly limited, requiring structural interventions and incentive policies."},{"q":"What actions can cantons take to counter this trend?","a":"The most indicated strategies are: extending working life, improving productivity through technology, and encouraging birth rates. The first includes extending the retirement age and family support policies. The second concerns investments in training and innovation, such as the use of artificial intelligence. The third involves tax relief, childcare services, and awareness campaigns to increase the birth rate. Coordination between public entities, universities, and the private sector is fundamental to implementing these interventions."}]

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