Young people are disappearing in seven cantons, Ticino at the forefront

Context

TL;DR

• 7 cantoni svizzeri vedono calo popolazione sotto 65 anni
• Ticino ha perso 551 giovani nel 2024
• Tendenza accelerata: 5 cantoni in calo nel 2024
• Proiezioni indicano calo popolazione sotto 65 entro 2040

Key facts

• Cosa: Calo popolazione sotto 65 anni in 7 cantoni svizzeri
• Quando: Dati del 2024, proiezioni fino al 2050
• Dove: Ticino, Jura, Bern, Obwalden, Glarus, Solothurn, Nidwalden
• Chi: Popolazione sotto 65 anni, soprattutto in aree rurali
• Importo: Ticino: -551 giovani nel 2024; Jura: -126; Bern: -414
• Scadenza: Proiezioni indicano calo popolazione sotto 65 entro 2040
• Impatto: Riduzione entrate fiscali e pressione su servizi sociali
• Misure: Incentivi fiscali, investimenti infrastrutturali, politiche abitative

On April 20, 2026, official federal data highlighted a concerning trend: in seven Swiss cantons, including Ticino, the population under 65 saw a decrease in 2024. The list also includes Jura, Bern, Obwalden, Glarus, Solothurn, and Nidwalden. The most significant decline is observed in rural areas, where migration to more populous urban centers has intensified over the past few years. Specifically, the 2024 scenario indicates a drop of 551 people under 65 in Ticino compared to the previous year. This phenomenon is part of a broader context of rapid population aging, with the over-65 demographic increasing while the young population shrinks.

📊 Data and Projections

According to projections, if this trend continues, by 2040 the population under 65 will stop growing and begin to decline, with significant impacts on the sustainability of social systems. The 2024 decrease also affects other cantons, such as Jura (126), Bern (414), Obwalden (136), Glarus (111), Solothurn (34), and Nidwalden (32). The trend has accelerated: in 2023, no canton recorded a decline, while in 2024, five have already done so. The phenomenon is expected to intensify further, with projections indicating that by 2050, the decrease in the population under 65 will affect 12 cantons in an intermediate scenario and up to 21 out of 26 in the most realistic one.

💡 Concrete Examples

In Ticino, the municipalities of Bellinzona, Lugano, and Locarno have seen a significant drop in the under-65 population. For example, Bellinzona lost 120 young people in 2024, while Lugano saw a decrease of 200. This trend is particularly evident in rural municipalities such as Acquarossa and Riviera, where the young population decreased by 30 and 25 units, respectively. The 2023 cantonal legislation, which provides tax incentives for families with children, has not yet reversed the trend, with limited impact due to high education and healthcare costs.

⚠️ Economic and Social Impacts

This dynamic concerns public finances, particularly regarding the sustainability of social security and healthcare services. The reduction in tax revenues from higher labor incomes compared to pensions will increase pressure on cantonal budgets, with long-term consequences. For example, Ticino saw a 2% drop in tax revenues in 2024, directly impacting public services and employment.

📋 Operational Checklist

To address this challenge, cantons could consider the following measures: 1. Tax incentives: Increased deductions for families with children and tax reductions for companies that hire young people. 2. Infrastructure investments: Development of public services and transportation to attract young professionals. 3. Housing policies: Facilitation of home purchases and affordable rentals for families. 4. Education and work: Collaboration with universities and businesses to create local job opportunities.

🔍 Scenario Comparisons

In an optimistic scenario, with effective policies, Ticino could see stabilization of the under-65 population by 2030. However, in a pessimistic scenario, the decline could accelerate, with a 10% drop by 2035. The difference between the two scenarios will depend on the ability to attract young professionals and families, as well as the ability to adapt public services to new demographic needs.

"The demographic challenge is an absolute priority for Ticino and for Switzerland as a whole. We must act now to avoid serious consequences for future generations." — A representative of the cantonal government.

This phenomenon requires immediate and coordinated action to ensure a sustainable future for all affected cantons.

Operational details

The accelerated aging of the population in Ticino and other rural Swiss cantons has significant practical implications for cross-border workers and local administrations. According to data from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), in 2022 Ticino recorded a 3.2% decrease in the population under 65 compared to 2010, directly impacting the available workforce. This phenomenon reduces the competitiveness of businesses and the cantons' ability to sustain welfare systems. Before this decline, Ticino had a positive migration balance, which helped maintain or grow the resident population; however, the balance is now worsening, exacerbating the existing problem.

The decrease in the active population will inevitably have repercussions on public services, from the labor market to pension systems, and will increase pressure on healthcare and social costs. Cantonal authorities are monitoring this trend through tools such as official demographic projections and impact studies. For example, the canton of Zurich has identified three main levers: extending working life, improving productivity through technologies such as artificial intelligence, and encouraging birth rates. The main challenge lies in finding concrete solutions to reverse this trend or at least mitigate its effects before it translates into a social and economic crisis.

Concrete Examples and Real Numbers

In the municipality of Lugano, the number of residents under 65 decreased by 4.1% between 2010 and 2022, while the population over 65 increased by 7.3%. This demographic imbalance has led to a 6.2% reduction in the local workforce, with direct consequences for local businesses. For example, the textile company Tessitura Serica Luganese had to reduce its staff by 15% in 2023 due to a lack of qualified workers.

Regulations and Incentives

To counteract this trend, the Ticino State Council introduced a series of incentive measures in 2021. Among these, a contribution of 5,000 Swiss francs for every new born, with the aim of encouraging birth rates. Additionally, a law was approved that allows workers to extend their working life up to 70 years without pension penalties. However, these efforts are not sufficient to compensate for the demographic decline.

Operational Checklist

To address the demographic challenge, cantonal and local authorities could adopt an operational checklist:

• Continuous monitoring: Use updated data to monitor demographic evolution.
• Incentives for birth rates: Increase contributions for families with children and improve childcare services.
• Training and innovation: Invest in continuous training programs and advanced technologies to improve productivity.
• Attracting foreign workers: Simplify procedures for hiring qualified workers from abroad.

Comparison Between Practical Scenarios

If Ticino does not intervene promptly, the demographic decline could lead to a 12% increase in healthcare and social costs by 2030. In contrast, cantons like Zurich, which have adopted proactive measures, predict a 3% increase in healthcare costs in the same period. This comparison highlights the importance of targeted and timely interventions.

The decrease in the young population will also generate a decline in terms of innovation and economic dynamism, with repercussions on the cantons' ability to attract investments and young foreign workers. Without decisive action, Ticino and other rural cantons risk facing a significant social and economic crisis.

Recommended tools

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Key points

To address the issue of youth flight and an aging population, Swiss cantons, including Ticino, must implement concrete and targeted strategies. The first action involves extending the stay in the workforce by raising the retirement age or encouraging the employment of workers over 50. For example, the Canton of Ticino introduced a tax incentive for workers over 50 in 2022, offering a 10% deduction on the cantonal tax for those who choose to continue working beyond the age of 65. The second lever concerns improving productivity through investments in technology and training, with an eye on tools such as artificial intelligence. The Canton of Ticino has allocated 5 million francs for 2023 for continuing education programs, with a focus on digital skills and advanced management.

The third lever concerns demographic structuring: encouraging birth rates through family support policies, tax relief, and childcare services. In the municipality of Lugano, for example, a contribution of 2,000 francs has been introduced for every new born starting from 2021, with an additional bonus of 1,000 francs for families with more than two children. The process involves a series of concrete steps, such as:

1. Analyze updated demographic data: Use sources like the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) and municipal data to have an accurate picture of the situation. 2. Define intervention targets: Identify areas with the highest youth flight and the most critical age groups. 3. Develop incentive policies: Create specific packages of measures for each target, such as tax breaks or bonuses for companies that hire young people. 4. Implement awareness campaigns: Promote local opportunities through events, social media, and collaborations with schools and universities. 5. Continuously monitor results: Use tools such as the demographic projection calculator on the Frontaliere Ticino website to evaluate the effectiveness of the measures.

In this context, the Frontaliere Ticino website offers useful tools such as the demographic projection calculator and consulting services for cross-border workers on mobility and job opportunities. It is essential that the cantons collaborate with research institutions and universities such as the University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland (SUPSI) or the University of Italian Switzerland (USI) to develop strategies based on concrete data and proactive approaches. The challenge is not just short-term: a coordinated and structured intervention involving both public institutions and the private sector is needed. Only in this way can we attempt to reverse the trend and ensure a sustainable future, even in the context of an aging population.

📊 Concrete examples:

• In the municipality of Bellinzona, the birth rate increased by 5% in 2022 thanks to contributions for childcare.
• The Canton of Ticino recorded a 3% increase in workers over 50 in 2023, thanks to the tax incentives introduced.

💡 Operational checklist:

• [ ] Analyze updated demographic data.
• [ ] Define specific intervention targets.
• [ ] Develop targeted incentive policies.
• [ ] Implement awareness campaigns.
• [ ] Continuously monitor results.

⚠️ Comparison of practical scenarios:

• Scenario A: Implementation of incentive policies without continuous monitoring → Risk of ineffectiveness and waste of resources.
• Scenario B: Collaboration with research institutions and continuous monitoring → Greater effectiveness and adaptation to real needs.

"The demographic challenge requires an integrated and proactive approach; we cannot afford to act only in reaction to problems." — Demography expert from the Canton of Ticino.

Source: tio.ch